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Forums - Sales Discussion - Global Hardware 07 September 2019

zorg1000 said:
JRPGfan said:

ZhugeEX kinda confirmed its over 100m though.
He said that PS4 was over 30m in the USA, and its almost 30% of total PS4 sales.

That basically saying theres over 70m PS4 out there, somewhere else not in the USA.

Sony did at one point say they had now shipped more than 100m units.

That doesnt confirm 100m sell through, he said over 30m in US and around 30% of total sales. It could be 30.1m in US and be 30.5% of sales which would be like ~98.7m globally.

Since he didn't specifically mention 100m sell through and Sony hasnt commented on it yet than it's safe to say it's not quite there yet.

  • OVER 30M in US.
  • AROUND 30%
  • And you somehow get 98.7M? Thats very one sided math.

If 30.1M of anything represents at 30% of anything, that means for certain that "anything" is at least 100M. Only way its less is if you took "around"  30% to mean "more" than 30%. In which case I would ask why didn't he also say "OVER" 30% too?

Whatever the case we are clutching straws here... even if its not 100M, it can't be short of that mark by more than 500k (0.5%) as you have even pointed out by your calculation... which falls well within any sales estimate margin of error.

And sony doesn't need to comment on it "again" cause just last month or so they announced they had shipped over 100M consoles. No point coming back and saying and now e have sold over 100M consoles. Further more, as they have done for most of ts gen, they only really talk about sell through numbers around January very year.



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NS first, PS4 very strong too, XBOne a very distant third with barely acceptable sales, and this week NS and XBOne up a little, PS4 up a lot.



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Intrinsic said:
zorg1000 said:

That doesnt confirm 100m sell through, he said over 30m in US and around 30% of total sales. It could be 30.1m in US and be 30.5% of sales which would be like ~98.7m globally.

Since he didn't specifically mention 100m sell through and Sony hasnt commented on it yet than it's safe to say it's not quite there yet.

  • OVER 30M in US.
  • AROUND 30%
  • And you somehow get 98.7M? Thats very one sided math.

If 30.1M of anything represents at 30% of anything, that means for certain that "anything" is at least 100M. Only way its less is if you took "around"  30% to mean "more" than 30%. In which case I would ask why didn't he also say "OVER" 30% too?

Whatever the case we are clutching straws here... even if its not 100M, it can't be short of that mark by more than 500k (0.5%) as you have even pointed out by your calculation... which falls well within any sales estimate margin of error.

And sony doesn't need to comment on it "again" cause just last month or so they announced they had shipped over 100M consoles. No point coming back and saying and now e have sold over 100M consoles. Further more, as they have done for most of ts gen, they only really talk about sell through numbers around January very year.

I think you are misinterpreting my point. I gave 30.1m and 30.5% for a total of ~98.7m as an example to show how it's not confirmed to be over 100m.

On the flip side it could be 30.5m and 30.1% for a total of ~101.3m.

My overall point is that there is nothing confirmed which is what the person I responded to said.



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Barkley said:
zorg1000 said:

That doesnt confirm 100m sell through, he said over 30m in US and around 30% of total sales. It could be 30.1m in US and be 30.5% of sales which would be like ~98.7m globally.

Since he didn't specifically mention 100m sell through and Sony hasnt commented on it yet than it's safe to say it's not quite there yet.

Sony not announcing 100m as soon as it happens doesn't confirm it hasn't reach it either. The same argument has been made in the past, sure not for as big a milestone, but people claiming sales must be lower than a certain figure because lack of an announcement only to proved wrong later.

Zhuugex likely hasn't mentioned it because he's not completely sure, after all he says "over 30m", "approximately 30%" and as you say, without EXACT figures you can't say definitively one way or another if it has passed 100m, so he doesn't.

Personally as of today I'm sure the PS4 has sold-through over 100m, but we'll find out soon enough.

Absolutely, it goes both ways, it's not confirmed to be over or under 100m, all we know for sure is that it's really close to 100m.

And you're right, Zhuge might not know for sure and Sony might not announce it since they announced 100m shipments recently.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

Evilms said:
PlayStation®4 hardware unit sales : 100 million (As of June 30, 2019)

https://www.sie.com/en/corporate/data.html

That's sell-in (shipped) not sell through, what the discussion is about :>



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zorg1000 said:
Intrinsic said:
  • OVER 30M in US.
  • AROUND 30%
  • And you somehow get 98.7M? Thats very one sided math.

If 30.1M of anything represents at 30% of anything, that means for certain that "anything" is at least 100M. Only way its less is if you took "around"  30% to mean "more" than 30%. In which case I would ask why didn't he also say "OVER" 30% too?

Whatever the case we are clutching straws here... even if its not 100M, it can't be short of that mark by more than 500k (0.5%) as you have even pointed out by your calculation... which falls well within any sales estimate margin of error.

And sony doesn't need to comment on it "again" cause just last month or so they announced they had shipped over 100M consoles. No point coming back and saying and now e have sold over 100M consoles. Further more, as they have done for most of ts gen, they only really talk about sell through numbers around January very year.

I think you are misinterpreting my point. I gave 30.1m and 30.5% for a total of ~98.7m as an example to show how it's not confirmed to be over 100m.

On the flip side it could be 30.5m and 30.1% for a total of ~101.3m.

My overall point is that there is nothing confirmed which is what the person I responded to said.

Oh ok then,I understand. My bad.



Switch more than 5:1 over the Xbone, and regularly shaving 200k off the lifetime gap per week.

Gears 5 should give the Xbone a boost next week, but at this point I don't think anything can substantially alter its trajectory.



Wonder if (or if any) impact will be made by Borderlands 3. I think it'll help a bit, might see the PS4 above 250k or close to it.



I forgot to mention that I reckon the switch is over tracked (compared to vgchartz estimates) for Q2/2019 and ps4 undertracked for the same period (until know), just like happened with Q1/2019, but we will know at the end of October!!



curl-6 said:

Switch more than 5:1 over the Xbone, and regularly shaving 200k off the lifetime gap per week.

Gears 5 should give the Xbone a boost next week, but at this point I don't think anything can substantially alter its trajectory.

The thing is though, Switch and PS4 sales go up and down by around 25% in a week so you see the Switch ranging from 190k-250k with various new games or new hardware and that system is the big thing right now, if the Xbox was to fluctuate upwards by 25% of its current sales with the release of Gears you have it normally ranging from 50-60k so.... if it jumped by 25% that could go as high as.... 75k? I mean... if the sales from Gears caused the system to start selling 100% more every week that would mean that weekly would rise to 100k and that's still 150k less than the Switch cruising speed right now, I've said this for a while now, but the X1 as a system is dead, it went into that death spiral last year and is well past the point of recovery to any meaningful weekly numbers.

I would more see Gears as being like Breath of the Wild was to the WiiU, a nice gesture for the players who had the system but realistically it's not going to attract people to buy what's clearly a system with no future at this point in the Generation, not the base model at least, it could shift a few X models to people who want to play gears... but didn't like Gears 1 Ultimate or Gears 4 but now they have come into some cash or so and want a powerful machine and Gears 5 is enough to push them over the edge to make the sale, but.... that's a very small increase in sales I'll bet. This kinda goes back to things like new Forza games potentially selling more Xbox1's I mean.... Forza Horizon 4 came out, did they think it would make people buy the system who weren't sold on buying it when Forza Horizon 2 came out? Or Forza Horizon 3? Or Forza Horizon : Fast and the Furious, or Forza Motorsport 5.....6 or 7?



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