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Forums - Sales Discussion - NPD: PS4 2016 vs Switch 2019

 

How much more will Switch sell compared to PS4?

Switch will not outsell PS4 7 15.56%
 
500k-1 million 2 4.44%
 
1 million-1.5 million 12 26.67%
 
1.5 million-2 million 6 13.33%
 
2 million-2.5 million 5 11.11%
 
2.5 million-3 million 5 11.11%
 
Over 3 million 8 17.78%
 
Total:45
Ryng on 05 July 2019
Shadow1980 said:

Here's a chart:

The chart say Switch VS 3DS :P



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Chrkeller on 05 July 2019

I am curious to see what happens to sales when Pokemon hits later this year. I think the Switch has a great shot at selling more than the ps4. Not that it matters, both are doing exceptionally well.



TruckOSaurus on 05 July 2019

Love these kind of threads! Looking forward to seeing how it turns out throughout the year.



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Moschegam on 05 July 2019

Nintendo Switch should sell more 3x these numbers in each region, according to the average life time of a Nintendo console that is 6-7 years old, with some variations.
Being that today sales are so in each region: 13.38 million in North America 9.43 million in Europe 8.29 million in Japan and 4.16 million rest of the world. Multiplying each region by three (keeping in mind that the switch still has another 4 and a half years to 5 years of life, totaling its 6 to 7 years) generates something around:
40.14 million in North America
28.29 million in Europe
24.87 million in Japan
12.48 million in the rest of the world

Totaling something around 105.78 million worldwide, however due to peak sales and declines also at the end of life (in the fifth and sixth year) these numbers can range to 15 million for less or more.



gamingsoul on 05 July 2019

The switch is doing really well, if it keeps going like this for a few years it could beat the ps4 or atleast get very close, but something everyone is not mentioning is the arrival of the new generation, right now the ps4 and Xbox are on the way out and nintendo is getting all the attention, but as soon as the new consoles arrive I wonder if the switch could keep selling so well, a price drop and mini switch could do it but new hardware will probably leave nintendo without triple aaa third party support, plus new stuff creates more hype, it will be very interesting to see what happens.



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Moschegam on 05 July 2019

I believe that Playstation 4 sells around 38 to 40 million in North America, until its life cycle ends, around 2021 to 2022.
Playstation 4 to sell 4 million in North America by 2020
3 million in 2021 and 2 million in 2022 and some remnants in 2023.



thismeintiel on 05 July 2019

I'm guessing Switch wins this one. Pokemon should do the trick.



 

Moschegam on 05 July 2019

Looking more critically, the Nintendo Switch is expected to sell somewhere around 6 to 6.5 million this year in North America due to major year-end titles this year.
The Switch is expected to reach close to 20 million units by December 31.
Next year another 6 to 7 million, 2021 plus 5 million and the Switch should hit its 30-33 million before 2022 arrive in North America. Its life cycle is 40 million.

Ljink96 on 05 July 2019

Now this is interesting indeed.



curl-6 on 05 July 2019
gamingsoul said:
The switch is doing really well, if it keeps going like this for a few years it could beat the ps4 or atleast get very close, but something everyone is not mentioning is the arrival of the new generation, right now the ps4 and Xbox are on the way out and nintendo is getting all the attention, but as soon as the new consoles arrive I wonder if the switch could keep selling so well, a price drop and mini switch could do it but new hardware will probably leave nintendo without triple aaa third party support, plus new stuff creates more hype, it will be very interesting to see what happens.

PS5 and Scarlet won't hurt the Switch. They address different niches in the market, rather than directly competing.

Plus it's looking likely the next gen consoles will be $500 USD; if a $300 PS4 at its peak didn't clash with a $300 Switch, a $500 PS5 won't clash with what will by then probably be a $250 or $200 Switch.