Forums - Movies Discussion - Tracking The Rise (Or Fall?) of Skywalker

Signalstar said:
No matter what happens TLJ haters will claim victory.

ROS does worse than TLJ at the box office: See we told you TLJ killed the franchise by sucking so much.

ROS does better than TLJ at the box office: See, it did better because it fixed the mistakes of TLJ.

We don't have to wait to see how it performs to claim victory. The very fact that Disney felt the need to retcon, and even throw a few jabs at, TLJ tells us all we need to know. They saw TLJ greatly underperform and the merch sales plummet, and know they screwed up.

In the end, I see this performing close to TLJ. Maybe above it at the DBO, but below at the FBO. Considering that TLJ already underperformed and the budget for ROS is even higher than that film, it's not a good result.



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Lonely_Dolphin said:
Signalstar said:
No matter what happens TLJ haters will claim victory.

ROS does worse than TLJ at the box office: See we told you TLJ killed the franchise by sucking so much.

ROS does better than TLJ at the box office: See, it did better because it fixed the mistakes of TLJ.

But in the end we all lose while Disney wins.

Do they? They could very well still be in the hole as far as their Star Wars acquisition is concerned.



Quick Friday update. ROS has dropped an estimated 71% from last Friday. While this isn't quite as big as a drop as TLJ saw, 76% from opening Friday, it is much worse than the 59% that TFA saw.

ROS currently sits at $316M. This is 1.7% below TLJ's $321.4M at the same point in time. If this continues, ROS will make $609.7M at the DBO. While it does appear that ROS will have slightly better legs compared to TLJ, it is important to note that ROS 1st full week was a holiday break, with the increases that come with it, whereas TLJ saw a holiday break on its 2nd week. I see ROS losing some ground when both film's 2nd week gets added.

At the FBO, ROS sits at $282.3M. This is 7.5% lower than TLJ's $305.2M at the same point in time. If this continues, ROS will make $658M at the FBO, and a WW total of $1.27B. Again, it looks like ROS has made up some ground in the FBO. Of course, it's also important to note that TLJ saw a release in China on Weekend 4, which is why it barely dropped from Weekend 3. ROS will not see this kind of boost, as it is was pretty much a WW launch in the major regions, so will continue steadily dropping each weekend. And while China didn't help much, it gave TLJ a total of $41.2m. ROS's total, on the other hand, will most likely not even match TLJ's opening there of $28.2M. It now sits at $15.1M after its entire 1st week.



KLAMarine said:

Do they? They could very well still be in the hole as far as their Star Wars acquisition is concerned.

Cool graph, but like, box office isn't quite their only source of revenue.



thismeintiel said:

Again, you're spouting fake news.  No one, at least to my knowledge, said it was a catastrophic failure at the box office.  What was said repeatedly is that it greatly underperformed, so quite using that line.  $1.8B was the expectation, but only did $1.33B.  That, and the loss in merch revenue is why TLJ was retconned in ROS.  If TLJ actually performed satisfactorily to Disney's expectations, and merch sales were of no concern, Disney would have continued on with the lore that TLJ created (or destroyed, however you want to look at it.)  But, they didn't, thus cementing that those that didn't like TLJ were not some small insignificant minority, as TLJ fans have been trying to say the past two years.  This fact cannot be ignored, now. 

And TLJ vs Endgame is apples to oranges.  Endgame was the culmination of 11 years worth of films that all saw success.  A lot of people rushed out to see the film to witness what some saw as the end of the Avengers storyline, and to avoid spoilers.  Regardless of what you want to say about legs, it still ended up the #1 movie WW, not taking inflation into account.  Even if you take inflation into account, it has TFA beaten WW.  When you open so big, $100M over TFA domestically, it's hard to not have a big drop off.   It also did better than the Avengers film that came before it.

TLJ was a movie that opened only 15% below its previous installment, which seemingly cemented the ~$1.8B.  It probably could have closed that gap if it was a better film.  Instead it came up ~$475M-$500M short of expectations and increased the gap to 36%.  And then increased that gap to 54% when it came to home video sales.

