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Forums - Gaming Discussion - Prediction: 2020 and/or 2021 will be slow years for console/handheld gaming.

Every game console has to launch, and then pick up steam, when it comes to getting new games. Every game console eventually loses steam. I think 2020 and/or 2021 will be the slowest year/s for new console games/handheld since 1996. Why? For the longest time console and handheld launches have been set apart just enough to make it so at least one system was always hitting its stride, in terms of new games.

2000 should have been a slow year. But Dreamcast's 2000 was an insane year. I think there's 10 new games for Dreamcast that year. 

DC Tony Hawk's Pro Skater 2
Treyarch/Activision, 2000
94.86%
18 Reviews
DC NFL 2K1
Visual Concepts/Sega, 2000
94.50%
21 Reviews
DC Tony Hawk's Pro Skater
Treyarch/Crave, 2000
94.00%
16 Reviews
DC Resident Evil Code: Veronica
NexTech/Capcom, 2000
93.79%
40 Reviews
DC Rayman 2: The Great Escape
Ubisoft Montpellier/Ubisoft, 2000
93.05%
22 Reviews
DC Quake III Arena
Raster/Sega, 2000
92.15%
38 Reviews
DC Jet Grind Radio
Smilebit/Sega, 2000
91.90%
43 Reviews
DC Virtua Tennis
Hitmaker/Sega, 2000
91.37%
33 Reviews
DC Dead or Alive 2
Team Ninja/Tecmo, 2000
91.37%
39 Reviews
DC Skies of Arcadia
Overworks/Sega, 2000
90.59%
40 Reviews
DC Crazy Taxi
Hitmaker/Sega, 2000
90.19%
37 Reviews
DC Marvel vs. Capcom 2
Capcom/Virgin Interactive, 2000
90.15%
29 Reviews
DC NBA 2K1
Visual Concepts/Sega, 2000
89.69%
24 Reviews
DC Test Drive Le Mans
Melbourne House/Sega, 2000
89.50%
24 Reviews
DC Shenmue
Sega AM2/Sega, 2000
89.34%
48 Reviews
DC Grandia II
Game Arts, 2000
88.81%
31 Reviews
DC MDK2
BioWare/Interplay, 2000
88.08%
26 Reviews
DC Legacy of Kain: Soul Reaver
Nixxes Software/Eidos Interactive, 2000
87.94%
26 Reviews
DC Ultimate Fighting Championship
Anchor/Capcom, 2000
87.80%
32 Reviews
DC Power Stone 2
Capcom, 2000
86.99%
29 Reviews
DC Street Fighter Alpha 3
Capcom, 2000
86.48%
24 Reviews
DC Samba de Amigo
Sonic Team/Sega, 2000
86.15%
26 Reviews
DC F355 Challenge: Passione Rossa
Sega/Acclaim, 2000
86.13%
30 Reviews
DC ChuChu Rocket!
Sonic Team/Sega, 2000
85.62%
34 Reviews
DC Wacky Races
Infogrames Sheffield/Infogrames, 2000
84.29%
24 Reviews
DC Space Channel 5
UGA/Sega, 2000
84.22%
35 Reviews
DC San Francisco Rush 2049
Midway, 2000
83.44%
25 Reviews
DC Test Drive V-Rally
Eden Studios/Infogrames, 2000
82.32%
23 Reviews
DC Mr. Driller
Namco, 2000
82.08%
12 Reviews
DC NFL Blitz 2001
Avalanche Software/Midway, 2000
81.33%
19 Reviews
DC Resident Evil 3: Nemesis
Capcom, 2000
81.11%
19 Reviews
DC Ecco the Dolphin: Defender of the Future
Appaloosa Interactive/Sega, 2000
81.04%
29 Reviews
DC Tokyo Xtreme Racer 2
Genki, 2000
81.00%
27 Reviews
DC Seaman
Vivarium, 2000
80.91%
32 Reviews
DC Sega GT
TOSE/Sega, 2000
80.66%
36 Reviews
DC Street Fighter III: 3rd Strike
Capcom, 2000
80.61%
16 Reviews
DC Capcom vs. SNK
Capcom, 2000
80.60%

2006 should have seen new game releases slow down. GameCube was all but dead. Xbox was slowing down. DS and PS2 provided a lot of games to fill the gap. 

