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Tracking The Rise (Or Fall?) of Skywalker

Forums - Movies Discussion - Tracking The Rise (Or Fall?) of Skywalker

I created a chart in the OP to track the ROS's performance against TLJ. I'll track their DBO weekend numbers and LTD, as well as the FBO and WW LTD. I'll fill in the TLJ's FBO LTD later, as I will ahve to go back and read the international articles to get those numbers.



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thismeintiel said:

Don't spout fake news in here. Especially when the numbers are easily accessible to everyone.

TLJ 2nd weekend drop: 67%

A:E 2nd weekend drop: 59%

And the thread continued on for so long because, like this one, it tracked the whole performance of the film. Besides, the movie continued to perform poorly. Its legs were worse than Rogue One. Not just percentage-wise, but in terms of revenue, as well.

Honest mistake on my part. I was looking at data for full weeks when I posted that, not weekends (I tend to focus more on full weeks than weekends; cinemas are open Monday through Thursday as well, after all). TLJ dropped 43.3% in Week 2. Endgame dropped 60.6% in Week 2.

Still, while TLJ could have done better past Week 3, it's not like it was some catastrophic failure like some people implied it was. And I still insist that singling out it's less-than-impressive legs while ignoring other major films with bad or worse legs is a double standard, one that only exists because of the excessive outrage over TLJ. Endgame's legs were so bad relative to its debut that it its Week 3 gross was less than Avengers 2012 and Black Panther and was just barely ahead of Infinity War, and its total gross for all weeks after Week 4 was far less than IW and Avengers 2012 and was not much more than Captain Marvel's. In fact, its total gross for all weeks after Week 2 was only 29.4% more than TLJ's post Week 2 gross, despite its gross from its first two weeks being 44.8% better than TLJ's. (This is all in adjusted terms, BTW.)

If Endgame had stronger legs, it could have potentially been the first film to gross a billion dollars domestically in nominal terms, and the first to have done so in adjusted terms since Titanic. Instead its domestic gross was $150M less than TFA's adjusted gross. If legs are as important as total grosses, then why were Endgame's legs ignored? Why did nobody treat its gross after the first three or four weeks like they're as important as earlier weeks? Because it was largely adored by both general audiences and MCU fans. It wasn't a divisive film that some people treat as if it were an affront to their very being. That's why. People take their fandom way too seriously, especially when Star Wars involved, so when they get a movie they don't like, they take it personally, and even if the movie makes enough to where it's still the #7 movie of the decade and the #26 film of the past 45 years (domestically for both, of course), they'll still find a way to downplay it. Because this is the internet and that's what some fans do now, apparently. This was the case for TLJ, and it's going to be the case for TROS. Anything to feel that their ire has been vindicated and justified.

Box office figures, review scores, etc., have become weapons in some pseudo-political (and frequently just flat-out political-political) pissing contest.

Last edited by Shadow1980 - on 28 December 2019

Shadow1980 said:
thismeintiel said:

Don't spout fake news in here. Especially when the numbers are easily accessible to everyone.

TLJ 2nd weekend drop: 67%

A:E 2nd weekend drop: 59%

And the thread continued on for so long because, like this one, it tracked the whole performance of the film. Besides, the movie continued to perform poorly. Its legs were worse than Rogue One. Not just percentage-wise, but in terms of revenue, as well.

Honest mistake on my part. I was looking at data for full weeks when I posted that, not weekends (I tend to focus more on full weeks than weekends; cinemas are open Monday through Thursday as well, after all). TLJ dropped 43.3% in Week 2. Endgame dropped 60.6% in Week 2.

Still, while TLJ could have done better past Week 3, it's not like it was some catastrophic failure like some people implied it was. And I still insist that singling out it's less-than-impressive legs while ignoring other major films with bad or worse legs is a double standard, one that only exists because of the excessive outrage over TLJ. Endgame's legs were so bad relative to its debut that it its Week 3 gross was less than Avengers 2012 and Black Panther and was just barely ahead of Infinity War, and its total gross for all weeks after Week 4 was far less than IW and Avengers 2012 and was even less than Captain Marvel's. In fact, its total gross for all weeks after Week 2 was only 8% more than TLJ's post Week 2 gross (this is all in adjusted terms, BTW).

If Endgame had stronger legs, it could have potentially been the first film to gross a billion dollars domestically in nominal terms, and the first to have done so in adjusted terms since Titanic. Instead its domestic gross was $150M less than TFA's adjusted gross. If legs are as important as total grosses, then why were Endgame's legs ignored? Why did nobody treat its gross after the first three or four weeks like they're as important as earlier weeks? Because it was largely adored by both general audiences and MCU fans. It wasn't a divisive film that some people treat as if it were an affront to their very being. That's why. People take their fandom way too seriously, especially when Star Wars involved, so when they get a movie they don't like, they take it personally, and even if the movie makes enough to where it's still the #7 movie of the decade and the #26 film of the past 45 years (domestically for both, of course), they'll still find a way to downplay it. Because this is the internet and that's what some fans do now, apparently. This was the case for TLJ, and it's going to be the case for TROS. Anything to feel that their ire has been vindicated and justified.

