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Forums - Sales Discussion - When will the switch outsell the ps4?

 

When will the switch outsell the ps4?

Second half of 2022 24 9.02%
 
First half of 2023 21 7.89%
 
Second half of 2023 32 12.03%
 
First half of 2024 15 5.64%
 
Second half of 2024 16 6.02%
 
First half of 2025 7 2.63%
 
Second half of 2025 5 1.88%
 
Later than above 2 0.75%
 
Never 144 54.14%
 
Total:266
yo33331 said:

We will see in the end. No one would think that 99$ PS2 would be profitable for sony too. But they did it. If it happened one time, why not second time ? (even PS1 was dropped to 49$ in the end). PS3 didn't stand a chance for this cuz it had blu rey (which was expensier at the time than now and had expensive cell processor too). In 2023 99$ PS4 ( 10 year hardware by then ) would be profitable or at least not loosing money on it. But because of this more games will be bought and sony knows this, and they are making most of the profits by selling more games for the console, not so much by the hardware itself.

Technically, PS4 was sold like $140 in the last 2 years with games bundle that worth at $60 during BF. 

In 2018 PS4 slim + recently released Spiderman at $199 and in 2019 PS4 slim + 3 games that worth at $60 for WW. 

While Nintendo best offer in the US was old X1 SKU+MK8D and in EUROPE new Mariko SKU+MK8D at $299. 

Last edited by LGBTDBZBBQ - on 13 January 2020

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S.Peelman said:
Ljink96 said:

Well, sure. However, in this case because of my thoughts and the results of the poll I believe the users who responded made the right decision. 

Everybody just guesses something. That more people guess the same thing doesn't mean that that particular thing is actually going to happen. This far in advance both outcomes have as much of a chance of happening. If you or anyone end up right with their answer, they were just lucky.

Nah, it's not 50/50. One outcome is definitely more likely than the other. And it's certainly not just luck, there's a huge number of variables in play and the more of those that you take into account (and actually know) the more likely you are to be correct. If you just pick randomly and ignore everything then yeah, it's just pure luck. But if you actually think about things then you should be correct more often than you're wrong.



PS4 is still a moving target.  I am guessing it will sell around 130m, but I could see it going over that.  Switch will pass PS4 holiday 2023 if PS4 sells under 130m.  Switch will pass PS4 in 2024 if PS4 goes over 130m.



The_Liquid_Laser said:

PS4 is still a moving target.  I am guessing it will sell around 130m, but I could see it going over that.  Switch will pass PS4 holiday 2023 if PS4 sells under 130m.  Switch will pass PS4 in 2024 if PS4 goes over 130m.

So 80m over the next 4 years? Out of interest how exactly do you expect those 80m sales to be distributed over 2020,2021,2022 and 2023.



Depends how quickly the PS4 dies off after the PS5 launch. If it continues to sell as the PS2 did, I don't think Switch will catch it. If it doesn't, then sometime in 2023.



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RingoGaSuki said:
Depends how quickly the PS4 dies off after the PS5 launch. If it continues to sell as the PS2 did, I don't think Switch will catch it. If it doesn't, then sometime in 2023.

It wont have nearly as strong post-successor legs as PS2. A few reasons being

1. emerging markets now get the consoles at or near the same time as the main markets.

2. PS3 released 5 years after PS2 while PS5 is releasing 7 years after PS4.

3. PS4 will never get close to the price that PS2 got to.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

yo33331 said:

PS4 is doing 140M lifetime like it or not. And Switch will have very very difficult time reaching it. It will probably do another 20M this year and the next at best. After this, decline, and it will maybe finish at 110-120M at best. And yes, the buyers who would buy switch for 199$ are buying it now. So no price cut to 199$ on the normal switch won't push the sales any further. The lite at 149$ after year or two can, but I already put it in the accounting with the numbers that I wrote.

Me personally I think PS5 and XB1 will affect switch sales little or more. Switch is console with PS3/360 power, and with PS5 it will be 2 generations behind. Pretty much everyone different from casual gamer would think twice about getting console with hardware that was high end in 2005.. This also means that 3rd party support may be smaller compare to now. Because one thing is PS4 port to PS3 hardware, and way other thing is PS5 game to PS3 hardware. There will be 3rd party games just like not that much as they were until now.

140M?

How? Sales are already breaking away fast, and even a pricecut or two or three won't reverse the sales trend anymore.

RolStoppable said:
yo33331 said:

I think Sony will do 2 major price cuts on it until the end of it's life. That's why I bet on at least 140M. First to 199$ possibly this year and then to 99$ in 2022 or 2023. 12-14M this year with the price cut, 2021 - 10M, 2022 - 6 to 8M (depends if this is the 99$ cut year) and 2023 and 2024 some 4-5M combined

A $99 PS4 sounds very profitable for Sony.