DS New Super Mario Bros.
Nintendo, 2006
89.07%
74 Reviews
DS Elite Beat Agents
iNiS/Nintendo, 2006
88.33%
52 Reviews
DS Tetris DS
Nintendo, 2006
87.10%
59 Reviews
DS Castlevania: Portrait of Ruin
Konami, 2006
84.98%
63 Reviews
DS Metroid Prime: Hunters
Nintendo Software Technology/Nintendo, 2006
83.95%
66 Reviews
DS Clubhouse Games
Agenda/Nintendo, 2006
82.98%
32 Reviews
DS Dragon Quest Heroes: Rocket Slime
TOSE/Square Enix, 2006
82.36%
43 Reviews
DS Nintendogs: Dalmatian & Friends
Nintendo, 2006
81.31%
8 Reviews
DS Yoshi's Island DS
Artoon/Nintendo, 2006

81.15%
48 Reviews

PS2 Okami
Clover Studio/Capcom, 2006
92.65%
73 Reviews
PS2 Guitar Hero II
Harmonix Music Systems/RedOctane, 2006
92.07%
72 Reviews
PS2 Final Fantasy XII
Square Enix, 2006
90.77%
71 Reviews
PS2 World Soccer Winning Eleven 9
Konami, 2006
88.25%
36 Reviews
PS2 Devil May Cry 3: Special Edition
Capcom, 2006
88.00%
33 Reviews
PS2 Bully
Rockstar Vancouver/Rockstar Games, 2006
87.48%
78 Reviews
PS2 NCAA Football 07
EA Sports, 2006
87.47%
18 Reviews
PS2 Kingdom Hearts II
Square Enix, 2006
87.46%
72 Reviews
PS2 Final Fantasy XI: Treasures of Aht Urhgan
Square Enix, 2006
87.00%
6 Reviews
PS2 Midnight Club 3: DUB Edition Remix
Rockstar San Diego/Rockstar Games, 2006
85.57%
21 Reviews
PS2 Disgaea 2: Cursed Memories
Nippon Ichi Software, 2006
85.33%
65 Reviews
PS2 LEGO Star Wars II: The Original Trilogy
Traveller's Tales/LucasArts, 2006
85.19%
34 Reviews
PS2 TOCA Race Driver 3
Codemasters, 2006
84.50%
31 Reviews
PS2 Madden NFL 07
EA Sports, 2006
84.48%
24 Reviews
PS2 Tom Clancy's Splinter Cell Double Agent
Ubisoft Montreal/Ubisoft, 2006
84.40%
15 Reviews
PS2 Valkyrie Profile 2: Silmeria
Tri-Ace/Square Enix, 2006
84.35%
49 Reviews
PS2 Fight Night Round 3
EA Chicago/EA Sports, 2006
83.61%
36 Reviews
PS2 MLB 06: The Show
SCEA San Diego Studios/SCEA, 2006
82.90%
30 Reviews
PS2 Xenosaga Episode III: Also sprach Zarathustra
Monolith Soft/Namco, 2006
82.67%
33 Reviews
PS2 Hitman: Blood Money
Io Interactive/Eidos Interactive, 2006
82.51%
41 Reviews
PS2 NBA 2K7
Visual Concepts/2K Sports, 2006
82.50%
12 Reviews
PS2 Tomb Raider: Legend
Crystal Dynamics/Eidos Interactive, 2006
82.22%
44 Reviews
PS2 Call of Duty 3
Treyarch/Activision, 2006
82.17%
18 Reviews
PS2 Onimusha: Dawn of Dreams
Capcom, 2006
81.82%
53 Reviews
PS2 Marvel: Ultimate Alliance
Raven Software/Activision, 2006
81.65%
30 Reviews
PS2 FIFA 07 Soccer
Team Fusion/EA Sports, 2006
81.40%
27 Reviews
PS2 Sega Genesis Collection
Digital Eclipse/Sega, 2006
81.09%
33 Reviews
PS2 Street Fighter Alpha Anthology
Capcom, 2006
80.73%
55 Reviews
PS2 OutRun 2006: Coast 2 Coast
Sumo Digital/Sega, 2006
80.03%
43 Reviews

2013 should have been a slow year, but 3DS was on fire. 

