Forums - Sales Discussion - When will the switch outsell the ps4?

When will the switch outsell the ps4?

Second half of 2022 9 4.50%
 
First half of 2023 5 2.50%
 
Second half of 2023 18 9.00%
 
First half of 2024 10 5.00%
 
Second half of 2024 15 7.50%
 
First half of 2025 7 3.50%
 
Second half of 2025 5 2.50%
 
Later than above 1 0.50%
 
Never 130 65.00%
 
Total:200
Bofferbrauer2 said:
RolStoppable said:

A $99 PS4 sounds very profitable for Sony.

I know you were sarcastic, but I feel the need to explain to yo33331 what you meant by that in detail.

Not even the PS2 was priced that low ($129 was it's lowest outside of promotions), and the PS3 even bottomed out at $199, and that's all without taking inflation into account. I do expect Sony to drop the price one last time during summer to $249 and that's it, from there the PS5 will take over.

Also, expecting Sony to drop the price so hard when they want to sell it's successor would be foolish at best. It would steal tons of sales from the PS5 at the time the console needs the sales the most to build momentum. That's the last thing Sony would want to happen, as that would steal all momentum to the console. Without momentum early on, sales go the way of the Wii U: Nintendo brought tons of truly great games to the system, but without any momentum, they couldn't build on those great games and sales stayed low.

Inflation is part of it, but it's also important to remember that the PS2 required a separate memory card purchase, so the real cost for a functioning PS2 was higher than the price of the console itself. While the PS3 did have a garbage SKU without an HDD to lower costs, the PS4 cannot go the same path because its games have mandatory installs and therefore an HDD will always remain a must. That's why $199 is the lowest that the PS4 can ever go and even that might just be in theory in the end, because Sony could forego to do it.

A low priced PS4 won't steal sales from the PS5 because you are looking at very different customers. Conversely, it would be possible that a $399 PS5 steals sales from a $299 PS4 if Sony chose such a pricing strategy; at that point a backwards compatible PS5 costs only $100 more and plays all PS4 and PS5 games, so a prospective late adopter of the PS4 could very well rethink what they want to invest in.

I have to assume that your Wii U comment is your attempt to compete with Nu and yo for the most ridiculous statement in this thread. The Wii U stumbled from one software drought into the next, that's why there was never any momentum. On the other hand, third parties will make PS5 games based on blind trust and then, even in the face of low PS5 sales, would continue to make PS5 games because of the costs that they've already sunk into PS5 development. A Wii U situation is simply not going to occur for the PS5, even in the worst case scenario.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

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Voted Never.

I think the Switch will reach its market saturation point and slow down rapidly like the every other Nintendo device,except the DS has done.

If I had to make a preditction right now, I would say the Switch will end up somewhere between the 3DS and Wii when it is all said and done. I don't think it will be able to reach the 100M mark.

I believe that 2020 will be the last massive year for Switch, with another decent year in 2021, but after that, the market will be very competitive. With 5G rolling out, and the maturation of PS Now, Stadia, xCloud, and other online streaming services, the ability to access your AAA games library anywhere will be quite common. It will be time for Nintendo to innovate a new exciting concept.



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Ka-pi96 said:
S.Peelman said:

Everybody just guesses something. That more people guess the same thing doesn't mean that that particular thing is actually going to happen. This far in advance both outcomes have as much of a chance of happening. If you or anyone end up right with their answer, they were just lucky.

Nah, it's not 50/50. One outcome is definitely more likely than the other. And it's certainly not just luck, there's a huge number of variables in play and the more of those that you take into account (and actually know) the more likely you are to be correct. If you just pick randomly and ignore everything then yeah, it's just pure luck. But if you actually think about things then you should be correct more often than you're wrong.

Eh, maybe. I don’t think either is some extreme.



LGBTDBZBBQ said:
nier1993 said:

Ps4 was 199$ for like 2 days during the holidays before being sold out. Switch is 199$ since September.

