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Forums - Sales Discussion - When will the switch outsell the ps4?

 

When will the switch outsell the ps4?

Second half of 2022 33 11.54%
 
First half of 2023 24 8.39%
 
Second half of 2023 35 12.24%
 
First half of 2024 15 5.24%
 
Second half of 2024 16 5.59%
 
First half of 2025 7 2.45%
 
Second half of 2025 5 1.75%
 
Later than above 2 0.70%
 
Never 149 52.10%
 
Total:286
Slownenberg said:
Switch is obviously going to have a much higher top year this year than PS4 ever had, and it is already ahead of PS4 in sales at this point in its lifetime. And next year it will only extend the lead. It's looking very good for Switch, but it still feels like perhaps by year 6 Switch sales will be trending below PS4 in annual sales and since PS4 will likely sell much better than Switch in retirement I think the Switch won't end up catching PS4, even though right now it sorta seems like there is no way it won't beat PS4. Both systems are having a great year this year, considering where PS4 is in its life cycle, so I'd up both my predictions of lifetime sales. Previously I thought PS4 might end up at 125mil, now I think it'll do 130mil. And I thought Switch might end up around 115mil, now I think 125mil is looking good.

I'm expecting Switch to be well above that but overall that's a good analysis



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The general feeling about Switch outselling PS4 went like this

2016 - NX doa
2017 - impossible
2018 - Not going to happen lol
2019 - Still hard and not going to happen ....
2020 - Oh Sh*t(Animal Crossing happened)
2021 -
2022 -
2023 -
2024 -



All those people that voted 'Never' are startin' to sweat a bit now.



You know what fuck it, gonna say first half of 2023.



theres a chance, but maybe never say never? haha!



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If it does happen either 2023 or 2024. I find it funny when long threads like this that keep getting bumped are created by a user that has been banned.



