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Forums - Movies Discussion - Star Wars: Episode IX – The Rise of Skywalker // predictions?


Global Box office?

Under 500M 0 0%
500M-1000M 5 22.73%
1000M-1500M 10 45.45%
1500M-2000M 6 27.27%
Over 2000M 1 4.55%

They made another one... expectations? Worse than Episode 8?


Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (also known as Star Wars: Episode IX – The Rise of Skywalker) is an upcoming American epic space opera film produced, co-written, and directed by J. J. Abrams. It will be the third installment of the Star Wars sequel trilogy, following The Force Awakens (2015) and The Last Jedi (2017), and the final episode of the nine-part "Skywalker saga".[a] It is being produced by Lucasfilm and Abrams's production company Bad Robot Productions, and will be distributed by Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures.

The film's ensemble cast includes Carrie Fisher, Mark Hamill, Adam Driver, Daisy Ridley, John Boyega, Oscar Isaac, Anthony Daniels, Naomi Ackie, Domhnall Gleeson, Richard E. Grant, Lupita Nyong'o, Keri Russell, Joonas Suotamo, Kelly Marie Tran, Ian McDiarmid, and Billy Dee Williams. The Rise of Skywalker follows the Resistance as they face the First Order once more, and the end of the ancient conflict between the Jedi and the Sith.

Last edited by CGI-Quality - on 02 December 2019

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The only Star Wars movies that really do record breaking box office are ones that have 10+ year build up and/or the original in 1977 which was an obvious event. 

Remove that and the box office of SW movies normalizes considerably.

So yeah, I'd say more than 1 bill WW but less than 1.5 bill probably. 

Better than the prequel-trilogy anyway, but that's not exactly a high bar to clear. I'd expect it to be a perfectly enjoyable film on its own, and it'll most likely end up making over 1 billion almost regardless of reviews. How much over depends on how angry Star Wars fans are going to get over it this time and how many of them will get angry. Some will do so no matter what the film is like, because that's just how things work.

Better than The Last Jedi, and under 2B. The Last Jedi did 1.4B or something, so I'll guess 1.5-2.0B. To put a number on it; 1.7B.

Also OP: "They made another one..." You seem surprised there is an Episode 9?

1.7 is way too high IMO, Star Wars is not popular in China because they don't give a crap about 70s/80s nostalgia and you're not getting 1.7 without that.

The only SW movies that make that kind of money are the ones that have a long break period in between so they become event movies.

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The third movies have always beaten the second by a decent amount. China is irrelevant here since none of the Star Wars movies, even The Force Awakens, have made much of an impact there at all. Since The Last Jedi made about 1.4B, Rise of Skywalker will be above that. Hence 1.5-2.0B. Unless, as some presume, The Last Jedi's backlash did in fact damage the franchise to an unprecedented extend. I'm banking on it mostly having been a vocal minority though. We'll see.

Inflation adjusted these are the Star Wars "sequels" that aren't the original film or don't have a 10+ year time gap to artificially build up hype:

Empire Strikes Back: $1.6 billion
Return of the Jedi: $1.2 billion or $1.477 billion*
Attack of the Clones: $928 million
Revenge of the Sith: $1.1 billion
The Last Jedi: $1.3 billion

*there is some discrepenancy on ROTJ as Boxofficemojo has a lower number than The Numbers, it's unclear who has the correct number so both are listed.

I think since SW movies are no longer a rarity event, $1.3 bill-ish may in fact be the new normal. Even during the OT and prequels you didn't have side movies like Rogue One and Solo in between, it just makes every new Star Wars movie less of an event type of thing. 

I also just checked, I appear to remember things a bit wrong on Return of the Jedi versus Empire, only in the prequel trilogy did the third one beat the second. Eh, my point stands though. Revenge was way better than Clones, I expect Rise to be better than Last Jedi (how do we shorten that one anyway? "Jedi" is already taken by Return of the Jedi ) all the same.

Expecting it to do well but the everyday man will blast it. I don't really blame them...

KLAMarine said:
Expecting it to do well but the everyday man will blast it. I don't really blame them...

I expect "nerds" will be the ones with issues, "everyday man" doesn't give that much of a shit about the movies they watch. "Everyday Man" thinks Transformers movies are pretty good and Star Wars films with maybe the exception of Attack of the Clones are comfortably above that threshold.