Sure, very few people explicitly said TLJ was a financial failure. But the way a lot of its haters harped on about it and all the general hyperbole coming from them, you'd swear they thought it was a failure. Also, don't talk to me about "fake news" after some of the stuff I've seen you say in other discussions. But that's not pertinent to the subject of box office revenues, so I'll leave it at that for purposes of this thread.

Re: TLJ vs. Endgame. Special pleading, as usual. Either legs matter or they don't. You can't just selectively decide when they do, regardless of whatever conjectures you may think justifies your decision to do so ("people want to avoid spoilers" can apply to just about any film in a major long-running franchise). Also, it's not like Endgame was the only MCU film—or popular film in general—to be very front-loaded, and they don't have the excuses you offer for Endgame. Plenty of popular movies with relatively weak legs don't get criticized for it, and conversely many movies with relatively strong legs don't get held up as examples of superb box office performance. As for me, I say legs aren't nearly as important as the lifetime gross, especially once you get so far out from opening day. Most major movies these days make 85%+ of their lifetime gross in the first four weeks anyway, so I argue that what happens past Week 4 isn't a huge deal. While money made after Week 4 can pad the lifetime gross a bit, whether a film makes, say, 90% of its lifetime gross in the first four weeks instead of 85% is more of an academic curiosity than an indictment of the film's performance. Could Endgame have had better legs? Maybe. Maybe not. There's no way to know for sure. And it's probably not important. Regardless of how good its legs were, it did very well, regardless of the overall shape of its box office curve. Same for TLJ. There's no reason to single out TLJ, which was my point in bringing up Endgame. But because it's Star Wars that puts a big target on its back for anyone who doesn't like it. It's cherry-picking at its finest.

Re: TLJ's opening weekend. Opening weekends are scattershot as hell when it comes to projecting lifetime grosses, regardless of any other factors. Even when trying to determine just the first full week's gross from the first weekend's involves a significant margin of error. That margin of error grows even more when trying to project a lifetime gross from just the first weekend. You can't just say, "Well, Movie B's opening weekend was 15% less than Movie A's, so it should have a lifetime gross about 15% less than Movie A." It's unreasonable to assume that any movie will keep pace proportionally with any other film, even if they're from the same series, because you rarely see any such similarity in their overall box office curves (it's just like how no two consoles have the same sales curve, to liken this to discussions on game sales). Especially in this case. TFA was one of the least front-loaded major films of the decade domestically, at least in terms of how much its lifetime gross was represented by its opening weekend (though if you look at post-Week 4 numbers, it was more front-loaded percentage-wise in its first month than many other blockbusters). And FWIW, sequels are often more front-loaded than their predecessors. This ties back into what I was saying about legs earlier.

Were you or anyone else serious expecting TLJ to gross $800M lifetime domestic (which would have put it at #3 or #4 for the whole series and #8 to #10 for all movies of the past 45 years) and $1.8B global? How is that in any way, shape, or form reasonable? I could see it have maybe gotten up to $650-675M domestic had it legged it out better past Week 3 (maybe even $700M in the absolute best-case scenario), and a global total of about $1.4-1.5B assuming an unchanged 46.5% domestic share. But anywhere close to $800M domestic and $1.8B global? No way. Only 12 films ever have passed an adjusted gross of $800M domestically (in 2019 ticket prices) for their initial theatrical releases, and of those only 7 of those were in the past 45 years (and of those only 3 were in the past 20 years). Not even TPM managed to do that (its adjusted domestic gross is currently about $764.8M, excluding re-releases) and it was the first new Star Wars film in 16 years after the OT ended.

TLJ did well, and to say it was a box office disappointment is an exaggeration, or at least a claim based on overly optimistic assumptions. You can say "But it's Star Wars" all you want. While people may want to put Star Wars (or at least the OT and the idea of Star Wars in general) on a pedestal, thinking that every movie in the series ought to be absolute god-tier box office monsters with legs so strong they'd put a kangaroo to shame, the idea that the second entry in any Star Wars trilogy ought to have only at most a modest drop from the first is simply placing unrealistic expectations upon it. I've already written about this at length to you multiple times in past threads (the home video thing was already discussed last year as well). I stand by my points and will not spend time reiterating them here.

If you want to continue this, I suggest we either create a new thread or resurrect the old TLJ box office thread, because I want to move on to The Rise of Skywalker now.

