This 20M thing again. Its like you guys just like the sound of 20M.
Think about this, as far as weekly sales go, the 2019 FY sales so far for the Nintendo switch is still 1M behind PS4 2018 sales at the same time last year. And the PS4 ended up selling only 18M for that year. The PS4 also had a $199 boost for a while last year along with Spiderman and RDR2.
I'll say again...
week 26 2018 PS4=~7M(rounded down), week 26 2018 NS=~5M(rounded up) And the PS4 ended the year doing 18M.
Week 26 2019 NS= ~6M
Now if you are really using VGC data, then even a cursory look at the weekly sales of the switch in 2019 will show you that its so far tracking very similarly to the PS4 sales in 2018. Even though it's still behind by just 1M it still similar. So you aren't only expecting it to make up that 1M sales deficit from the PS4 in 2018, but you are expecting it to get 2M more sales on top of that and exceed it.
Well, a $199 switch is coming though, so I guess anything is possible. I am just saying its not as cut and dry as you make it sound. And if you are making your estimates based on current and previous sales data? then the datat actualy is suggesting t lands somewhere around 18M soldfor the year. Not 20M. But again, $199 swith... so who knows?
First off, do you even understand how he's derived his 20m figure? It's not random or arbitrary or simply because he likes the sound of it.
Second, it's not a good idea to compare H1 figures between Sony and Nintendo given how H2 plays out for each.
Look at 2018 first half for both:
PS4 - 7,016,919
Switch - 4,898,946
Now look at the second half of 2018 for both:
PS4 - 10,983,848
Switch - 11,587,952
So despite the 2.1 million deficit at the half way mark, Switch finished 600k ahead in the second half. So now Switch is ~1.2 million ahead of last year to date, sales are heavily favored to H2 and a $199 model is coming....so it's not as cut and dry as much as you think it won't.