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Forums - Sales Discussion - VGChartz Gap Charts December 2019 Discussion Thread

The Switch more than doubled its lead in the past 12 months. On top of that 3DS sales are going to hold up too well in the coming months while Switch sales are still accelerating.



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10 million lead over 3DS, awesome.
By this point 3DS had sold more than half its lifetime sales too, while Switch should be less frontloaded as it's only had one revision so far and the standard model is still $300.



RolStoppable said:
curl-6 said:
10 million lead over 3DS, awesome.
By this point 3DS had sold more than half its lifetime sales too, while Switch should be less frontloaded as it's only had one revision so far and the standard model is still $300.

In 2014 the 3DS sold 9.74m, so in 2020 Switch can tack on another 10m units to its cumulative lead.

In 2015 the 3DS sold 7.33m, so in 2021 Switch can tack on another 10m units to its cumulative lead because, like you said, Switch still has plenty of price cut and revision options left in order to stabilize its sales in the future. Selling 18m units in 2021 isn't really that much of a challenge.

In 2016 the 3DS sold 7.59m. Switch enters 2022 with a cumulative lead of 30m which is what curl-6 predicts to be the lead in lifetime sales in the end. So for 2022 Switch sales, curl-6 is predicting that Switch will fall off a cliff and then proceed to sell like the 3DS did late in its life. Note that curl-6 doesn't think that that qualifies as having a pessimistic outlook.

3DS in 2017: 6.63m.
3DS in 2018: 3.50m.

I guess I was scarred by the Wii's twilight years but I am still wary of whether Nintendo will put the effort into pushing the Switch beyond next year or turn stupid again and move on prematurely.



trunkswd said:

You can read the complete article and analysis here:

Switch vs PS4 – VGChartz Gap Charts – December 2019

Switch Vs. PS4 Global:

Gap change in latest month: 4,310,904 – Switch

Gap change over last 12 months: 2,765,954 – Switch

Total Lead: 6,950,987 - Switch

Switch Total Sales: 49,808,000

PS4 Total Sales: 42,857,013

Now this is a hell of a fight, truly a duel for the ages.

I can't recall two simultaneous systems ever being so big and so closely matched before, each pulling ahead of the other back and forth.



trunkswd said:
curl-6 said:

Now this is a hell of a fight, truly a duel for the ages.

I can't recall two simultaneous systems ever being so big and so closely matched before, each pulling ahead of the other back and forth.

The only reason they go back and forth so much is both launched at different times of the year. The PS3 and Xbox 360 battle was really close. The 360 launched a year earlier, so had a head start. However, in the end the PS3 just beat out the 360. 

PS3 and 360 weren't as big as PS4/Switch though. Those two ended around 85-87 million; PS4's already at 106 million and Switch should also pass 100 million.



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trunkswd said:
curl-6 said:

PS3 and 360 weren't as big as PS4/Switch though. Those two ended around 85-87 million; PS4's already at 106 million and Switch should also pass 100 million.

Quite true. I was just mentioning another close race. 

Yeah, Xbox vs Gamecube was close too. Just nothing of this scale before.



trunkswd said:
curl-6 said:

Yeah, Xbox vs Gamecube was close too. Just nothing of this scale before.

I remember the battle between the Xbox and GameCube. They were fighting over the scraps with how much ahead the PS2 was. 

PS3 and 360 were also fighting for second place. Switch vs PS4 though is just a titanic battle between two dominating supergiants.



Just for fun, here's what the gap charts look like when you align PS4's April 2014 to Switch's April 2017:



curl-6 said:
trunkswd said:

You can read the complete article and analysis here:

Switch vs PS4 – VGChartz Gap Charts – December 2019

Switch Vs. PS4 Global:

Gap change in latest month: 4,310,904 – Switch

Gap change over last 12 months: 2,765,954 – Switch

Total Lead: 6,950,987 - Switch

Switch Total Sales: 49,808,000

PS4 Total Sales: 42,857,013

Now this is a hell of a fight, truly a duel for the ages.

I can't recall two simultaneous systems ever being so big and so closely matched before, each pulling ahead of the other back and forth.

It only looks close, because 2018 was kind of a "meh" year for the Switch, so that makes the PS4 look competitive.  Switch is about to pull ahead of PS4 for good.



The_Liquid_Laser said:
curl-6 said:

Now this is a hell of a fight, truly a duel for the ages.

I can't recall two simultaneous systems ever being so big and so closely matched before, each pulling ahead of the other back and forth.

It only looks close, because 2018 was kind of a "meh" year for the Switch, so that makes the PS4 look competitive.  Switch is about to pull ahead of PS4 for good.

That's a bold claim; I don't doubt Switch will sell well this year and 2021, but I'm skeptical whether Nintendo will push it hard enough beyond that for it to match PS4's legs in the long run.