Forums - Sales Discussion - When will the switch outsell the ps4?

When will the switch outsell the ps4?

Second half of 2022 7 4.09%
 
First half of 2023 4 2.34%
 
Second half of 2023 16 9.36%
 
First half of 2024 8 4.68%
 
Second half of 2024 14 8.19%
 
First half of 2025 6 3.51%
 
Second half of 2025 4 2.34%
 
Later than above 1 0.58%
 
Never 111 64.91%
 
Total:171
victor83fernandes said:
padib said:

Sorry I don't remember you being right before. Rather I remember you typically being awefully wrong.

The Switch is a platform that is scalable, as I mentioned in my post if you bothered to read it. As such, it can go with multiple revisions for many years, and can sell also with continued momentum like something you have never really seen before in a console.

My predictions for PS4 are based off the Tools -> Hardware by Date tool on vgchartz. If you haven't used it before, I invite you to do so.

And please don't pretend that I am taking drugs, I find it offensive.

I was right when I said the wii was going to sell way more than gamecube and I was right when I said the switch would sell way more than the wiiU. I was right when I said the ps4 would sell way more than Xbox one and I was right when I said the new consoles would come end of 2020 when everyone was saying 2019 a few years back.

If you get your predictions from hardware by date, then the wii would have sold minimum 150 million by now as it was a phenomenon. 

If you use the same tool and match sales ps4 vs switch, you'd know they sold about the same for the first years, so the switch could outsell the ps4 in the end when ps4 goes out of production, lets say in 8-9 years.

Then again, I don't need tools, I have a brain, look at 3ds, it was outselling the ps3 for quite a while, still haven't out sold it to this date.

Switch can be scalable, but next gen games will be far too advanced to scale it to a tablet device. From next year the only AAA 3rd party will be remasters or current gen ports or low budget games.

Same with 3DS, there were newer games that couldn't run on the older 3ds (xenoblades for example even tough it was much worse than the wii version), so many of those 3ds sales were not new consumers, but people just upgrading.

In 2019 Nintendo sold really well due mostly to the LITE switch, which sold to people who only wanted a portable, but now there's not much reason to buy it, most people who wanted a hydrid or portable already bought it.

If they come out with an upgraded switch (lets call it a + version) most buyers would be people who already have a switch.

To put things into perspective, lets look at the numbers of software sold in total, probably things would look very different, I believe ps consumers buy more games than Nintendo consumers. 

I have all consoles, but I do have more games on wiiU than switch, if we really think about it the switch didn't get many exclusives in 3 years, Xenoblades 2, Mario galaxy, Mario + rabbids and Luigi mansion 3, I never liked smash bros, I don't do fighting games and I don't like splatoon, I do not play online ever So what else is there on the switch? Most of third party games I'd rather play in 4K on my 100inch projector with much better graphics and performance at much cheaper prices, example witcher 3, looks horrible on the switch, performs worse, and costs 3x the price.

Last Quarter shipment number.
Switch Hybrid - 7.58M
Switch Lite - 3.24M

Japan(Biggest portable market) January 2020 sales data
Switch Hybrid - 416k
Switch Lite - 225K


I think it's time for you to use facts instead of imaginary thoughts. Nintendo is currently facing a stock problem for Hybrid Switch in Japan while Switch Lite is readily available. 



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victor83fernandes said:
TruckOSaurus said:

How will the PS4 reach 150 million consoles sold exactly? It was about 41 million consoles away at the end of 2019 and last year it sold 14.7m. The January 2020 numbers are at 20% below 2019 numbers and the release of the PS5 will definitely affect its end of year numbers.

Shipped at the end of 2019: 108.9m
Shipped at the end of 2020: 120m (about 11m, that would be only a 25% drop, it could be sharper the PS3 dropped 31% in the year PS4 was released)
Shipped at the end of 2021: 125.5m(about 5.5m, that would be a 50% drop,for reference the PS3 dropped 59% the year following the PS4's release)

The way I see it, the road to 130m is very doable but 150m is out of the question.

I can bet you on this if you want, it will reach 150 million easily just like the ps2 reached 155million, sales aligned the ps4 is outselling the ps2 WITHOUT AN OFFICIAL PRICE DROP.

Sony just needs to drop the price to 150dollars and the thing will easily sell to people who cant afford new consoles, or people who already have a ps4 but gets defective.

And are we forgetting the biggest ps4 game ever is still to be released this year? Game of year 2020 will most likely be Last of us 2, a ps4 exclusive, if that together with a permanent price drop, doesn't sell consoles I don't know what will.

Also, you counted 2021? do you even realize that's only 1 year after ps5 launches? Go check how many years the ps1 and ps2 sold after the new consoles came.

One more thing, black Friday sales will be only current gen consoles, not the new ones which most likely will be out of stock. A cheap bundle with Last of us 2 will sell a lot, specially to PC people who do not want to buy a 450dollars console + 70 dollars game = 520 dollars while they could buy it for 180 dollars just for that game.

I'm willing to bet you a year of avatar control that the PS4 will never reach 150 million units sold. The PS4 is on a downward curve and it's not going to have the kind of post successor sales that the PS2 had.



Signature goes here!

I'd already be happy with 120 millions for PS4. I think Switch will pass Wii but will fall short of PS4 by at least 10 millions.



Nu-13 said:
ArchangelMadzz said:

The Wii Never hit 25m and you think the Switch will do it in consecutive years?

Why is it that this kind of post always asks this? Sales don't have to and won't be the same for two consecutive years. I expect 26m this year and 22m next year. The wii never selling 25m in one year has absolutely nothing to do with this topic.