Switch timeline from the doom of the console to the possibility of surpassing PS4
1. U̶n̶d̶e̶r̶p̶o̶w̶e̶r̶e̶d̶ ̶h̶a̶r̶d̶w̶a̶r̶e̶ ̶i̶n̶ ̶c̶o̶m̶p̶a̶r̶i̶s̶o̶n̶ ̶t̶o̶ ̶P̶S̶4̶ ̶a̶n̶d̶ ̶X̶B̶O̶
2. T̶o̶o̶ ̶e̶x̶p̶e̶n̶s̶i̶v̶e̶ ̶
3. N̶o̶ ̶3̶r̶d̶ ̶p̶a̶r̶t̶y̶ ̶s̶u̶p̶p̶o̶r̶t̶s̶
4. W̶i̶i̶U̶ ̶p̶o̶r̶t̶s̶(̶M̶K̶8̶D̶,̶ ̶N̶S̶M̶B̶U̶D̶,̶ ̶a̶n̶d̶ ̶e̶t̶c̶)̶ ̶a̶r̶e̶ ̶n̶o̶t̶ ̶g̶o̶i̶n̶g̶ ̶t̶o̶ ̶h̶e̶l̶p̶
5. A̶f̶t̶e̶r̶ ̶W̶i̶i̶U̶ ̶o̶w̶n̶e̶r̶s̶ ̶b̶o̶u̶g̶h̶t̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶ ̶s̶y̶s̶t̶e̶m̶ ̶N̶i̶n̶t̶e̶n̶d̶o̶ ̶S̶w̶i̶t̶c̶h̶ ̶s̶a̶l̶e̶s̶ ̶w̶i̶l̶l̶ ̶s̶l̶o̶w̶ ̶d̶o̶w̶n̶
6. T̶h̶e̶y̶ ̶b̶l̶e̶w̶ ̶a̶l̶l̶ ̶o̶f̶ ̶b̶i̶g̶ ̶g̶a̶m̶e̶s̶ ̶o̶n̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶ ̶f̶i̶r̶s̶t̶ ̶y̶e̶a̶r̶ ̶o̶f̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶ ̶s̶y̶s̶t̶e̶m̶(̶B̶O̶T̶W̶,̶ ̶M̶K̶8̶D̶,̶ ̶S̶p̶l̶a̶t̶o̶o̶n̶ ̶2̶,̶ ̶a̶n̶d̶ ̶S̶M̶O̶)̶ ̶r̶i̶p̶ ̶2̶0̶1̶8̶
7. N̶i̶n̶t̶e̶n̶d̶o̶ ̶h̶a̶s̶ ̶n̶o̶t̶h̶i̶n̶g̶ ̶f̶o̶r̶ ̶2̶0̶1̶9̶ ̶a̶f̶t̶e̶r̶ ̶r̶e̶l̶e̶a̶s̶i̶n̶g̶ ̶h̶e̶a̶v̶y̶ ̶h̶i̶t̶t̶e̶r̶s̶ ̶l̶i̶k̶e̶ ̶S̶m̶a̶s̶h̶ ̶B̶r̶o̶s̶ ̶U̶l̶t̶i̶m̶a̶t̶e̶ ̶a̶n̶d̶ ̶P̶o̶k̶e̶m̶o̶n̶ ̶L̶e̶t̶'̶s̶ ̶G̶o̶ ̶P̶/̶E̶
8. N̶i̶n̶t̶e̶n̶d̶o̶ ̶h̶a̶s̶ ̶n̶o̶t̶h̶i̶n̶g̶ ̶f̶o̶r̶ ̶2̶0̶2̶0̶ ̶a̶f̶t̶e̶r̶ ̶r̶e̶l̶e̶a̶s̶i̶n̶g̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶ ̶l̶a̶s̶t̶ ̶h̶e̶a̶v̶y̶ ̶h̶i̶t̶t̶e̶r̶ ̶f̶o̶r̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶ ̶s̶y̶s̶t̶e̶m̶ ̶"̶P̶o̶k̶e̶m̶o̶n̶ ̶S̶w̶S̶h̶"̶
9. N̶i̶n̶t̶e̶n̶d̶o̶ ̶a̶l̶r̶e̶a̶d̶y̶ ̶r̶e̶l̶e̶a̶s̶e̶d̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶ ̶l̶a̶s̶t̶ ̶h̶e̶a̶v̶y̶ ̶h̶i̶t̶t̶e̶r̶ ̶A̶n̶i̶m̶a̶l̶ ̶C̶r̶o̶s̶s̶i̶n̶g̶ ̶a̶n̶d̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶ ̶s̶a̶l̶e̶s̶ ̶w̶i̶l̶l̶ ̶b̶e̶ ̶i̶m̶p̶a̶c̶t̶e̶d̶ ̶g̶r̶e̶a̶t̶l̶y̶ ̶b̶y̶ ̶N̶e̶x̶t̶ ̶G̶e̶n̶ ̶C̶o̶n̶s̶o̶l̶e̶s̶

Nintendo has a lot of cards to play this time in order to maintain the sales momentum
1. Price Drop
2. New SKU
3. Aggressive holidays promotions
4. Upcoming 1st party 10 million and above sellers(BOTW2, 3d Mario, 2d Mario, Tomogachi, Next Remake and Mainline Pokemon, and etc)
5. Animal Crossing monstrous leg and RFA stock
6. Evergreen monsters like BOTW, MK8D, SMO, and SSBU still selling wonderfully
7. Price reduction of old first party games



NEVER!

The upcoming economic crash will eat people's disposable income to travel and game, and handhelds will tank. =P