3DS Fire Emblem: Awakening
Intelligent Systems/Nintendo, 2013
92.52%
52 Reviews
3DS The Legend of Zelda: A Link Between Worlds
Nintendo, 2013
90.55%
55 Reviews
3DS Pokemon Y
Game Freak/Nintendo, 2013
87.89%
45 Reviews
3DS Pokemon X
Game Freak/Nintendo, 2013
87.26%
45 Reviews
3DS Animal Crossing: New Leaf
Nintendo, 2013
86.93%
45 Reviews
3DS Luigi's Mansion: Dark Moon
Next Level Games/Nintendo, 2013
85.86%
44 Reviews
3DS Etrian Odyssey IV: Legends of the Titan
Atlus, 2013
85.00%
34 Reviews
3DS Shin Megami Tensei IV
Atlus, 2013
84.03%
37 Reviews
3DS Donkey Kong Country Returns 3D
Monster Games Inc./Nintendo, 2013
83.51%
41 Reviews
3DS SteamWorld Dig
Image & Form, 2013
83.05%
20 Reviews
3DS Gunman Clive
Horberg Productions, 2013
82.91%
11 Reviews
3DS Phoenix Wright: Ace Attorney - Dual Destinies
Capcom, 2013
82.43%
44 Reviews
3DS Etrian Odyssey Untold: The Millennium Girl
Atlus, 2013
81.39%
31 Reviews
3DS Mario & Luigi: Dream Team
Alphadream Corporation/Nintendo, 2013
80.65%
46 Reviews
3DS Monster Hunter 3 Ultimate
Capcom, 2013
80.13%
15 Reviews

But now we are going into 2020. Nintendo pretty much gave everything they had for this year, so 2020 may be a bit of a slow year for them, the same way it was slow in 2018. 

There's no handhelds, or 4th console hanging around to buff up the numbers anymore. 

PS4 is selling very well, but it isn't the 150 million juggernaut that was the PS2. So I doubt it will get as much 3rd party support as the PS2 got in it's final years. 



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Cerebralbore101 said:

Every game console has to launch, and then pick up steam, when it comes to getting new games. Every game console eventually loses steam. I think 2020 and/or 2021 will be the slowest year/s for new console games/handheld since 1996. Why? For the longest time console and handheld launches have been set apart just enough to make it so at least one system was always hitting its stride, in terms of new games.


But now we are going into 2020. Nintendo pretty much gave everything they had for this year, so 2020 may be a bit of a slow year for them, the same way it was slow in 2018. 

There's no handhelds, or 4th console hanging around to buff up the numbers anymore. 

PS4 is selling very well, but it isn't the 150 million juggernaut that was the PS2. So I doubt it will get as much 3rd party support as the PS2 got in it's final years. 

I'm pretty sure they didn't, far from it. They still have tons of franchises that didn't release a game on the Switch, and several which still can have another title on the Switch, like a Mario Kart 9 or a Paper Mario, for instance.



Meh. PS5/XB2 will be easy enough to develop for after the PS4/XBO. Backwards compatibility for both will help also. Expect the transition to be a lot smoother than PS2 to PS3 and PS3 to PS4.



Barkley said:
Meh. PS5/XB2 will be easy enough to develop for after the PS4/XBO. Backwards compatibility for both will help also. Expect the transition to be a lot smoother than PS2 to PS3 and PS3 to PS4.

^ this.

I'm also expecting a much smoother transition from PS4->PS5, than from PS3->PS4.
Thats one of the benefits of x86 and sticking with very simular designs in cpu+gpu, even the unified memory ect.

Not to mention there will be backwards coompatability, which will ease the transition periode at the start of the gen abit.



It looks to me like those will be great year, so long as the new systems launch next year, as planned. We already know about a bunch of big games that are likely to hit in that timeframe.

If something happened that resulted in a delay until 2021 for new console launches, which also meant that the big launch games were delayed, then the OP could be correct. But, that's super highly unlikely.



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Considering that 2020 is the first year where certain former 3DS developers (both first and third party) will put out Switch games, the OP's logic falls flat. 2020 is also the year where developers who put out Switch games in 2017 or the first half of 2018 can have their next game ready. Then you have indie developers whose output isn't tied to console generations because they simply support what's out there.

PlayStation and Xbox will go through a transition, but even if that somehow gets completely botched, there will still be plenty of great games released because Switch is hitting its stride.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Gamers Club

Barkley said:
Meh. PS5/XB2 will be easy enough to develop for after the PS4/XBO. Backwards compatibility for both will help also. Expect the transition to be a lot smoother than PS2 to PS3 and PS3 to PS4.

JRPGfan said:
Barkley said:
Meh. PS5/XB2 will be easy enough to develop for after the PS4/XBO. Backwards compatibility for both will help also. Expect the transition to be a lot smoother than PS2 to PS3 and PS3 to PS4.