At Amazon only because of limited stock allocation. In last few years PS4 bf bundled in the US it was sold at $199+Spiderman and $199+TLOU+HZD+GOW.

In Europe and Japan it last for a couple of weeks with $199 and 2 free games. I. In a few asean countries you could get PS4 + 3 free games like GOW+GTA5+HZD+3 months of PS+ at $245 price points for a whole month.

PS4 at $199 sold out in around 3-4 days at all retailers. 

For 2019 you had plenty of sites like eBay selling switch lite for $170 and hybrid switch for $250-275 a couple of weeks. So it’s not only the PS4 that had deals, all consoles Do. 



KBG29 said:
Voted Never.

I think the Switch will reach its market saturation point and slow down rapidly like the every other Nintendo device,except the DS has done.

If I had to make a preditction right now, I would say the Switch will end up somewhere between the 3DS and Wii when it is all said and done. I don't think it will be able to reach the 100M mark.

I believe that 2020 will be the last massive year for Switch, with another decent year in 2021, but after that, the market will be very competitive. With 5G rolling out, and the maturation of PS Now, Stadia, xCloud, and other online streaming services, the ability to access your AAA games library anywhere will be quite common. It will be time for Nintendo to innovate a new exciting concept.

I liked your post because it gave me a good laugh.



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If Nintendo keeps supporting the switch and having at the same time a switch pro (like ps4 pro) it can easily pass the ps4 around 2023-2024 :)



kazuyamishima said:
LGBTDBZBBQ said:

At Amazon only because of limited stock allocation. In last few years PS4 bf bundled in the US it was sold at $199+Spiderman and $199+TLOU+HZD+GOW.

In Europe and Japan it last for a couple of weeks with $199 and 2 free games. I. In a few asean countries you could get PS4 + 3 free games like GOW+GTA5+HZD+3 months of PS+ at $245 price points for a whole month.

PS4 at $199 sold out in around 3-4 days at all retailers. 

For 2019 you had plenty of sites like eBay selling switch lite for $170 and hybrid switch for $250-275 a couple of weeks. So it’s not only the PS4 that had deals, all consoles Do. 

PS4 at $140 to be exact since Spiderman was at $60 msrp, even lower when Japan included any 2 free recently released games like Spiderman.

The difference between Nintendo and Sony from your list, Sony was nation wide promotion around the globe while Switch wasn't. 



Im not sure the Switch can sell 120m units based on its current tarjectory.

Particularly, is there an audience of 100-120m people who want to mainly play Nintendo's games? Their only consoles to go over 100m relied heavily on appealing outside of their core userbase (wii/DS) or being the only big player in the handheld market (Gameboy).

I'm inclined to think the Switch will end around or below the PS4 with a steep decline in later life.



It won't



Otter said:
Im not sure the Switch can sell 120m units based on its current tarjectory.

Particularly, is there an audience of 100-120m people who want to mainly play Nintendo's games? Their only consoles to go over 100m relied heavily on appealing outside of their core userbase (wii/DS) or being the only big player in the handheld market (Gameboy).

I'm inclined to think the Switch will end around or below the PS4 with a steep decline in later life.

Sure, one of the main issues with Nintendo has been that their audience is split between their handheld and home console ecosystems. On top of that Nintendo software teams have had to split resources between 2-4 different platforms.

For example, in 1999/2000 Nintendo was working on late GBC & N64 games while also working on early GBA & GC games. In the 2004-2006 period they would have been working on late GBA & GC games while also working on early DS & Wii games then around 2009-2012 they had to work on late DS & Wii games while also working on early 3DS & Wii U games.

That means each generation only gets a few years of Nintendo's full attention and even in those years support would be split between handheld and home consoles. This progressively has gotten worse as development costs and times increase.

Switch is the first time since the mid 80s that Nintendo gets to give 100% of their support to a single platform which means their audience will all be in one place and sales will not plummet or stagnate like many previous devices have.

I'm not saying it will pass PS4 but 100-120 million is not out of the question at all.



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