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Forums - Sales Discussion - When will the switch outsell the ps4?

 

When will the switch outsell the ps4?

Second half of 2022 33 11.54%
 
First half of 2023 24 8.39%
 
Second half of 2023 35 12.24%
 
First half of 2024 15 5.24%
 
Second half of 2024 16 5.59%
 
First half of 2025 7 2.45%
 
Second half of 2025 5 1.75%
 
Later than above 2 0.70%
 
Never 149 52.10%
 
Total:286
Nu-13 on 11 January 2020
Hiku said:

It took Switch about 3 years to reach half of PS4's numbers.
If PS4 stops selling today, and Switch keeps selling at the same pace for another 3 years, it'd reach PS4.

But PS4 won't stop selling yet, and Switch's next 3 years are less likely to be as good as its first 3.

I'm not sure if Switch will even get that high. But if it does, then I'd say first half of 2024.

You are correct that the next 3 years aren't likely to be as good as 2017 + 2018 + 2019. It's far more likely that they will be even better.



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xl-klaudkil on 11 January 2020
Nu-13 said:
Hiku said:

It took Switch about 3 years to reach half of PS4's numbers.
If PS4 stops selling today, and Switch keeps selling at the same pace for another 3 years, it'd reach PS4.

But PS4 won't stop selling yet, and Switch's next 3 years are less likely to be as good as its first 3.

I'm not sure if Switch will even get that high. But if it does, then I'd say first half of 2024.

You are correct that the next 3 years aren't likely to be as good as 2017 + 2018 + 2019. It's far more likely that they will be even better.

Soo instead of decline, its going to sell even more? Making it the only game system ever to do that, oke...now that i think about it, the sales of the ps4 are not really that impressive anymore.



 

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nier1993 on 11 January 2020

I think 2019 will be the best year for switch. It hit the 200$ price with a massive nextgen pokemon with out no real competition aside from 2 consoles on the way out. Next year there are many people that are gonna want ps5 and xsex as holiday gifts just my opinion.



Barkley on 11 January 2020

I don't think it will. 2021 will be very telling.



Farsala on 11 January 2020

It won't, because the Switch 2 will release. If we simply go with VGC's numbers, Switch's stronghold over the PS4 is Japan.

As a % of sales:

World: 47%
Japan: 134%
Europe: 30.6%
USA: 54.2%
Other: 32.4%

Japan is a limited market and the Switch is not outpacing the 3DS there so it is likely to sell less than 25m, a 15m advantage over the PS4. In USA the Switch might surpass the PS4, but only barely. That leaves Europe and Others with 30-33% vs 47% world, how will the Switch catch up there or come close enough?



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rapsuperstar31 on 11 January 2020

I don't think it will, but than again the Switch has been proving most of us wrong from the start. If its still doing well through 2021 and 2022 when the PS5 and Xbox get into a groove it will have a chance.



Nu-13 on 11 January 2020
Farsala said:
It won't, because the Switch 2 will release. If we simply go with VGC's numbers, Switch's stronghold over the PS4 is Japan.

As a % of sales:

World: 47%
Japan: 134%
Europe: 30.6%
USA: 54.2%
Other: 32.4%

Japan is a limited market and the Switch is not outpacing the 3DS there so it is likely to sell less than 25m, a 15m advantage over the PS4. In USA the Switch might surpass the PS4, but only barely. That leaves Europe and Others with 30-33% vs 47% world, how will the Switch catch up there or come close enough?

The switch is very likely to outsell the 3ds in Japan. But let's go with your numbers anyway. There is no "might" or "barely", the switch is on track to confortably outsell the ps4 in USA. You add that to Japan's huge advantage and the better question is: How will the ps4 make up for that with just Europe + others?



LGBTDBZBBQ on 11 January 2020
Blood_Tears said:
It wouldn't matter either way nowadays since Switch had to go the handheld route with the lite and a 100 dollar price discount in order to tie PS4's best year of 2017. Pointless to compare PS4 with a handheld.

PS4 1TB was sold at $199 during the holidays in order to reach that number



Leynos on 11 January 2020

If you consider Switch to be a console then it will end up as the 3rd best selling console ever. Behind PS4 and PS2.
If you consider it a handheld first and accept the 118 million Game Boy sales as a whole then again Switch will likely be the 3rd best selling ever. Behind DS and Game Boy.

What is PS4 at 106 million? I think Switch's max potential is 103 million.



Bite my shiny metal cockpit!

Farsala on 11 January 2020
Nu-13 said:
Farsala said:
It won't, because the Switch 2 will release. If we simply go with VGC's numbers, Switch's stronghold over the PS4 is Japan.

As a % of sales:

World: 47%
Japan: 134%
Europe: 30.6%
USA: 54.2%
Other: 32.4%

Japan is a limited market and the Switch is not outpacing the 3DS there so it is likely to sell less than 25m, a 15m advantage over the PS4. In USA the Switch might surpass the PS4, but only barely. That leaves Europe and Others with 30-33% vs 47% world, how will the Switch catch up there or come close enough?

The switch is very likely to outsell the 3ds in japan. But let's go with your numbers anyway. There is no "might" or "barely", the switch is on track to confortably outsell the ps4 in USA. You add that to Japan's huge advantage and the better question is: How will the ps4 make up for that with just Europe + others?

If we give the Switch the 15m advantage in Japan, then we extrapolate the other numbers the same way.

At 24m vs 9m that is from 134% to 266%, so 1.99 or 2 for quick math.

Japan: 266%= 24m

Europe: 61.2%= 26.62m

USA: 108.4%=  38m

Other: 64.8%= 12.11m

World: 94%= 100.73m

But that is just current PS4 numbers, the PS4 will of course keep selling.

To beat the PS4 you need a ratio of ~114% which would be >120m. A 114% ratio would be the equivalent of the Switch selling 29m in Japan and 46m in USA, which I don't see happening. But worse is the Europe and Others ratios.

Last edited by Farsala - on 11 January 2020