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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - 2020: The peek of the Switch?

trent44 on 13 June 2019
RolStoppable said:
I'll just ignore the original post because of its questionable logic and instead focus on the question the thread is asking.

2020 can be expected to be better than 2019 because of the effects of a console revision and a price reduction lasting through the whole year, but that doesn't mean 2020 will be the peak year. Aside from people commonly forgetting that Switch's stake in the handheld market can't be fully realized until price has come down to an appropriate level (a sub-200 dollar Switch might not be available before 2021), another very important factor is that Nintendo has now only one console which changes things significantly.

Previously, Nintendo's top development teams had to go back and forth between two consoles to boost their sales which resulted in a loss of momentum for both consoles at different times. Breath of the Wild 2 is just the beginning of hammering the point home that one console is much easier to support. The teams that worked on MK8D/ARMS, Splatoon 2 and Super Mario Odyssey also have another Switch game in the pipeline, so there won't be a sudden shortage of system sellers like on previous Nintendo consoles, with the exception being the NES because that too was Nintendo's only console at the time.

There are also a multitude of 3DS game developers, both first and third party, who have been slow to transition. Switch will have a very robust software lineup for the next few years, so that creates a very appealing console in conjunction with the right price. The timing of revisions and price reductions is still up in the air and as long as Switch sells as well as it does (there's already growth in year 3 despite neither a revision or price cut), Nintendo can postpone those things and notably extend Switch's lifecycle in the process. 2019 won't be Switch's peak year and 2020 might not be it either.

Whichever year is the peak year is really whatever, more pertinent to the Nintendo Switch will be its tail.

The potential for a large second wave of first party software could give the hardware some much better legs this time around.

Breath of the Wild 2, Metroid Prime 4, etc. certainly indicates at least potential for the beginning of that second software wave.

Revisions, price cuts, software... if things play out well, the long term hardware/software sales could certainly be quite bountiful.



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DonFerrari on 13 June 2019

I'm surprised people are thinking mid-tier games will be a reason for Switch to peak in 2020.

@fatslob there are A and AA games at minimum between Indie and AAA. On my account most of Nintendo games would be AA, with Zelda and Mario getting AAA budget, perhaps Smash and Mario Kart as well.



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xMetroid on 13 June 2019
Soundwave said:
2020's focus also, hate to say it in the gaming world will be the PS5/XB2 launches, they're the new systems, they will get the lion's share of attention. Particularly the PS5 as it is the successor to the market leading platform.

Everything can go south, the PS2 was doing better than the PS4 and had a bigger domination yet the PS3 flopped at launch.

Locals switch their preferences every other day. Call of duty was shit 2 years ago and battlefield 5 was the shit then the year or 2 idk the roles reversed.

Switch is getting more momentum every year. It is getting incredible third party support this year and as we still have many years of support for PS4/Xbox One, Switch will still be getting some games.

Also, let's not act like Nintendo won't do anything to face the release of the new consoles. They don't show games too in advance anymore, metroid was special cause it was to reassure fans that a main title was in developpement with the announcement of a remake on 3DS and after federation force, so everything is pointing out the they will have Breath of the wild sequel ready for the competition and probably a Mario title and Metroid Prime 4/Bayonetta 3 not too after. Switch still doesn't have a big price cut or any at all in most regions, and let's not count out a new model. 



Agente42 on 13 June 2019
kazuyamishima said:
2019 peak year.

At the beginning of this year, we saw high switch sales due to the smash bros effect.

There will be no smash bros at the end of this year.

S Tier: 2D AAA Mario, New Mario Kart, Sports Arcade Motion Games* ( 20+ - 40 Million Range)

A Tier: Smash Bros., Pokemon New, 3d AAA Mario, Zelda classics(1, Ocarina) or BOTW formula, Animal Crossing ( 10+ - 20 Million Range)

B Tier: Kirby, Mario Sports( Sonic Olympics Games too), Donkey Kong 2d and 3d AAA, Mario Party, Zelda remakes, Splatoon, Pokemon Remakes ( 4+M - 10 Million Range)

C Tier: Metroid, Arms, New Ideas, 3d Mascot ( not Mario, Zelda or DK), Fire Emblem, Mario & Luigi RPGs, Mario vs Donkey Kong, Tomodachi Life,  Yoshi Games, Pokemon Spin Off (2M - 4 Millions Range)

D Tier: Kid Icarus, Rhythm Heaven series, Chibi Robo series, Osu no Quedan series, Golden Sun, Xenoblade, Other Tactics series, Race arcade Series ( not Mario Kart). ( 1M+ -2 Millions Range).