I have spoken.



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mZuzek said:
KLAMarine said:

Do they? They could very well still be in the hole as far as their Star Wars acquisition is concerned.

Cool graph, but like, box office isn't quite their only source of revenue.

How has merchandise done?



KLAMarine said:
mZuzek said:

Cool graph, but like, box office isn't quite their only source of revenue.

How has merchandise done?

No idea.



Despite an opening weekend that wasn't exactly record-breaking, TROS is definitely making up for that as it has been steadily closing the gap with TLJ. While I never collected any adjusted daily figures from BOM before they changed their site, current ticket prices are very close to what they were when TLJ was in theaters, so the difference for adjusted vs. non-adjusted should be minimal. Here's the non-adjusted grosses of TROS, TLJ, and, just for the hell of it, Rogue One:


Interesting bits of information here. TROS's first Monday-Thursday period was significantly better than TLJ's. Tuesday gross had a statistical tie with TLJ's first Tuesday, despite this Tuesday being Christmas Eve. Overall, despite its opening weekend falling 19.4% short of TLJ's, its first full week was only 2.3% short of TLJ's, another near-tie. Granted, a non-trivial piece of that was from Christmas Day, where TROS put up the second-biggest Christmas Day gross to date. Friday's gross for TROS was not much better than TLJ's second Friday, but this weekend should be better than TLJ's second weekend overall, seeing as TLJ didn't have to face down Christmas Eve until Sunday of its second weekend. I think after Sunday TROS will have the lead over TLJ. Of course, TLJ had its Christmas Day in Week 2, and between that and an overall extremely rare instance of a film's second Monday-Thursday period actually outperforming the first one, that presents a challenge for TROS for it own second Monday-Thursday period. Overall, TLJ dropped 43.3% in its second week. If TROS can manage even only a 40% WoW drop, that would put its LTD gross at about $463.7M, still maintaining a near-tie with TLJ. If the WoW drop for Week 2 is only 35%, that'll put it at over $478M, nearly 3% ahead of where TLJ was at after its first two weeks.

I will continue the above chart out to the end of Week 3, and I'll try to update it each Monday and Friday until then. By that point, the numbers will be low enough to where day-to-day differences become far less pronounced.

Now, I did actually collect adjusted weekly grosses for a number of major films released this century (mostly from the past 10 years), and here's how TROS's first week stacks up against a bunch of other major blockbusters, with a look ahead at what it faces over the coming weeks:


It will be a long time before anything ever passes The Force Awakens. We may never again see a film with legs like Avatar. And it's hard to see anything beating Endgame's debut anytime soon. And it would be unreasonable to expect anything to do what those films did. But compared to most other major blockbusters from the past 12 years, The Rise of Skywalker is off to a solid start. So far, so good.

If TROS's first week gross as a percent of lifetime gross is closer to the likes of TFA, Rogue One, or Avengers 2012, it could go as high as $670M or more. But if that percentage is closer to TLJ's, that would end up being a near tie. Overall, I think a good median projection for TROS's lifetime gross would be $630-640M, with a 75% chance of exceeding TLJ's lifetime gross by at least $10M, a 20% chance of being within $10M of TLJ, a 5% chance of grossing between $10-20M less than TLJ, and a 5% chance of grossing less than that. However, it's still very early, and box office curves are highly unpredictable. There is always a significant margin of error associated with these things. Still, I think TROS stands a good chance of gaining and maintaining a decent and slowly-increasing lead over TLJ. And even if it only ends up about tying TLJ or falling slightly behind it, that's still a damn good performance, more than sufficient to ensure it's in the Top 10 for the decade and Top 30 for all films from the "Blockbuster Era" (1975-present).



Shadow1980 said:
thismeintiel said:

Again, you're spouting fake news.  No one, at least to my knowledge, said it was a catastrophic failure at the box office.  What was said repeatedly is that it greatly underperformed, so quite using that line.  $1.8B was the expectation, but only did $1.33B.  That, and the loss in merch revenue is why TLJ was retconned in ROS.  If TLJ actually performed satisfactorily to Disney's expectations, and merch sales were of no concern, Disney would have continued on with the lore that TLJ created (or destroyed, however you want to look at it.)  But, they didn't, thus cementing that those that didn't like TLJ were not some small insignificant minority, as TLJ fans have been trying to say the past two years.  This fact cannot be ignored, now. 