I meant average it, still to expect such a massive spike in it's 4th year is pretty optimistic.

Switch Sold 19.5m units last year. That would be an increase of 33% between the 3rd and 4th year. a Comparison of growth between 3rd to 4th year below:

PS4: +12.5%
Wii: -20%
PS3: +7%
360: -7.5%
DS: +0.5%
XB1:-9.5%
WiiU:-300%
Vita:-6%

Out of all these Handheld and Home consoles (that we have the data of), only the PS4 managed double digit growth from 3rd year to 4th year. It seems extrodinarily unlikely that the Switch's growth will be 3x that amount.

Not saying it's impossible, but very optimistic at the least. 

(I agree this year will be NS's peak year but I think 23m is optimistic enough) 



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ArchangelMadzz said:
Nu-13 said:

Why is it that this kind of post always asks this? Sales don't have to and won't be the same for two consecutive years. I expect 26m this year and 22m next year. The wii never selling 25m in one year has absolutely nothing to do with this topic.

I meant average it, still to expect such a massive spike in it's 4th year is pretty optimistic.

Switch Sold 19.5m units last year. That would be an increase of 33% between the 3rd and 4th year. a Comparison of growth between 3rd to 4th year below:

PS4: +12.5%
Wii: -20%
PS3: +7%
360: -7.5%
DS: +0.5%
XB1:-9.5%
WiiU:-300%
Vita:-6%

Out of all these Handheld and Home consoles (that we have the data of), only the PS4 managed double digit growth from 3rd year to 4th year. It seems extrodinarily unlikely that the Switch's growth will be 3x that amount.

Not saying it's impossible, but very optimistic at the least. 

(I agree this year will be NS's peak year but I think 23m is optimistic enough) 

I agree here. Switch sales in 2020 will be +/- 10% of 2019 sales. Unless there is a price drop, which is unlikely knowing Nintendo. 



VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo

I stream on Twitch and have my own Youtube

Writer of the Gap Charts | Weekly Hardware Breakdown Top 10 | Weekly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features

I also post daily news on the Video Game Industry.

If you want to contact me, send me a PM on here or tweet me @TrunksWD

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trunkswd said:
ArchangelMadzz said:

I meant average it, still to expect such a massive spike in it's 4th year is pretty optimistic.

Switch Sold 19.5m units last year. That would be an increase of 33% between the 3rd and 4th year. a Comparison of growth between 3rd to 4th year below:

PS4: +12.5%
Wii: -20%
PS3: +7%
360: -7.5%
DS: +0.5%
XB1:-9.5%
WiiU:-300%
Vita:-6%

Out of all these Handheld and Home consoles (that we have the data of), only the PS4 managed double digit growth from 3rd year to 4th year. It seems extrodinarily unlikely that the Switch's growth will be 3x that amount.

Not saying it's impossible, but very optimistic at the least. 

(I agree this year will be NS's peak year but I think 23m is optimistic enough) 

I agree here. Switch sales in 2020 will be +/- 10% of 2019 sales. Unless there is a price drop, which is unlikely knowing Nintendo

While I'm not expecting a pricedrop, I do expect them including a pack-in game to become standard in Fall, which would be similar to a $50 pricecut for anyone who also wants that game - though for which game this will be, I don't know yet.



Bofferbrauer2 said:
trunkswd said:

I agree here. Switch sales in 2020 will be +/- 10% of 2019 sales. Unless there is a price drop, which is unlikely knowing Nintendo

While I'm not expecting a pricedrop, I do expect them including a pack-in game to become standard in Fall, which would be similar to a $50 pricecut for anyone who also wants that game - though for which game this will be, I don't know yet.

They've done Mario Kart 8 Deluxe pack-in 2 years in a row if I remember correctly? Maybe they would add a second pack-in game this year. 



VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo

I stream on Twitch and have my own Youtube

Writer of the Gap Charts | Weekly Hardware Breakdown Top 10 | Weekly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features

I also post daily news on the Video Game Industry.

If you want to contact me, send me a PM on here or tweet me @TrunksWD

trunkswd said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

While I'm not expecting a pricedrop, I do expect them including a pack-in game to become standard in Fall, which would be similar to a $50 pricecut for anyone who also wants that game - though for which game this will be, I don't know yet.

They've done Mario Kart 8 Deluxe pack-in 2 years in a row if I remember correctly? Maybe they would add a second pack-in game this year. 

But that was just a promotion. I'm expecting the pack-in model to become a new base model.



Bofferbrauer2 said:
trunkswd said:

They've done Mario Kart 8 Deluxe pack-in 2 years in a row if I remember correctly? Maybe they would add a second pack-in game this year. 

But that was just a promotion. I'm expecting the pack-in model to become a new base model.

Yeah that would help if it became permanent. Then during the holiday add Mario Party or another game. 



VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo

I stream on Twitch and have my own Youtube

Writer of the Gap Charts | Weekly Hardware Breakdown Top 10 | Weekly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features

I also post daily news on the Video Game Industry.

If you want to contact me, send me a PM on here or tweet me @TrunksWD

Guys, Nintendo hasn't even started a proper generation for Mario Kart, Smash, NSMB. All these big hitters are deluxe editions of the WiiU titles. Now imagine Nintendo launches Mario Kart 9, a new NSMB, Breath of the Wild 2, ,Mario Galaxy 3, Metroid Prime 4. We basically have another console lifespan, for a total of two gens within a given platform (Switch).

I think we will be shocked by Switch sales by the time it has run its course in 2027.