Forums - Sales Discussion - PS4/XBO/NS - 2019 vs 2020; Week 13 Numbers Posted

Will 2020 be the Peak Year for the Nintendo Switch?

Yes 58 87.88%
 
No 8 12.12%
 
Total:66

No Switch Japan 2019 vs 2020 thread this year?



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Not this year. Rol takes care of that on the Famitsu threads.



Pancho A. Ovies

Nintendo Switch in Japan (Famitsu): 2018 vs. 2019
http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=238945&page=2

PlayStation 4/Xbox One/Nintendo Switch: 2018 vs. 2019
http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=239387

Now that I'm home and have access to my laptop, the Week 3 Numbers have finally been posted.
The Switch remains above 300k, but we'll see if that remains the case next week. It is should still be comfortably ahead YoY. I expect it to build a considerable lead before Animal Crossing: New Horizons launches at the end of March.
The PS4 drops down to 156k, which is the lowest it has been in a loooong while. The Xbox One does a dismal 46k.



Pancho A. Ovies

Nintendo Switch in Japan (Famitsu): 2018 vs. 2019
http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=238945&page=2

PlayStation 4/Xbox One/Nintendo Switch: 2018 vs. 2019
http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=239387

I know we are only on week 3, but if the systems keep selling at this rate then this is what sales look like for the year:

PS4 - 10.6m (~25% drop)
XB1 - 3.8m (~21% drop)
NSW - 26.7m (~32% increase)



PS4 and XB1 - That looks about right.

NSW - No way in hell. It has a very good chance to be up YoY, but not THAT much.



Pancho A. Ovies

Nintendo Switch in Japan (Famitsu): 2018 vs. 2019
http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=238945&page=2

PlayStation 4/Xbox One/Nintendo Switch: 2018 vs. 2019
http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=239387

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PAOerfulone said:

PS4 and XB1 - That looks about right.

NSW - No way in hell. It has a very good chance to be up YoY, but not THAT much.

I expect all 3 of those numbers to be a good chunk over what the final numbers are going to be in the end.

Last edited by Bofferbrauer2 - on 23 January 2020

Switch 2020 growth:

Japan: +117'080 (up 30.8%)

WW: +303'956 (up 32.2%)

Outside of japan: +186'876 (up 33.2%)

I thought Japan had the biggest growth but it looks like the rest of the world sees an even bigger increase in these last 3 weeks!


Switch FY19 goal: 18m shipped

Switch from first week of April 2019 (W14) to last week of 2019 (W52) sold 16'824'318 units

The first 3 weeks of 2020: 628'593

Switch FY19 so far: 17'452'911 sold

If we count 1.5m Switch on shelves as we speak, switch could already be close to 19m shipped with more than 2 months until the end of FY19 and Animal Crossing yet to be released



Bofferbrauer2 said:
PAOerfulone said:

PS4 and XB1 - That looks about right.

NSW - No way in hell. It has a very good chance to be up YoY, but not THAT much.

I expect all 3 to be a good chunk over the final numbers.

I expect all 3 to be a good chunk under the final numbers.



Supermario28 said:

(...)
Switch FY19 goal: 18m shipped

Switch from first week of April 2019 (W14) to last week of 2019 (W52) sold 16'824'318 units

The first 3 weeks of 2020: 628'593

Switch FY19 so far: 17'452'911 sold

If we count 1.5m Switch on shelves as we speak, switch could already be close to 19m shipped with more than 2 months until the end of FY19 and Animal Crossing yet to be released

That's not how the gap between sell-through and shipments works. If we estimate 1.5m Switch consoles on shelves now, then that's a pretty similar amount to how many Switch consoles were on shelves when entering the current fiscal year, therefore there is nothing to add onto the sell-through numbers for the current fiscal year. ~17.5m in sell-through also means ~17.5m in shipments.

Your maths suggest that Nintendo will annouce shipments of ~11.4m for fiscal Q3 (ended on December 31st), but VGC's sell-through estimates are actually pointing towards ~10.0m, so Nintendo will be at ~17m through three fiscal quarters, leaving them with 1m to go to reach 18m. Of course they'll revise their forecast upwards.

Should Nintendo announce notably higher shipments than ~10.0m, then VGC will adjust their sell-through estimates upwards. We'll know in a week because Nintendo's fiscal results are due on January 30th.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Gamers Club

RolStoppable said:
Supermario28 said:

(...)
Switch FY19 goal: 18m shipped

Switch from first week of April 2019 (W14) to last week of 2019 (W52) sold 16'824'318 units

The first 3 weeks of 2020: 628'593

Switch FY19 so far: 17'452'911 sold

If we count 1.5m Switch on shelves as we speak, switch could already be close to 19m shipped with more than 2 months until the end of FY19 and Animal Crossing yet to be released

That's not how the gap between sell-through and shipments works. If we estimate 1.5m Switch consoles on shelves now, then that's a pretty similar amount to how many Switch consoles were on shelves when entering the current fiscal year, therefore there is nothing to add onto the sell-through numbers for the current fiscal year. ~17.5m in sell-through also means ~17.5m in shipments.

 

I'm not sure I understand this logic. But maybe I'm missing something.

Switch that were on shelves on the 1st of april 2019 should have been counted as shipped during the Q4 FY2018 isn't it?

On the other hand, switch that are on shelves right now were shipped during FY2019 so they should count for this FY.