^ this.

I'm also expecting a much smoother transition from PS4->PS5, than from PS3->PS4.
Thats one of the benefits of x86 and sticking with very simular designs in cpu+gpu, even the unified memory ect.

Not to mention there will be backwards coompatability, which will ease the transition periode at the start of the gen abit.

I agree with X86 having potential to speed the next generation's output of games up. But how would backwards compatibility increase the output of games for PS5/XB2?  

RolStoppable said:
Considering that 2020 is the first year where certain former 3DS developers (both first and third party) will put out Switch games, the OP's logic falls flat. 2020 is also the year where developers who put out Switch games in 2017 or the first half of 2018 can have their next game ready. Then you have indie developers whose output isn't tied to console generations because they simply support what's out there.

PlayStation and Xbox will go through a transition, but even if that somehow gets completely botched, there will still be plenty of great games released because Switch is hitting its stride.

What are these 3DS devs? SMTV has gone dark for a long time, and Atlus' last Nintendo console game (Tokyo Mirage Sessions) was a very late gen release. All I can think of for 2020 3DS devs would be YW4, but that's already out in Japan. I give it 75% odds that BotW2 releases in 2020. But what else is there? Nothing has really been announced yet. 

If indie devs went ahead and kept up the same pace it wouldn't save 2020 from having fewer games overall. They'd have to increase their output by quite a bit in order to keep the games flowing in an absence of larger devs. I'm not sure how much the indie output has grown over the years though. For all I know, they are still growing by leaps and bounds. I haven't bothered to look into it yet. Pinning down release dates for indie games is a bit of a hassle. You have to find out which version of the game launched first, vs just compiling a list on gamerankings for non-Indie games. I guess I'll do the research on that later today though. 



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Cerebralbore101 said:
RolStoppable said:
Considering that 2020 is the first year where certain former 3DS developers (both first and third party) will put out Switch games, the OP's logic falls flat. 2020 is also the year where developers who put out Switch games in 2017 or the first half of 2018 can have their next game ready. Then you have indie developers whose output isn't tied to console generations because they simply support what's out there.

PlayStation and Xbox will go through a transition, but even if that somehow gets completely botched, there will still be plenty of great games released because Switch is hitting its stride.

What are these 3DS devs? SMTV has gone dark for a long time, and Atlus' last Nintendo console game (Tokyo Mirage Sessions) was a very late gen release. All I can think of for 2020 3DS devs would be YW4, but that's already out in Japan. I give it 75% odds that BotW2 releases in 2020. But what else is there? Nothing has really been announced yet. 

If indie devs went ahead and kept up the same pace it wouldn't save 2020 from having fewer games overall. They'd have to increase their output by quite a bit in order to keep the games flowing in an absence of larger devs. I'm not sure how much the indie output has grown over the years though. For all I know, they are still growing by leaps and bounds. I haven't bothered to look into it yet. Pinning down release dates for indie games is a bit of a hassle. You have to find out which version of the game launched first, vs just compiling a list on gamerankings for non-Indie games. I guess I'll do the research on that later today though. 

Alphadreams (Mario & Luigi) and Atlus's Etrian Odyssey teams (EO Nexus and Persona Q2 were originally released in 2018) are obvious examples. Nintendo's internal teams that released games in 2017 (Breath of the Wild, MK8D/ARMS, Splatoon 2 and Super Mario Odyssey) will have had three years of development for 2020 titles, so the second wave of major Switch titles is drawing closer. Of course Nintendo will have more games than just Animal Crossing and BotW2 to release in 2020, but they have been in no hurry to make announcements because the rest of 2019 is packed. Bayonetta scores well with critics and the third game should be coming in 2020.

Given that it took most third parties until early 2018 to realize that Switch is a winner, more content from Japanese third parties can be expected in 2020. It's common that games get announced by them only several months before release, so not knowing at this point in time doesn't rule out that 2020 will be a good year.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Gamers Club

Plausible. The console market is cyclical, after all, though the peaks and troughs are getting less pronounced, especially if you take Nintendo out of the equation.

The PS4 and XBO are already down YoY, enough to where the Switch is so far not making up for it to keep the U.S. console market as a whole from being down. They are almost certainly going to decline even more next year as the launch of the PS5 and Scarlett eat into their sales, and the Switch could very well decline, too. We may not see combined PS+Xbox console sales start to rebound until 2022, and the console market as a whole might not grow again until the Switch's successor is released, which may not be until 2023.

