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** Betting is CLOSED - all winnings have been paid out by trunkswd **

 

OpenCritic Prediction - Ori and the Will of the Wisps

50 or Less 0 $0.00 0.00%
 
51 - 55 0 $0.00 0.00%
 
56 - 60 0 $0.00 0.00%
 
61 - 65 0 $0.00 0.00%
 
66 - 70 0 $0.00 0.00%
 
71 - 75 0 $0.00 0.00%
 
76 - 80 0 $0.00 0.00%
 
81 - 85 0 $0.00 0.00%
 
86 - 90 5 $969.00 35.71%
 
91 or Over 9 $2,621.72 64.29%
 
 
Totals: 14 $3,590.72  
Game closed: 03/08/2020

$600 better not happen even with Lockhart, that's too much, they should eat the loss as they're more focused on services nowadays anyway, bundle Gamepass with every console and get people locked into the ecosystem.

Though I wonder how much the rumoured Series X Halo Infinite LE will be. 👀



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Ryuu96 said:
trunkswd said:

With the Coronavirus it is more likely Sony, Microsoft and other electronic companies like Apple an Samsung, will diversify and manufacture their electronics in more countries. Even if Coronavirus stops spreading and things in China improve, being ready for the next potential virus would be smart. 

Actually that makes me wonder, would phone companies get first dibs on manufacturing factories considering they're far bigger than consoles? Could complicate matters even further.

@Shikmaru - Good point about not wanting to split manufacturing between Series X and Lockhart.

I don't know. The parts would be quite different for phones as they would be for consoles. It would likely hurt the Switch more. 



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Ryuu96 said:
$600 better not happen even with Lockhart, that's too much, they should eat the loss as they're more focused on services nowadays anyway, bundle Gamepass with every console and get people locked into the ecosystem.

Though I wonder how much the rumoured Series X Halo Infinite LE will be. 👀

I'd say $499 for Xbox Series X is the best price to launch the console at. It is the same price as the Xbox One at launch, but without Kinect bundled. Then in holiday 2021 release Lockhart for $399.

If the Series X Halo Infinite LE console comes with a bigger SSD and a great design on the console and controller I'd be willing to spend an extra $100 on it. 



VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo

I stream on Twitch and have my own Youtube

Writer of the Gap Charts | Weekly Hardware Breakdown Top 10 | Weekly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features

I also post daily news on the Video Game Industry.

If you want to contact me, send me a PM on here or tweet me @TrunksWD

trunkswd said:
Ryuu96 said:

Actually that makes me wonder, would phone companies get first dibs on manufacturing factories considering they're far bigger than consoles? Could complicate matters even further.

@Shikmaru - Good point about not wanting to split manufacturing between Series X and Lockhart.

I don't know. The parts would be quite different for phones as they would be for consoles. It would likely hurt the Switch more. 

Yeah the parts are different but I'm curious what the overlap is between who makes the parts, might not have the employees...



Nu-13 said:
haxxiy said:

Features and specs sound great.

Now, $599 would seem more likely but here's hoping MS eats the cost and makes it $499 to remain competitive.

Edit - thinking about it, the existence of the Series S makes $499 seem slightly less likely, but we'll see.

How exactly do you see $599 as likely? Specs seem a little above the rumoured ps5 specs (likely retailing for $499), so there shouldn't be a big gap in costs either. Retail price difference between the two would be $50 assuming both companies are selling their system at a small loss/breaking even. But MS could be more than willing to take a bigger loss and match the retail price. Not that I think either of those prices is good, just observing what is more likely.

I mean, even the $499 PS5 should already be taking a $50 - $100 loss when you factor in assembling and retailer margins, if we extrapolate from the PS4 and the Xbox One.  Even a mildly bigger XSX APU, with how expensive the 7 nm process is, means at least a $50 added cost on top of it. And that's being generous, considering how costs baloon with increasing die sizes.

Besides, consider Lockhart. It has a smaller APU, but the costs of all other necessary components put together should come closer to the BoM of the PS4 itself, back when it launched. I don't think Series S is retailing for less than $349 - $399. There must be a reason Microsoft thinks this console has to exist, after all.

Edit - like I said, I don't think it's impossible. But both companies can always bring prices down later on, while they would be mutually harmed with a price war at launch. Sony has pulled such shenaningans in the past, but the console business was more of a showcase for CD/DVD technology to them than a profitable business on itself.



 

 

 

 

 

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Ryuu96 said:
trunkswd said:

I don't know. The parts would be quite different for phones as they would be for consoles. It would likely hurt the Switch more. 

