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PS4/XBO/NS - 2019 vs 2020; Week 6 Numbers Posted!

Forums - Sales Discussion - PS4/XBO/NS - 2019 vs 2020; Week 6 Numbers Posted!

Will 2020 be the Peak Year for the Nintendo Switch?

Yes 56 87.50%
 
No 8 12.50%
 
Total:64
PAOerfulone said:

PS4 and XB1 - That looks about right.

NSW - No way in hell. It has a very good chance to be up YoY, but not THAT much.

Amazing how after everything, you just say "it has a very good chance of being up yoy". There isn't a single sales trend pointing to switch being down yoy.



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Supermario28 said:
RolStoppable said:

That's not how the gap between sell-through and shipments works. If we estimate 1.5m Switch consoles on shelves now, then that's a pretty similar amount to how many Switch consoles were on shelves when entering the current fiscal year, therefore there is nothing to add onto the sell-through numbers for the current fiscal year. ~17.5m in sell-through also means ~17.5m in shipments.

 I'm not sure I understand this logic. But maybe I'm missing something.

Switch that were on shelves on the 1st of april 2019 should have been counted as shipped during the Q4 FY2018 isn't it?

On the other hand, switch that are on shelves right now were shipped during FY2019 so they should count for this FY.

Rol is saying that if units on shelves/transit are the same as one year ago, then shipped numbers since then are also sold through numbers.

Simple example: A system has 15m shipped and 14m sold through at x date. One year later it has 25m shipped and 24m sold through. The 1m gap between shipped and sold remained the same, so it both shipped and sold 10m units during that year.

Last edited by Nu-13 - on 23 January 2020

Nu-13 said:
Supermario28 said:

 I'm not sure I understand this logic. But maybe I'm missing something.

Switch that were on shelves on the 1st of april 2019 should have been counted as shipped during the Q4 FY2018 isn't it?

On the other hand, switch that are on shelves right now were shipped during FY2019 so they should count for this FY.

Rol is saying that if units on shelves/transit are the same as one year ago, then shipped numbers since then are also sold through numbers.

Simple example: A system has 15m shipped and 14m sold thorugh at x date. One year later it has 25m shipped and 24m sold though. The 1m gap between shipped and sold remained the same, so it both shipped and sold 10m units during that year.

Oh ok now it's clear!

Thanks!



PAOerfulone said:

PS4 and XB1 - That looks about right.

NSW - No way in hell. It has a very good chance to be up YoY, but not THAT much.

I think all 3 systems are tracking a bit high at this point.  If we wait a couple more weeks then we'll probably get a better idea of their annual sales.



pikashoe said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

I expect all 3 to be a good chunk over the final numbers.

I expect all 3 to be a good chunk under the final numbers.

So you expect each of them to sell more than that? I find them all to be tracking way too high so far.



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Bofferbrauer2 said:
pikashoe said:

I expect all 3 to be a good chunk under the final numbers.

So you expect each of them to sell more than that? I find them all to be tracking way too high so far.

He probably means the same thing as you, but the wording of your post was a bit confusing, so he probably thought that you meant that Switch will sell notably more than 26m etc.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Gamers Club

RolStoppable said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

So you expect each of them to sell more than that? I find them all to be tracking way too high so far.

He probably means the same thing as you, but the wording of your post was a bit confusing, so he probably thought that you meant that Switch will sell notably more than 26m etc.

Yeah, I realized that too, hence why I asked, just to make sure we're on the same page here.



Nu-13 said:
PAOerfulone said:

PS4 and XB1 - That looks about right.

NSW - No way in hell. It has a very good chance to be up YoY, but not THAT much.

Amazing how after everything, you just say "it has a very good chance of being up yoy". There isn't a single sales trend pointing to switch being down yoy.

Obviously, the Switch is trending noticeably upwards, and that was going to be the case for the 1st half of the year. But the big question mark is the 2nd half. From July to December 2019, we got the following:

July: Fire Emblem: Three Houses
August: Astral Chain
September: Switch Lite + Link's Awakening + Dragon Quest XI S
October: Luigi's Mansion 3
November: Pokemon Sword/Shield
December: Usual Holiday Boost.

That's a damn strong lineup and combination that led to the Switch having the great 2nd half and monstrous holiday season that it had. So, what does Nintendo have up their sleeve this year to match that? We still don't know any major games they have planned this year beyond Animal Crossing. I'm sure there's at least 1-2 more, but will they have the same effect as Sword/Shield + Fire Emblem + 2D Zelda AND a new hardware revision? If the answer is no, then the lead the Switch builds in the 1st half of 2020 may not be strong enough to withstand the deficit it could accumulate in the 2nd half due to a weaker lineup. 



Pancho A. Ovies

Nintendo Switch in Japan (Famitsu): 2018 vs. 2019
http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=238945&page=2

PlayStation 4/Xbox One/Nintendo Switch: 2018 vs. 2019
http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=239387

PAOerfulone said:
Nu-13 said:

Amazing how after everything, you just say "it has a very good chance of being up yoy". There isn't a single sales trend pointing to switch being down yoy.

Obviously, the Switch is trending noticeably upwards, and that was going to be the case for the 1st half of the year. But the big question mark is the 2nd half. From July to December 2019, we got the following:

July: Fire Emblem: Three Houses
August: Astral Chain
September: Switch Lite + Link's Awakening + Dragon Quest XI S
October: Luigi's Mansion 3
November: Pokemon Sword/Shield
December: Usual Holiday Boost.

That's a damn strong lineup and combination that led to the Switch having the great 2nd half and monstrous holiday season that it had. So, what does Nintendo have up their sleeve this year to match that? We still don't know any major games they have planned this year beyond Animal Crossing. I'm sure there's at least 1-2 more, but will they have the same effect as Sword/Shield + Fire Emblem + 2D Zelda AND a new hardware revision? If the answer is no, then the lead the Switch builds in the 1st half of 2020 may not be strong enough to withstand the deficit it could accumulate in the 2nd half due to a weaker lineup. 

Just to add on this, the early weeks don't have to mean very much. Case in point: Wii 2010.

The Wii sold January through April as if the console would do yet another 20M+ year. Then, the sales started to break away, and by October, it was only doing 150k weekly anymore, half of what it pulled just half a year earlier. It still did well with 17M that year, but the writing was also already on the wall that the console was declining, and fast.

Of course, there's no reason for the Switch to drop like that this year. Just saying that you can't make a trend for the entire year just based on the first couple weeks.

Last edited by Bofferbrauer2 - on 24 January 2020

It's that classic saying:

It's not how you start, it's how you finish.



Pancho A. Ovies

Nintendo Switch in Japan (Famitsu): 2018 vs. 2019
http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=238945&page=2

PlayStation 4/Xbox One/Nintendo Switch: 2018 vs. 2019
http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=239387