And TLJ vs Endgame is apples to oranges.  Endgame was the culmination of 11 years worth of films that all saw success.  A lot of people rushed out to see the film to witness what some saw as the end of the Avengers storyline, and to avoid spoilers.  Regardless of what you want to say about legs, it still ended up the #1 movie WW, not taking inflation into account.  Even if you take inflation into account, it has TFA beaten WW.  When you open so big, $100M over TFA domestically, it's hard to not have a big drop off.   It also did better than the Avengers film that came before it.

TLJ was a movie that opened only 15% below its previous installment, which seemingly cemented the ~$1.8B.  It probably could have closed that gap if it was a better film.  Instead it came up ~$475M-$500M short of expectations and increased the gap to 36%.  And then increased that gap to 54% when it came to home video sales.

Sure, very few people explicitly said TLJ was a financial failure. But the way a lot of its haters harped on about it and all the general hyperbole coming from them, you'd swear they thought it was a failure. Also, don't talk to me about "fake news" after some of the stuff I've seen you say in other discussions. But that's not pertinent to the subject of box office revenues, so I'll leave it at that for purposes of this thread.

Re: TLJ vs. Endgame. Special pleading, as usual. Either legs matter or they don't. You can't just selectively decide when they do, regardless of whatever conjectures you may think justifies your decision to do so ("people want to avoid spoilers" can apply to just about any film in a major long-running franchise). Also, it's not like Endgame was the only MCU film—or popular film in general—to be very front-loaded, and they don't have the excuses you offer for Endgame. Plenty of popular movies with relatively weak legs don't get criticized for it, and conversely many movies with relatively strong legs don't get held up as examples of superb box office performance. As for me, I say legs aren't nearly as important as the lifetime gross, especially once you get so far out from opening day. Most major movies these days make 85%+ of their lifetime gross in the first four weeks anyway, so I argue that what happens past Week 4 isn't a huge deal. While money made after Week 4 can pad the lifetime gross a bit, whether a film makes, say, 90% of its lifetime gross in the first four weeks instead of 85% is more of an academic curiosity than an indictment of the film's performance. Could Endgame have had better legs? Maybe. Maybe not. There's no way to know for sure. And it's probably not important. Regardless of how good its legs were, it did very well, regardless of the overall shape of its box office curve. Same for TLJ. There's no reason to single out TLJ, which was my point in bringing up Endgame. But because it's Star Wars that puts a big target on its back for anyone who doesn't like it. It's cherry-picking at its finest.

Re: TLJ's opening weekend. Opening weekends are scattershot as hell when it comes to projecting lifetime grosses, regardless of any other factors. Even when trying to determine just the first full week's gross from the first weekend's involves a significant margin of error. That margin of error grows even more when trying to project a lifetime gross from just the first weekend. You can't just say, "Well, Movie B's opening weekend was 15% less than Movie A's, so it should have a lifetime gross about 15% less than Movie A." It's unreasonable to assume that any movie will keep pace proportionally with any other film, even if they're from the same series, because you rarely see any such similarity in their overall box office curves (it's just like how no two consoles have the same sales curve, to liken this to discussions on game sales). Especially in this case. TFA was one of the least front-loaded major films of the decade domestically, at least in terms of how much its lifetime gross was represented by its opening weekend (though if you look at post-Week 4 numbers, it was more front-loaded percentage-wise in its first month than many other blockbusters). And FWIW, sequels are often more front-loaded than their predecessors. This ties back into what I was saying about legs earlier.

Were you or anyone else serious expecting TLJ to gross $800M lifetime domestic (which would have put it at #3 or #4 for the whole series and #8 to #10 for all movies of the past 45 years) and $1.8B global? How is that in any way, shape, or form reasonable? I could see it have maybe gotten up to $650-675M domestic had it legged it out better past Week 3 (maybe even $700M in the absolute best-case scenario), and a global total of about $1.4-1.5B assuming an unchanged 46.5% domestic share. But anywhere close to $800M domestic and $1.8B global? No way. Only 12 films ever have passed an adjusted gross of $800M domestically (in 2019 ticket prices) for their initial theatrical releases, and of those only 7 of those were in the past 45 years (and of those only 3 were in the past 20 years). Not even TPM managed to do that (its adjusted domestic gross is currently about $764.8M, excluding re-releases) and it was the first new Star Wars film in 16 years after the OT ended.