Wyrdness on 13 June 2019
fatslob-:O said:

Their AAA games are the only ones that have any real system selling power to begin with ... 

False as the non AAA titles in the first party have shown to have equal or greater system selling power than the titles that can be considered AAA, for example the likes of Pokemon, Tomodachi, Mario Kart and Animal Crossing for example aren't AAA but consistently shift more hardware than other first party games. Then we have the likes of Fire Emblem which has significant system selling power in Japan so this claim here is untrue.



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MasonADC on 13 June 2019

2D Mario, Donkey Kong, Casual Sports titles, and new ips all have potential to have strong selling power.



The_Liquid_Laser on 13 June 2019

There is no way 2019 will be peak year for Switch.  It's still in caterpillar mode, but with the software just announced it is ready to come out and start being a butterfly soon.  Switch has an insanely good 1st party lineup this year.  It's going to sell over 20m this year, but there are still some things that are going to make later years sell even more (peak 2020 or 2021).

1) Nintendo is only projecting 18m this fiscal year, even though there software is obviously a lot better than last year's.  They are going to be short supplied during holidays this year and probably for a few months afterward.  This alone is going to keep 2019 from being the peak year, but there are still other factors.

2) Third party games are just getting started and are going to ramp up.  Switch is going to keep getting unique exclusives: MUA3, Dark Crystal Tactics, Astral Chain, Trials of Mana, etc....  Those games are just a small taste of what is to come.  Also Witcher 3 is a 32GB cart.  Expect more bigger games to get ported over like this.  The third party flood of games is still coming.

3) Still no price cut or hardware revision yet.  There are a ton of handheld gamers still not willing to shell out $300.  These will come over when the price gets low enough.

4) PS5 and Scarlett are going to give Switch a sales boost.  Most gamers are a lot more price conscious than the people on this board (or at least their parents are).  Once they see the choice between a $500 console with a few games and a $200-$300 Switch with a ton of games, then they will buy a Switch.  Switch doesn't have this benefit yet, because during the holidays PS4 and XB1 are cheaper and have the bigger library.  Once PS5 and Scarlett release, then this advantage will go to the Switch.

5) Expect Nintendo to keep making more first party games.  Since all of their resources are on one console they will both revive old franchises and develop new IP.  Switch is barely over the 2 year mark and still has a ton more first party games to release.  Believe it.


Overall, Switch is just getting started.  It has a lot more power cards to play and Sony and Microsoft are planning to release powerful, pricey, systems that are going to struggle until they get a price cut.  People have still not realized that Switch is still in its slow phase.  Expect it to take off in a few months and not come down again for several years.



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Switch Will Be #1 All Time
Zelda Will Outsell Mario (Achieved)
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TheMisterManGuy on 13 June 2019
The_Liquid_Laser said:

There is no way 2019 will be peak year for Switch.  It's still in caterpillar mode, but with the software just announced it is ready to come out and start being a butterfly soon.  Switch has an insanely good 1st party lineup this year.  It's going to sell over 20m this year, but there are still some things that are going to make later years sell even more (peak 2020 or 2021).

1) Nintendo is only projecting 18m this fiscal year, even though there software is obviously a lot better than last year's.  They are going to be short supplied during holidays this year and probably for a few months afterward.  This alone is going to keep 2019 from being the peak year, but there are still other factors.

2) Third party games are just getting started and are going to ramp up.  Switch is going to keep getting unique exclusives: MUA3, Dark Crystal Tactics, Astral Chain, Trials of Mana, etc....  Those games are just a small taste of what is to come.  Also Witcher 3 is a 32GB cart.  Expect more bigger games to get ported over like this.  The third party flood of games is still coming.

3) Still no price cut or hardware revision yet.  There are a ton of handheld gamers still not willing to shell out $300.  These will come over when the price gets low enough.

