NPD: PS4 2016 vs Switch 2019

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How much more will Switch sell compared to PS4?

Switch will not outsell PS4 7 15.56%
500k-1 million 2 4.44%
1 million-1.5 million 12 26.67%
1.5 million-2 million 6 13.33%
2 million-2.5 million 5 11.11%
2.5 million-3 million 5 11.11%
Over 3 million 8 17.78%
Barkley said:
DonFerrari said:
In USA PS4 had X1 competing fiercely for sales. WW would be a harder battle.

Switch is at 5,778,903 WW for 2019 and PS4 was at 5,246,935 WW for 2016. Switch is winning NPD by 9.7% so far, and WW by 10.1% so actually in WW comparison it's doing slightly better. 

PS4 sold 17.5m in 2016 and Switch will sell 19.5-20m this year. It's the legs of the PS4 that are going to be the killer.

Yes, the legs, but WW. USA only I expect Switch to end in front. Because considering USA PS4 vs X1 is like 55-45 while WW it would be more like 70-30. So Switch will have an easier time finishing ahead of PS4 in USA than WW.

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Wow, the switch might end the year with around 6.5 million

Thanks for putting this together.

Switch has a pretty steady slate of software coming now - Marvel and Fire Emblem in July, Astral Chain in August, Daemon x Machina, Zelda and Dragon Quest in September, Pokemon and Mario & Sonic in November, plus Luigi's Mansion 3 in either October or December, plus multi-platform games and ports. Add in the pretty much inevitable Mini hardware revision and its accompanying lower price point, and Switch will definitely come out on top in this comparison.

Shadow1980 said:

Here's a chart:

The chart say Switch VS 3DS :P

2020 predictions: NSW 21m, PS5 6m, XSX 4.5m, PS4 9m, XB1 3m
(PS5 and XSX predictions will most likely change after we know enough about them)

I am curious to see what happens to sales when Pokemon hits later this year. I think the Switch has a great shot at selling more than the ps4. Not that it matters, both are doing exceptionally well.

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Love these kind of threads! Looking forward to seeing how it turns out throughout the year.

Signature goes here!

Bofferbrauer2 said:

Chart says Switch vs. 3DS in the heather ^^

Ryng_Tolu said:

The chart say Switch VS 3DS :P


I had a chart comparing the Switch to the PS4 and 3DS. When I trimmed the title, I deleted the wrong system name. Thanks for pointing out my mistake. I never even noticed.

Azantix said:
Huh, maybe Switch is on pace to beat PS4 lifetime? Maybe? I'm not sure, I'm not exactly the best at predicting stuff like this hehe

In the U.S., probably. The PS4 could end up being down by as much as 30% YoY (though that's in large part due to the PS4 getting big short-term boosts from God of War, Spider-Man, and RDR2). The PS5 comes out next year, so we can probably assume yet another big drop-off, maybe 40% given what we saw last gen. Assume two more years of sales after that, with sales declining about 50% each year. That could gives us something like this (round up to the nearest 50k):

2019: 3.75M
2020: 2.25M
2021: 1.15M
2022: 0.55

That's a total of 7.7M. The PS4 was at 28.34M at the end of 2018, so that gives it a life figure of about 36 million units. Not quite as good as the 37.5M I was projecting earlier this generation, but still good considering the XBO has done well enough to siphon off much of Sony's market share.

The Switch is hard to project right now. Nintendo consoles still tend to peak relatively early (except for the DS, Game Boy, and maybe the NES, they all peaked by their third full year) and Nintendo has been running on a shorter cycle than PS & Xbox. Still, I think the Switch stands a very good likelihood of beating the PS4. It's been up considerably from last year:

If its baseline continues to average at least 20% for the remainder of the year and it gets a solid boost from holiday deals plus another extra 500k or so from Pokemon, it could easily sell well north of 7M, which will put it ahead of the PS4, at least in the short term. The PS4 did after all maintain strong sales for the following two years, with nearly 10.8M total between 2017 & 2018. However, the Switch also hardware revisions to look forward to, but the effects of hardware revisions on sales have been inconsistent. Some caused sales to grown considerably over a long period of time (e.g., DS Lite, 360 S, PS3 Slim), others have had more modest short-term effects (e.g., PS4 Slim, XBO S, PS2 Slim, New 3DS). The effects of hardware revisions on the Switch's sales will figure heavily into what the system's lifetime sales will be. If they have a very modest effect, the Switch could end up selling about on par with the PS4. If at least one of them has a better, more long-term effect, the Switch could end up beating the PS4 by a good margin.

Other factors could push the Switch even higher potentially, such as a hardware revision exceeding expectations, or Nintendo deciding to run on a longer cycle by supporting the Switch longer and more strongly than they've done with the rest of their systems over the past 25 years, which could put the Switch way beyond the PS4 and perhaps even ahead of the Wii. But considering the norms for Nintendo console sales curves and the average effects of hardware revisions, I am not presently assuming extremely massive improvements to the current baseline or an uncharacteristically slow post-peak drop-off.

Right now I'm projecting 37.5M, ±2.5M. So, a very high likelihood of beating the PS4 in the U.S. Worst-case scenario, it falls slightly short.

Azantix said:

Yeah I've noticed that sales in Europe aren't as good as the other countries, it's passed lifetime PS4 sales in Japan, right? Though if it has I'd assume it's because of the portable aspect since the Japanese market goes crazy for that. Thank you so much for the reply!

Europe has always been Sonyland. The PS4 has been selling at about PS2 levels in Europe so far (though because the PS2 had ridiculously good legs, which systems tend to not have anymore, the PS4 will probably fall well short of the PS2 lifetime), while the Switch hasn't been selling as well as it has in the U.S. In fact, the U.S. has always been more Nintendo-friendly than Europe. While total PS3+360 sales were only about 13% less than what they were in the U.S., the Wii sold nearly 20% fewer unit in Europe than in the U.S., so even relative to the market size Nintendo doesn't do quite as well in Europe as it does elsewhere.

Ryng_Tolu said:
PS4 November 2016 numbers estimate should be around 1.2m. The 1.1m was the first leak which was confirmed to be off after one year.


Nintendo Switch should sell more 3x these numbers in each region, according to the average life time of a Nintendo console that is 6-7 years old, with some variations.
Being that today sales are so in each region: 13.38 million in North America 9.43 million in Europe 8.29 million in Japan and 4.16 million rest of the world. Multiplying each region by three (keeping in mind that the switch still has another 4 and a half years to 5 years of life, totaling its 6 to 7 years) generates something around:
40.14 million in North America
28.29 million in Europe
24.87 million in Japan
12.48 million in the rest of the world

Totaling something around 105.78 million worldwide, however due to peak sales and declines also at the end of life (in the fifth and sixth year) these numbers can range to 15 million for less or more.

The switch is doing really well, if it keeps going like this for a few years it could beat the ps4 or atleast get very close, but something everyone is not mentioning is the arrival of the new generation, right now the ps4 and Xbox are on the way out and nintendo is getting all the attention, but as soon as the new consoles arrive I wonder if the switch could keep selling so well, a price drop and mini switch could do it but new hardware will probably leave nintendo without triple aaa third party support, plus new stuff creates more hype, it will be very interesting to see what happens.