Yeah the parts are different but I'm curious what the overlap is between who makes the parts, might not have the employees...

If there is demand for so many parts the companies manufacturing them would be more than willing to expand. It means more jobs, more revenue and will help the shortages due to Coronavirus from getting really bad. Though, it depends how quickly they can expand and train employees.



VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo

I stream on Twitch and have my own Youtube

Writer of the Gap Charts | Weekly Hardware Breakdown Top 10 | Weekly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features

I also post daily news on the Video Game Industry.

If you want to contact me, send me a PM on here or tweet me @TrunksWD

I still think that MS should aim for:

$500 Series X: 12 tflop
$350-400 Series S: 7-8 tflop

Even if they have to sell both at a small loss early gen to hit those prices, they can make back anything they lose with accessory sales (most accessories like extra controllers are sold at over 2x mark-up), game sales (console digital sales continue to increase, and the profit margin on digital sales is higher than physical), and subscription sales (MS has alot of Xbox Live Gold, Gamepass, and Gamepass Ultimate subs, if their goal moving forward is to push as many Gamepass subs as possible, it does make sense for them to sell hardware at a loss in order to increase the potential userbase for Gamepass as much as possible).



shikamaru317 said:
I still think that MS should aim for:

$500 Series X: 12 tflop
$350-400 Series S: 7-8 tflop

Even if they have to sell both at a small loss early gen to hit those prices, they can make back anything they lose with accessory sales (most accessories like extra controllers are sold at over 2x mark-up), game sales (console digital sales continue to increase, and the profit margin on digital sales is higher than physical), and subscription sales (MS has alot of Xbox Live Gold, Gamepass, and Gamepass Ultimate subs, if their goal moving forward is to push as many Gamepass subs as possible, it does make sense for them to sell hardware at a loss in order to increase the potential userbase for Gamepass as much as possible).

I do agree Series S should be more powerful than what was rumored. Less powerful than Series X, sure. $100-$150 cheaper is what I was thinking the difference in price should be between the Series S and Series X. Maybe even have a Series S model without a disc drive for $50 less. 

As you say with the sales of games, accessories and subscription sales that would more than offset the loss depending on how big. 



VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo

I stream on Twitch and have my own Youtube

Writer of the Gap Charts | Weekly Hardware Breakdown Top 10 | Weekly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features

I also post daily news on the Video Game Industry.

If you want to contact me, send me a PM on here or tweet me @TrunksWD

shikamaru317 said:
I still think that MS should aim for:

$500 Series X: 12 tflop
$350-400 Series S: 7-8 tflop

What would even be the point of such a second console? Say the first runs games at 1800 - 2160p, but what about the latter? It's more powerful than it would need to be for 1080p only, and it would still sell for a loss or at no more than $100 less with such a small difference in APU size, cooling etc. between the two. Not to mention it would leave the former dead in the water as a lead platform.

That would be like if Microsoft released the Xbox One X but it had hardware similar to the PS4, instead of a significant difference. The 4 - 12 TF gap, on the other hand, makes far more sense cost-wise, and the is closer by analogy to the three platforms - PS4, Xbox One, Switch - that have already offered tiers based on resolution.



 

 

 

 

 

haxxiy said:
Nu-13 said:

How exactly do you see $599 as likely? Specs seem a little above the rumoured ps5 specs (likely retailing for $499), so there shouldn't be a big gap in costs either. Retail price difference between the two would be $50 assuming both companies are selling their system at a small loss/breaking even. But MS could be more than willing to take a bigger loss and match the retail price. Not that I think either of those prices is good, just observing what is more likely.

I mean, even the $499 PS5 should already be taking a $50 - $100 loss when you factor in assembling and retailer margins, if we extrapolate from the PS4 and the Xbox One.  Even a mildly bigger XSX APU, with how expensive the 7 nm process is, means at least a $50 added cost on top of it. And that's being generous, considering how costs baloon with increasing die sizes.

Besides, consider Lockhart. It has a smaller APU, but the costs of all other necessary components put together should come closer to the BoM of the PS4 itself, back when it launched. I don't think Series S is retailing for less than $349 - $399. There must be a reason Microsoft thinks this console has to exist, after all.

Edit - like I said, I don't think it's impossible. But both companies can always bring prices down later on, while they would be mutually harmed with a price war at launch. Sony has pulled such shenaningans in the past, but the console business was more of a showcase for CD/DVD technology to them than a profitable business on itself.

That's a huge overestimation.