4) PS5 and Scarlett are going to give Switch a sales boost.  Most gamers are a lot more price conscious than the people on this board (or at least their parents are).  Once they see the choice between a $500 console with a few games and a $200-$300 Switch with a ton of games, then they will buy a Switch.  Switch doesn't have this benefit yet, because during the holidays PS4 and XB1 are cheaper and have the bigger library.  Once PS5 and Scarlett release, then this advantage will go to the Switch.

5) Expect Nintendo to keep making more first party games.  Since all of their resources are on one console they will both revive old franchises and develop new IP.  Switch is barely over the 2 year mark and still has a ton more first party games to release.  Believe it.


Overall, Switch is just getting started.  It has a lot more power cards to play and Sony and Microsoft are planning to release powerful, pricey, systems that are going to struggle until they get a price cut.  People have still not realized that Switch is still in its slow phase.  Expect it to take off in a few months and not come down again for several years.

Quick correction, Astral Chain and Marvel UA3 are both first party.



Cerebralbore101 on 13 June 2019

Yes, Switch will peak in 2020, but only because they are about to have the most insane games lineup they have ever had for a single year, on a single console. Mario Maker 2, and Poke'mon will both sell over 10 million copies. Astral Chain, Luigi's Mansion 3, Link's Awakening, Daemon X Machina, and Fire Emblem all have 1 million+ seller potential.

Honestly, I think there will be a serious Switch shortage this holiday season. Sales will overflow into 2020, because of all the people in 2019 that desperately wanted a Switch, but couldn't find one in the wild.



The_Liquid_Laser on 13 June 2019
TheMisterManGuy said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:

There is no way 2019 will be peak year for Switch.  It's still in caterpillar mode, but with the software just announced it is ready to come out and start being a butterfly soon.  Switch has an insanely good 1st party lineup this year.  It's going to sell over 20m this year, but there are still some things that are going to make later years sell even more (peak 2020 or 2021).

1) Nintendo is only projecting 18m this fiscal year, even though there software is obviously a lot better than last year's.  They are going to be short supplied during holidays this year and probably for a few months afterward.  This alone is going to keep 2019 from being the peak year, but there are still other factors.

2) Third party games are just getting started and are going to ramp up.  Switch is going to keep getting unique exclusives: MUA3, Dark Crystal Tactics, Astral Chain, Trials of Mana, etc....  Those games are just a small taste of what is to come.  Also Witcher 3 is a 32GB cart.  Expect more bigger games to get ported over like this.  The third party flood of games is still coming.

3) Still no price cut or hardware revision yet.  There are a ton of handheld gamers still not willing to shell out $300.  These will come over when the price gets low enough.

4) PS5 and Scarlett are going to give Switch a sales boost.  Most gamers are a lot more price conscious than the people on this board (or at least their parents are).  Once they see the choice between a $500 console with a few games and a $200-$300 Switch with a ton of games, then they will buy a Switch.  Switch doesn't have this benefit yet, because during the holidays PS4 and XB1 are cheaper and have the bigger library.  Once PS5 and Scarlett release, then this advantage will go to the Switch.

5) Expect Nintendo to keep making more first party games.  Since all of their resources are on one console they will both revive old franchises and develop new IP.  Switch is barely over the 2 year mark and still has a ton more first party games to release.  Believe it.


Overall, Switch is just getting started.  It has a lot more power cards to play and Sony and Microsoft are planning to release powerful, pricey, systems that are going to struggle until they get a price cut.  People have still not realized that Switch is still in its slow phase.  Expect it to take off in a few months and not come down again for several years.

Quick correction, Astral Chain and Marvel UA3 are both first party.

Hmm...not sure if I'm ready to consider Team Ninja and Platinum Games as first party.  Obviously, Nintendo had a role in these games being exclusives, but I kind of put them in the same category as Octopath Traveler.



curl-6 bet me that PS5 + X|S sales would reach 56m before year end 2023 and he was right.
My Bet With curl-6

My Threads:
Master Thread, Game of the Year/Decade
Switch Will Be #1 All Time
Zelda Will Outsell Mario (Achieved)
How Much Will MH Rise sell?
My Bet With Metallox