As for the market for dedicated handhelds, that's pretty much over and done with once the 3DS is discontinued, that is unless Nintendo is planning a handheld-only version of the Switch.



RolStoppable said:
Cerebralbore101 said:

What are these 3DS devs? SMTV has gone dark for a long time, and Atlus' last Nintendo console game (Tokyo Mirage Sessions) was a very late gen release. All I can think of for 2020 3DS devs would be YW4, but that's already out in Japan. I give it 75% odds that BotW2 releases in 2020. But what else is there? Nothing has really been announced yet. 

If indie devs went ahead and kept up the same pace it wouldn't save 2020 from having fewer games overall. They'd have to increase their output by quite a bit in order to keep the games flowing in an absence of larger devs. I'm not sure how much the indie output has grown over the years though. For all I know, they are still growing by leaps and bounds. I haven't bothered to look into it yet. Pinning down release dates for indie games is a bit of a hassle. You have to find out which version of the game launched first, vs just compiling a list on gamerankings for non-Indie games. I guess I'll do the research on that later today though. 

Alphadreams (Mario & Luigi) and Atlus's Etrian Odyssey teams (EO Nexus and Persona Q2 were originally released in 2018) are obvious examples. Nintendo's internal teams that released games in 2017 (Breath of the Wild, MK8D/ARMS, Splatoon 2 and Super Mario Odyssey) will have had three years of development for 2020 titles, so the second wave of major Switch titles is drawing closer. Of course Nintendo will have more games than just Animal Crossing and BotW2 to release in 2020, but they have been in no hurry to make announcements because the rest of 2019 is packed. Bayonetta scores well with critics and the third game should be coming in 2020.

Given that it took most third parties until early 2018 to realize that Switch is a winner, more content from Japanese third parties can be expected in 2020. It's common that games get announced by them only several months before release, so not knowing at this point in time doesn't rule out that 2020 will be a good year.

Alphadream has kind of gotten stale over the years. Their last critical hit that wasn't a remake was Dream Team. 

If Atlus were to provide the same support for Switch that they provided to the 3DS, it would easily make Switch the greatest console of all time IMO. 

I am worried about whether or not Atlus' EO Team, and especially Alphadream are up to the challenge to making full fledged console style games. To be honest I'm even getting a little nervious about the new Fire Emblem, and Poke'mon. 

Pretty sure the Splatoon 2 team is working on Animal Crossing: New Horizons. Right now, I'm looking at 2020 for the Switch, and seeing Bayonetta 3, 75% odds of BotW2, Yokai Watch 4, and New Horizons. If BotW2 gets pushed to 2020, and nothing else new got put out there, then it would be a repeat of 2018, as far as I'm concerned. 

But yeah, Nintendo does like to wait until 6 months or less to even announce stuff. I definitely see the potential for a massive 2020 on Switch. But I have to remember that this is Nintendo we are talking about. They've always ran out of gas around year 3 or 4 of a console, or handheld's life cycle. Even if we were to stack and align both libraries of WiiU/3DS together, we would see a slowdown in 1st/2nd party games around the 3rd year. 

For Example: 3DS' 3rd year was 2014. Nintendo put out Kirby: Triple Deluxe, Pokemon ORAS, and Smash 4 on 3DS. Wii U's 3rd year was mostly 2015. We got Splatoon, Mario Maker, and Xenoblade X. Poke'mon ORAS was a remake. So the combined 1st party output for the 3rd year of both systems aligned would be Smash 4, Kirby, Splatoon, Mario Maker, and Xenoblade. 

Compare that to a combined 2nd year output of 3DS/WiiU...

Bayonetta 2, Tropical Freeze, Captian Toad, Mario Kart 8, Dream Team, Pokemon X/Y, Animal Crossing New Leaf, Luigi's Mansion 2, A Link Between Worlds, and Fire Emblem: Awakening. 

And that's if we are going to choose to be generous and give Smash 4 to the 3rd year lineup. If we take Smash 4, and say it's a Wii U game, then it belongs in the 2nd year catagory, which makes it even more lopsided. 

If you look at the 2nd year list of the combined WiiU/3DS 1st/2nd party output it looks really similar to 2019. I believe that we are getting that epic 2nd year dump in 2019, the same as if WiiU/3DS were the same system in in their 2nd year. I'm skeptical about 3rd parties ability to move from 3DS to Switch. But again, anything is possible. This is uncharted territory in a lot of ways, and previous years' analysis can only go so far. 



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