TLJ did well, and to say it was a box office disappointment is an exaggeration, or at least a claim based on overly optimistic assumptions. You can say "But it's Star Wars" all you want. While people may want to put Star Wars (or at least the OT and the idea of Star Wars in general) on a pedestal, thinking that every movie in the series ought to be absolute god-tier box office monsters with legs so strong they'd put a kangaroo to shame, the idea that the second entry in any Star Wars trilogy ought to have only at most a modest drop from the first is simply placing unrealistic expectations upon it. I've already written about this at length to you multiple times in past threads (the home video thing was already discussed last year as well). I stand by my points and will not spend time reiterating them here.

If you want to continue this, I suggest we either create a new thread or resurrect the old TLJ box office thread, because I want to move on to The Rise of Skywalker now.

I have spoken.

Doesn't change the fact that you were misrepresenting what people were saying just for the sake of furthering your own narrative, aka fake news.

Avoiding spoilers may be applied to other films, but Endgame actually has the numbers to prove it.  I find it hypocritical that those who wanted to give TLJ every excuse in the book to defend its underperformance, won't even make this logical conclusion for Endgame, when the numbers actually prove it, just because it hurts their narrative.  It didn't open to 1.22B, only 8.3% below TLJ's entire run, then gross another $1.58B, 18.8% more than TLJ's entire run, because people hated it.

More importantly, did Marvel rush out to make another Avengers that completely retconned Endgame, even make fun of it, because it underperformed by $500M and saw their merch sales plummet?  Did the next Marvel film completely flop?  Nope.  This happened to TLJ, though.  So, you can make up any excuse in your head, but in the real world Disney was not happy with how the film performed and how it hurt the franchise.  I know that destroys the TLJ fans' theories about the haters being a small minority of basement dwelling women-hating alt-righters, but I guess it's time for you guys to wake up and smell the coffee.  We are not a minuscule minority.  And we exist all throughout the political spectrum.

Last edited by thismeintiel - on 28 December 2019

thismeintiel said:

Doesn't change the fact that you were misrepresenting what people were saying just for the sake of furthering your own narrative, aka fake news.

Avoiding spoilers may be applied to other films, but Endgame actually has the numbers to prove it.  I find it hypocritical that those who wanted to give TLJ every excuse in the book to defend its underperformance, won't even make this logical conclusion for Endgame, when the numbers actually prove it, just because it hurts their narrative.  It didn't open to 1.22B, only 8.3% below TLJ's entire run, then gross another $1.58B, 18.8% more than TLJ's entire run, because people hated it.

More importantly, did Marvel rush out to make another Avengers that completely retconned Endgame, even make fun of it, because it underperformed by $500M and saw their merch sales plummet?  Did the next Marvel film completely flop?  Nope.  This happened to TLJ, though.  So, you can make up any excuse in your head, but in the real world Disney was not happy with how the film performed and how it hurt the franchise.  I know that destroys the TLJ fans' theories about the haters being a small minority of basement dwelling women-hating alt-righters, but I guess it's time for you guys to wake up and smell the coffee.  We are not a minuscule minority.  And we exist all throughout the political spectrum.

I see lots of conjecture and theorizing, but no solid data (you never even bother to cite your sources when asked). You can read whatever you want into the numbers. It's not like I can stop you. But the only ones with an agenda are people like you. You hate TLJ, so you need to do whatever you can to downplay its box office figures. It's just constant special pleading with you. If this was any other movie, nobody would say a goddamn thing about the overall shape of its box office curve, because nobody would have placed any unique or excessive expectations upon it. But, well, it was a Star Wars film, and some people take their dislike of anything that doesn't do Star Wars they way they like it way too seriously.

Since this is obviously going to turn into a rehash of "debates" past, I'm done here. Any future contributions I have to this thread won't involve replying to you. Just charts, data, and actual serious analysis.