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When will the switch outsell the ps4?

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When will the switch outsell the ps4?

Second half of 2022 7 4.17%
 
First half of 2023 4 2.38%
 
Second half of 2023 15 8.93%
 
First half of 2024 8 4.76%
 
Second half of 2024 14 8.33%
 
First half of 2025 6 3.57%
 
Second half of 2025 4 2.38%
 
Later than above 1 0.60%
 
Never 109 64.88%
 
Total:168

I was gonna wait a little to make this one but don't wanna risk someone else doing it first. As the tittle sugests, predict when (if ever) you think the switch will outsell the ps4. Looking at vgc numbers, the switch is currently over 50m sold and ps4 over 106m. The systems were released over 3 years apart and if we compare sales aligned from launch, the switch is ahead and on track to remain that way even after the ps4's holidays 2016 numbers.

My bet is on second half of 2023. edit: Maybe first half 2024. Not betting in any date sooner or later than those.

Last edited by Nu-13 - on 27 January 2020

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It won't.
It's selling very well, but I don't think it'll have the legs to push that far away.
Outselling the PS4 is no easy feat, by the end of its life only the PS2 and NDS will be ahead of it, so it's not like not outselling it is a problem, tho.



Agreed. I don't think it will have the legs either. I don't see it selling another 70ish million in 4 years.

The real question is... Will it be the highest gen 9 console? I think it will.



ironmanDX said:
Agreed. I don't think it will have the legs either. I don't see it selling another 70ish million in 4 years.

The real question is... Will it be the highest gen 9 console? I think it will.

That's easy since it will be the only 9th gen console. But you're free to compare it's sales with the 10th gen systems.



I think Switch 2 comes out in 2021-2022.
Switch will probably stop somewhere around ~100m units.

PS4 is likely going over 130m, imo.



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2024

Nintendo Switch is still selling at full price, even with the introduction of a cheaper SKU the original SKU is by far the most demanded out of the two.

I think in 2021-2024 Nintendo needed to be more aggressive with the promotion by releasing the same level of bundled like SAD Edition of XBO and Only On PlayStation of PS4.



Nu-13 said:
ironmanDX said:
Agreed. I don't think it will have the legs either. I don't see it selling another 70ish million in 4 years.

The real question is... Will it be the highest gen 9 console? I think it will.

That's easy since it will be the only 9th gen console. But you're free to compare it's sales with the 10th gen systems.

Could you just remind me what are gen 8-9 and 10 for you guys ?



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LET'S FACE THIS FACT : The Switch is the last physical video game system of the history who has a chance to beat PS2's sales.

Amnesia said:
Nu-13 said:

That's easy since it will be the only 9th gen console. But you're free to compare it's sales with the 10th gen systems.

Could you just remind me what are gen 8-9 and 10 for you guys ?

8th gen: 3ds, vita, wii u, ps4, x1

9th gen: switch

10th gen: ps5, xsx, switch 2



Switch already can be bought at 200$ it might get to 100 million.



Late 2023



Nothing to see here, move along