LGBTDBZBBQ said:
Switch timeline from the doom of the console to the possibility of surpassing PS4
1. U̶n̶d̶e̶r̶p̶o̶w̶e̶r̶e̶d̶ ̶h̶a̶r̶d̶w̶a̶r̶e̶ ̶i̶n̶ ̶c̶o̶m̶p̶a̶r̶i̶s̶o̶n̶ ̶t̶o̶ ̶P̶S̶4̶ ̶a̶n̶d̶ ̶X̶B̶O̶
2. T̶o̶o̶ ̶e̶x̶p̶e̶n̶s̶i̶v̶e̶ ̶
3. N̶o̶ ̶3̶r̶d̶ ̶p̶a̶r̶t̶y̶ ̶s̶u̶p̶p̶o̶r̶t̶s̶
4. W̶i̶i̶U̶ ̶p̶o̶r̶t̶s̶(̶M̶K̶8̶D̶,̶ ̶N̶S̶M̶B̶U̶D̶,̶ ̶a̶n̶d̶ ̶e̶t̶c̶)̶ ̶a̶r̶e̶ ̶n̶o̶t̶ ̶g̶o̶i̶n̶g̶ ̶t̶o̶ ̶h̶e̶l̶p̶
5. A̶f̶t̶e̶r̶ ̶W̶i̶i̶U̶ ̶o̶w̶n̶e̶r̶s̶ ̶b̶o̶u̶g̶h̶t̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶ ̶s̶y̶s̶t̶e̶m̶ ̶N̶i̶n̶t̶e̶n̶d̶o̶ ̶S̶w̶i̶t̶c̶h̶ ̶s̶a̶l̶e̶s̶ ̶w̶i̶l̶l̶ ̶s̶l̶o̶w̶ ̶d̶o̶w̶n̶
6. T̶h̶e̶y̶ ̶b̶l̶e̶w̶ ̶a̶l̶l̶ ̶o̶f̶ ̶b̶i̶g̶ ̶g̶a̶m̶e̶s̶ ̶o̶n̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶ ̶f̶i̶r̶s̶t̶ ̶y̶e̶a̶r̶ ̶o̶f̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶ ̶s̶y̶s̶t̶e̶m̶(̶B̶O̶T̶W̶,̶ ̶M̶K̶8̶D̶,̶ ̶S̶p̶l̶a̶t̶o̶o̶n̶ ̶2̶,̶ ̶a̶n̶d̶ ̶S̶M̶O̶)̶ ̶r̶i̶p̶ ̶2̶0̶1̶8̶
7. N̶i̶n̶t̶e̶n̶d̶o̶ ̶h̶a̶s̶ ̶n̶o̶t̶h̶i̶n̶g̶ ̶f̶o̶r̶ ̶2̶0̶1̶9̶ ̶a̶f̶t̶e̶r̶ ̶r̶e̶l̶e̶a̶s̶i̶n̶g̶ ̶h̶e̶a̶v̶y̶ ̶h̶i̶t̶t̶e̶r̶s̶ ̶l̶i̶k̶e̶ ̶S̶m̶a̶s̶h̶ ̶B̶r̶o̶s̶ ̶U̶l̶t̶i̶m̶a̶t̶e̶ ̶a̶n̶d̶ ̶P̶o̶k̶e̶m̶o̶n̶ ̶L̶e̶t̶'̶s̶ ̶G̶o̶ ̶P̶/̶E̶
8. N̶i̶n̶t̶e̶n̶d̶o̶ ̶h̶a̶s̶ ̶n̶o̶t̶h̶i̶n̶g̶ ̶f̶o̶r̶ ̶2̶0̶2̶0̶ ̶a̶f̶t̶e̶r̶ ̶r̶e̶l̶e̶a̶s̶i̶n̶g̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶ ̶l̶a̶s̶t̶ ̶h̶e̶a̶v̶y̶ ̶h̶i̶t̶t̶e̶r̶ ̶f̶o̶r̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶ ̶s̶y̶s̶t̶e̶m̶ ̶"̶P̶o̶k̶e̶m̶o̶n̶ ̶S̶w̶S̶h̶"̶
9. N̶i̶n̶t̶e̶n̶d̶o̶ ̶a̶l̶r̶e̶a̶d̶y̶ ̶r̶e̶l̶e̶a̶s̶e̶d̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶ ̶l̶a̶s̶t̶ ̶h̶e̶a̶v̶y̶ ̶h̶i̶t̶t̶e̶r̶ ̶A̶n̶i̶m̶a̶l̶ ̶C̶r̶o̶s̶s̶i̶n̶g̶ ̶a̶n̶d̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶ ̶s̶a̶l̶e̶s̶ ̶w̶i̶l̶l̶ ̶b̶e̶ ̶i̶m̶p̶a̶c̶t̶e̶d̶ ̶g̶r̶e̶a̶t̶l̶y̶ ̶b̶y̶ ̶N̶e̶x̶t̶ ̶G̶e̶n̶ ̶C̶o̶n̶s̶o̶l̶e̶s̶

Nintendo has a lot of cards to play this time in order to maintain the sales momentum
1. Price Drop
2. New SKU
3. Aggressive holidays promotions
4. Upcoming 1st party 10 million and above sellers(BOTW2, 3d Mario, 2d Mario, Tomogachi, Next Remake and Mainline Pokemon, and etc)
5. Animal Crossing monstrous leg and RFA stock
6. Evergreen monsters like BOTW, MK8D, SMO, and SSBU still selling wonderfully
7. Price reduction of old first party games

Yeah this is on point. Nintendo has yet to do anything to increase Switch sales other than launch the Lite.

