Forums - Sales Discussion - Your sales expectations for 2020

Switch 24m > All other consoles combined.



Nov 2016 - NES outsells PS1 (JP)

Don't Play Stationary 4 ever. Switch!

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switch: 22.7 million
ps4: 11.2 million
xb1: 3 million

Ps5: 5.5 million
Xbox series X: 4.6 million

feeling very optimistic about everything other than xb1.



Bet with flashfire926: I think switch will win November NPD, and he thinks xbox one will win (if ps4 is victorious, it's a draw). Loser has to state that they lost in the signature for some time.

Barkley said:

siebensus4 said:

PS4: 8M

Just so you know, PS3 sold 8.25m in 2013... It would be strange for the PS4 to suddenly perform worse than the PS3 launch aligned.

Thanks for your thoughts. I expect a PS4 weekly basis of 150K, so with holiday boost we should be around 10M.



Barkley said:

Gonna make a slight change to my predictions:

Switch - 22.5m
PS4 - 9m
XBO - 2.5m

PS5 - 4.5m
XBX - 2.8m

Just for curiosity, can you explain your next gen prediction? Why you think they will sell less than PS4/XB1 (PS4 release in Japan so unless you expect <300k there you think PS5 will sell less in the west)



2020 predictions: NSW 21m, PS5 6m, XSX 4.5m, PS4 9m, XB1 3m
(PS5 and XSX predictions will most likely change after we know enough about them)

Barkley said:

siebensus4 said:

PS4: 8M

Just so you know, PS3 sold 8.25m in 2013... It would be strange for the PS4 to suddenly perform worse than the PS3 launch aligned.

PS3 was a late bloomer and practically sold the same each year 2009-2012 (13M, 13.9, 13.2, 12.2). PS4 had also a plateau 2015 to 2018 with 17.5, 17.6, 19.8 and 18.2. However, the PS4 already started to drop in 2019 like the PS3 only did in 2013. So it might be wiser to compare to PS3 2014, or more correctly, to a mix of 2013 and 2014.

That said, I think the PS4 can beat the 8.25M of the PS3 - if barely so.



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It's hard for me to guess Switch's numbers. They are up year over year by a significant margin, but IDK how their holiday season will be impacted by the new consoles. I think I'll say that it will be around one million higher than this year at 21M.

So
Switch 21M
PS4 9M
XB1 2.5M

PS5 5M
XSX 3.5M



Ryng said:
Barkley said:

Gonna make a slight change to my predictions:

Switch - 22.5m
PS4 - 9m
XBO - 2.5m

PS5 - 4.5m
XBX - 2.8m

Just for curiosity, can you explain your next gen prediction? Why you think they will sell less than PS4/XB1 (PS4 release in Japan so unless you expect <300k there you think PS5 will sell less in the west)

I believe the price is going to have a negative impact, I'm expecting PS5 to be $500 and XSX to be at least $500, possibly even $600. Microsoft are also in a weaker position now than they were post-360 so that'll make the XSX a tougher job to get off the starting line.

Maybe that higher price won't slow initial sales as much as I expect.



LTD: PS4 - 125m, Switch - 110m, XBO - 51m

2020: PS4 - 9m, Switch - 22.5m, XBO - 2.5m, PS5 - 4.5m, XBX - 2.8m

Barkley said:
Ryng said:

Just for curiosity, can you explain your next gen prediction? Why you think they will sell less than PS4/XB1 (PS4 release in Japan so unless you expect <300k there you think PS5 will sell less in the west)

I believe the price is going to have a negative impact, I'm expecting PS5 to be $500 and XSX to be at least $500, possibly even $600. Microsoft are also in a weaker position now than they were post-360 so that'll make the XSX a tougher job to get off the starting line.

Maybe that higher price won't slow initial sales as much as I expect.

meh, price will be a big factor in the first year, but at launch i think they'll both sell almost as much as they ship. This, and considering generations are getting more froant loaded, we are gonna see a big launch.

If they don't have a big launch... that's not a good sign.



2020 predictions: NSW 21m, PS5 6m, XSX 4.5m, PS4 9m, XB1 3m
(PS5 and XSX predictions will most likely change after we know enough about them)