I know you were sarcastic, but I feel the need to explain to yo33331 what you meant by that in detail.

Not even the PS2 was priced that low ($129 was it's lowest outside of promotions), and the PS3 even bottomed out at $199, and that's all without taking inflation into account. I do expect Sony to drop the price one last time during summer to $249 and that's it, from there the PS5 will take over.

Also, expecting Sony to drop the price so hard when they want to sell it's successor would be foolish at best. It would steal tons of sales from the PS5 at the time the console needs the sales the most to build momentum. That's the last thing Sony would want to happen, as that would steal all momentum to the console. Without momentum early on, sales go the way of the Wii U: Nintendo brought tons of truly great games to the system, but without any momentum, they couldn't build on those great games and sales stayed low.

yo33331 said:
Dulfite said:

Wait, you think a price cut won't push Switch but a price cut will push PS4? 

It will, however the push of 199$ has already been done with the lite. It can do a push with 99$. And even then I've already put it in the numbers I gave.

The lite is a Switch with very strong limitations. There's a reason why the non-lite model outsells the lite 2-1 despite the latter being $100 cheaper. The lite is really only for those who need a purebreed handheld and can't use the TV connectivity, the joycons and it's built-in functions, and can live with worse battery life. Many who like the Switch are not even considering buying a lite due to all those restrictions.

Mark my words, the real push to $199 has not happened yet. And probably is still a ways off to be honest. Nintendo will probably first come with a pack-in title and/or another small revision (I'm expecting a version with larger internal storage instead of a pricecut, for instance) before reducing permanently the price of the base model. And even just a drop to $249 for the base model would give the Switch a vast push in sales, let alone a drop to $199.



Barkley said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:

PS4 is still a moving target.  I am guessing it will sell around 130m, but I could see it going over that.  Switch will pass PS4 holiday 2023 if PS4 sells under 130m.  Switch will pass PS4 in 2024 if PS4 goes over 130m.

So 80m over the next 4 years? Out of interest how exactly do you expect those 80m sales to be distributed over 2020,2021,2022 and 2023.

Something like this: 23m, 22m, 19m, 16m.



Bofferbrauer2 said:
RolStoppable said:

A $99 PS4 sounds very profitable for Sony.

I know you were sarcastic, but I feel the need to explain to yo33331 what you meant by that in detail.

Not even the PS2 was priced that low ($129 was it's lowest outside of promotions), and the PS3 even bottomed out at $199, and that's all without taking inflation into account. I do expect Sony to drop the price one last time during summer to $249 and that's it, from there the PS5 will take over.

Also, expecting Sony to drop the price so hard when they want to sell it's successor would be foolish at best. It would steal tons of sales from the PS5 at the time the console needs the sales the most to build momentum. That's the last thing Sony would want to happen, as that would steal all momentum to the console. Without momentum early on, sales go the way of the Wii U: Nintendo brought tons of truly great games to the system, but without any momentum, they couldn't build on those great games and sales stayed low.

Inflation is part of it, but it's also important to remember that the PS2 required a separate memory card purchase, so the real cost for a functioning PS2 was higher than the price of the console itself. While the PS3 did have a garbage SKU without an HDD to lower costs, the PS4 cannot go the same path because its games have mandatory installs and therefore an HDD will always remain a must. That's why $199 is the lowest that the PS4 can ever go and even that might just be in theory in the end, because Sony could forego to do it.

A low priced PS4 won't steal sales from the PS5 because you are looking at very different customers. Conversely, it would be possible that a $399 PS5 steals sales from a $299 PS4 if Sony chose such a pricing strategy; at that point a backwards compatible PS5 costs only $100 more and plays all PS4 and PS5 games, so a prospective late adopter of the PS4 could very well rethink what they want to invest in.

I have to assume that your Wii U comment is your attempt to compete with Nu and yo for the most ridiculous statement in this thread. The Wii U stumbled from one software drought into the next, that's why there was never any momentum. On the other hand, third parties will make PS5 games based on blind trust and then, even in the face of low PS5 sales, would continue to make PS5 games because of the costs that they've already sunk into PS5 development. A Wii U situation is simply not going to occur for the PS5, even in the worst case scenario.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Gamers Club

Voted Never.

I think the Switch will reach its market saturation point and slow down rapidly like the every other Nintendo device,except the DS has done.

If I had to make a preditction right now, I would say the Switch will end up somewhere between the 3DS and Wii when it is all said and done. I don't think it will be able to reach the 100M mark.

I believe that 2020 will be the last massive year for Switch, with another decent year in 2021, but after that, the market will be very competitive. With 5G rolling out, and the maturation of PS Now, Stadia, xCloud, and other online streaming services, the ability to access your AAA games library anywhere will be quite common. It will be time for Nintendo to innovate a new exciting concept.



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