Like this guy says, between a couple future price drops, a premium model probably coming out in a year, actually having holiday promotions/discounts which they pretty much haven't even done yet, huge mega selling games still to come, AC (and in Japan RFA) continuing to push sales aggressively, an amazing lineup of existing evergreens, and at some point a Nintendo Selects group of $30 first party games, plus let's not mention that 3rd party releases on the Switch are increasing each year, Nintendo has plenty of levers to pull to keep sales high for years to come.

In terms of system selling (10+ million) first party games, yeah there is BotW2, possibly another 3D Mario, a first brand new 2D Mario at some point, one or two more Pokemon games, as quoted above. But then there is also the rumored Mario Collection that would certainly be a 10+ million selling game. I would say a 3D World port but if there's two new 3D Mario games, a 3D Mario Collection, Mario Maker 2, 2D Mario port, and a brand new 2D Mario game, I'm not sure a 3D World port would find enough room to hit 10 million sales, but its possible. Also it could be possible Nintendo does a Zelda Collection for Zelda's 35th anniversary next year which could very likely also hit 10 million sales. Then there's the fact that MK8, AC, and Smash will all sell another 10 million from here on out, and BotW might even as well so you could even sorta count those as future 10+ million sellers just from future sales. It's also possible something like a new MH game is released on the Switch that could sell 10 million. Also possible Nintendo comes out with a couple other games that reach 10 million that we aren't even thinking about, including something like a Switch Sports or a second kart-style racing game the way N64 had both DKR and MK. And of course there's the possibility (and hopefully reality) of a couple more Ring Fit games, which perhaps individually might not do 10 million but all together a Ring Fit series could easily blow past another 10 million in sales, beyond what RFA has already done.

So lots and lots of possible future mega selling games to continue to drive adoption of the Switch, plus all those other things.



src said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

This post lacks context, and thus leads you to wrong conclusions.

Switch is trailing the 3DS in Japan... but the advantage of the 3DS is shrinking fast, as the latter built it's advantage on a huge pricecut and a new model, and those effects are already over and 3DS weekly sales dropping down hard while the Switch is gaining new heights and reaching new horizons. Switch will overtake the 3DS launch aligned next year, as this year is the last one the 3DS had somewhat decent sales in Japan (~3.1M), which should be barely enough to keep the Switch at bay with the lead it had built up in the past. But next year the 3DS stands no chance as the sales drop down to 2.1M, less than the Switch sold Year-to-date.

Switch is also a global console. You might be surprised, but if you go to Charts in the header and look up Platform Totals, you'll find that the Switch is already on the 9th spot there. While the PS4 will most probably win this category over the Switch, the lead should end up being less than 5M and is more than cancelled out bei either North America or Japan.

This leaves us with Europe, and the PS4 will need to build it's lead there. But the Switch, while not nearly selling as well as the PS4 over there, is still doing quite decent and should sell at least as well as the PS3 or Wii did.

All this means that the advantage in Europe will be about 20M (give or take) and up to 5M in RoW. And 25M should be manageable with US and Japan unless the Switch crashes down like the Wii did, but the reasons why the Wii crashed are not given for the Switch.

SW is 1.8 million behind 3DS at this moment in time. SW is not gaining new heights in terms of hardware, it still hasn't beat the 3DS peak of 5.5 million.

Your data is also unreliable. Refer to official data from the actual manufacturers.

PS4 sellthrough in US + Japan = 36 + 9 million  = 45 million. Thats 45/110 = 41%

NSW sellthrough US + Japan = 35.56 million per their FY report = 35.56/55.77 = 64%

To even compare PS4's global reach compared to SW is incorrect. Not to mention PS4 still has not got a price cut as well.

1.1M left and the chance to outsell PS4 is very High in Worldwide without any price cut.