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Tracking The Rise (Or Fall?) of Skywalker

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thismeintiel said:

Well, at least we can put away the silly argument that was franchise fatigue.

We can also put away the silly argument that Solo's poor performance was purely the result of fans boycotting the movie over The Last Jedi, and that the fact that it was released up against Avengers: Infinity War and Deadpool 2 had absolutely nothing to do with it.



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Havn't seen it but I hear it is the best Star wars film yet and a true masterpiece beyond even the 70's trilogy.



 

I doubt it will break the billion globally, if it does it will be very slightly.



 

The Last Jedi was like 70% - 80% audience score on release if I'm not mistaken. In fact, it seems to be a Star Wars pattern, if you look like what people thought of The Phantom Menace back on the premiere.



 

 

 

 

 

I love the Star Wars IP, but I'm pretty over these Disney movies already, so I'm not gonna go see it in theaters. A friend of mine watched it recently and told me it was insultingly stupid so....doubt I'm missing much. I'm sure Kathleen is gonna be shown the door at some point now that this trilogy is over, so hopefully whoever takes over next, whatever direction they decide to go, at the very least comes in with a solid vision of what kind of stories they'd like to tell, rather than just having a revolving door of directors making it up as they go along.



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Despite the chilly reception from critics, the audience score at RT is sitting at a strong 86%. While the opening weekend may not be as strong as TLJ's, it's still looking like a roughly $200M weekend domestic. If it can leg it out better (in terms of percentages, not absolute numbers) than TLJ, perhaps closer to Rogue One or TFA, it could still out-gross TLJ due to good audience reception. Opening weekends as a percentage of lifetime gross is completely scattershot. Among the Top 30 opening weekends ever (unadjusted), we see opening weekends range from 26.5% (for TFA) to 50% (for Batman vs. Superman) of the lifetime gross. I doubt TROS will be as front-loaded as TLJ, but more front-loaded than TFA and R1.

Also, let's not forget that TLJ's second weekend ended on Christmas Eve, which is always a rough day for the box office. That was why the second weekend had such a large drop. Meanwhile, TFA had Christmas Eve fall on the Thursday after release, with Christmas Day (usually a good day for the box office) falling on a Friday. Rogue One had both Christmas Eve and Christmas Day its second weekend, For its second week as a whole, it had a far more modest drop of -43.3%, which is equal to or less than the second-week drop experienced by other blockbusters. In fact, it was actually up WoW for the Monday-Thursday period of Week 2, something that almost never happens for a major movie. TLJ only really started to lag behind other films with similar performances after its third week. If it had remained on par with such films, it could have reached $700M.

TROS ought to have a smaller second-weekend drop than TLJ but a larger one than TFA, seeing as both Christmas Eve and Christmas Day are in the middle of week this year. Overall, given the usual percentage of Week 1 comprised by the opening weekend for similar films, it ought to gross around $280-300M for this first week. Assuming a roughly 40% drop for Week 2, it ought to do $170-180M, then maybe another 50% drop for Week 3, adding another $85-90M. This would put it at $535-570M for the first three weeks, about 2.5% less to 3.8% more than TLJ. If post-Week 3 legs are better than TLJ's, then it stands a very good chance of outgrossing TLJ.

If I had to give a worst-case-to-best-case range for TROS, I would put it at $600-700M. That's less than my initial projections as I expected both a larger weekend and a ROTJ/ROTS-level second-to-third film increase. Still, that would be more than enough to put it in the Top 8 films of the decade domestically, and easily the #2 film of 2019. Globally, if its overseas gross can at least equal its domestic gross, then we're looking at $1.2-1.4B, though if it's 45% domestic/55% overseas like TFA and TLJ then the worldwide gross could go as high as $1.3-1.55B.



OlfinBedwere said:
thismeintiel said:

Well, at least we can put away the silly argument that was franchise fatigue.

We can also put away the silly argument that Solo's poor performance was purely the result of fans boycotting the movie over The Last Jedi, and that the fact that it was released up against Avengers: Infinity War and Deadpool 2 had absolutely nothing to do with it.

Considering what Disney did in the ROS to try to retcon TLJ, as well as the few jabs thrown Rian Johnson's way, my guess is Disney knows that fan backlash had quite a bit to do with it.  Not the sole reason, but was definitely a big part of it.

John2290 said:
I doubt it will break the billion globally, if it does it will be very slightly.

That would definitely be a big underperformance.  Especially since this film probably cost over $300M to make with all of the reshoots.  Add in a crazy marketing budget and this film may need ~$900M to break even.



KLAMarine said:
Hiku said:

Critical perception vs Audience rating is essentially reversed for this one.

Word of mouth may bring in more people to TROS for upcoming weeks compared to the previous film.

I wonder what will happen as the verified ratings increase for the audience score. 215k versus 19k.

Remember that RT changed their policies regarding user reviews earlier this year after Captain Marvel was review-bombed. Essentially, you have to have actually bought a ticket through Fandango to leave a review (and I don't think you can leave a review until after the actual showtime of a film). These anti-brigading measures will likely mean that we won't see movies with 200k+ user reviews anymore. But with an actual vetting process in place, it should increase the quality of user reviews even if it decreases the quantity. 20k+ is still a very good sample size, and since RT has made to where not every random person on the internet with an axe to grind can leave a user review even if they haven't actually seen the movie, it should greatly cut down on troll reviews.

Other sites like Metacritic (which is awful for user reviews, as it seems 90% of reviewers think the only scores worth giving to anything are either 1 or 10) and IMDb don't yet have any similar process of vetting user reviews, so review-bombers may still strike there. TROS's IMDb page already has a lot of obviously bad-faith reviews, with 7.5% of people dropping a 1/10 score, a big spike from the people that gave it a 2/10. If you take away those 1/10 reviews, the arithmetic average increases from 6.9/10 to 7.4/10, which shows how much even a modest amount of 1/10 reviews can tank an average score. Why else do you think bad-faith actors tend to drop lowest-possible review scores? (It's like how one or two bad matches can wreck my K/D ratio for the day when I play Halo, even if I have a lot of good matches where I do at least my career average.) Two-thirds of user reviews were a 7/10 or higher, with the most common score being an 8/10. Only 16.6% of users gave it a 4/10 or less.

With pretty much every film that's not obvious MST3K fodder (think Plan 9 from Outer Space, Howard the Duck, Biodome, Ishtar, etc.), I really, really doubt that when people give extremely low scores that they are giving their honest appraisal of a film's quality. Rather, I think they are simply leaving protest votes designed to hurt the average score. A lot of movies, games, and TV shows in recent years have been drawn into internet nerd wars and culture/politics wars (of which there's often significant overlap), and as a result we've seen a huge influx of these bad-faith actors flooding various websites with lowest-possible reviews (and to be fair there are probably some people who try to counter those 1/10 scores by giving the title a 10/10). Things reached a critical mass with the aforementioned Captain Marvel earlier this year, which is what prompted RT to change their policies. In this day and age a vetting process is needed.



Disney already said this film was on track to being one of, if not THE most successful films of all time. I don't know why this thread even exists.



Twitter: @d21lewis  --I'll add you if you add me!!

Ouch time: $47 million on Saturday for the US according to insiders, less than $18 million oficially projected for the entire weekend in China. Worldwide first week totals might be 25% down on TLJ, and $1 billion worldwide might be a struggle depending on legs.