Box office figures, review scores, etc., have become weapons in some pseudo-political (and frequently just flat-out political-political) pissing contest.

Again, you're spouting fake news.  No one, at least to my knowledge, said it was a catastrophic failure at the box office.  What was said repeatedly is that it greatly underperformed, so quit using that line.  $1.8B was the expectation, but only did $1.33B.  That, and the loss in merch revenue is why TLJ was retconned in ROS.  If TLJ actually performed satisfactorily to Disney's expectations, and merch sales were of no concern, Disney would have continued on with the lore that TLJ created (or destroyed, however you want to look at it.)  But, they didn't, thus cementing that those that didn't like TLJ were not some small insignificant minority, as TLJ fans have been trying to say the past two years.  This fact cannot be ignored, now. 

And TLJ vs Endgame is apples to oranges.  Endgame was the culmination of 11 years worth of films that all saw success.  A lot of people rushed out to see the film to witness what some saw as the end of the Avengers storyline, and to avoid spoilers.  Regardless of what you want to say about legs, it still ended up the #1 movie WW, not taking inflation into account.  Even if you take inflation into account, it has TFA beaten WW.  When you open so big, $100M over TFA domestically, it's hard to not have a big drop off.   It also did better than the Avengers film that came before it.

TLJ was a movie that opened only 15% below its previous installment, which seemingly cemented the ~$1.8B.  It probably could have closed that gap if it was a better film.  Instead it came up ~$475M-$500M short of expectations and increased the gap to 36%.  And then increased that gap to 54% when it came to home video sales.

Last edited by thismeintiel - on 24 December 2019

OlfinBedwere said:
haxxiy said:
To land below Rogue One in the box office in the end could potentially - although we'll never have more than rough estimates for this, considering studios don't divulge the number of tickets sold - make ROS match or go under AOTC as the least watched of all the nine Star Wars movies.

Adjusted for inflation, AOTC's gross works out to about $925m. I think ROS should finish ahead of that, given the lack of any particularly strong competition in the weeks ahead - unless Jumanji: The Next Level and/or Frozen 2 rebounds over the Christmas period.

The adjusted domestic grosses for the original theatrical runs of all the SW films are as follows:

Title Adjusted Gross
Rank (1975-present)
Star Wars $1,286,033,500 #1
Star Wars: The Force Awakens $974,117,000 #5
Star Wars: Episode I - The Phantom Menace $764,280,500 #9
Return of the Jedi $729,660,300 #10
The Empire Strikes Back $710,548,800 #11
Star Wars: The Last Jedi $609,026,300 #26
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story $544,579,000 #32
Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sith $534,514,500 #36
Star Wars: Episode II - Attack of the Clones $468,630,500 #56
Solo: A Star Wars Story $205,860,700 #453


Merry Christmas, everyone!

I just wanted to post a quick update. With 2 extra days of WW tracking, so 5 days vs 3, ROS has matched TLJ's $450M opening weekend and now sits at $453.6M. It also seems that the numbers at the FBO are dropping quicker than the DBO, because the FBO started out being ~52.7% of the total WW revenue, but has now dropped to ~50%.



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thismeintiel said:
Merry Christmas, everyone!

I just wanted to post a quick update. With 2 extra days of WW tracking, so 5 days vs 3, ROS has matched TLJ's $450M opening weekend and now sits at $453.6M. It also seems that the numbers at the FBO are dropping quicker than the DBO, because the FBO started out being ~52.7% of the total WW revenue, but has now dropped to ~50%.

Well, ROS debuted just before Christmas break in the US, so there's more people watching the movie during week days than usual. If this is correct, FBO should be relatively more important again after the next weekend or so.



 

 

 

 

 

Really nice to keep track of the box office for the new Star Wars film. :)



No matter what happens TLJ haters will claim victory.

ROS does worse than TLJ at the box office: See we told you TLJ killed the franchise by sucking so much.

ROS does better than TLJ at the box office: See, it did better because it fixed the mistakes of TLJ.



http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F1gWECYYOSo

Please Watch/Share this video so it gets shown in Hollywood.

Signalstar said:
No matter what happens TLJ haters will claim victory.

ROS does worse than TLJ at the box office: See we told you TLJ killed the franchise by sucking so much.

ROS does better than TLJ at the box office: See, it did better because it fixed the mistakes of TLJ.

TLJ stans (and what a stupid term, but then, so is "haters") will do the converse. But this is how everything is now, pretty much: facts don't matter and both sides always claim victory according to their spin.



Signalstar said:
No matter what happens TLJ haters will claim victory.

ROS does worse than TLJ at the box office: See we told you TLJ killed the franchise by sucking so much.

ROS does better than TLJ at the box office: See, it did better because it fixed the mistakes of TLJ.

But in the end we all lose while Disney wins.