While I think there's a good case to be made that he's done something impeachable, unlike the Bill Clinton situation he hasn't been charged with a crime. With Clinton it was pretty cut and dry: He lied under oath in a deposition to a civil suit, so the perjury charge was easy to levy against him. The Mueller report indicates but doesn't flat-out state categorically that Trump likewise committed a criminal act (obstruction of justice), but the whole situation is still... complicated... from a legal standpoint. While Clinton committed his crime out in the open where it was obvious to all, Trump's potential crimes are far more shady in nature. It seems like it's always the simple, obvious stuff that gets you in trouble, not the machinations done away from prying eyes. If Trump lied in court about getting a BJ, the impeachment trial would have already happened. As with Clinton, Trump is likewise unlikely be convicted of anything even if he is impeached, and the trial is unlikely to even hurt him. It could even help him as the Democrats would be consumed with the proceedings.
Last edited by Shadow1980 - on 30 May 2019
The best thing the Dems could do is just wait it out. Election Day is only 17 months away. Trump is a very vulnerable president, and he's clearly on the defensive. His approval ratings are still in the toilet, and as I've probably pointed out in other threads no sitting president has been re-elected while having a net negative approval rating. He's severely underwater in several traditionally blue states he (barely) won in 2016, namely Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. The 2018 midterms also seemed to solidify the notion that the Democrats quickly rebuilt the "Blue Wall." Arizona and Georgia will likely also be in play after years of being solid GOP strongholds. Trump is quite simply a uniquely unpopular and divisive president, unable to appeal to many Americans outside of the Republican base, and seemingly unable to get the running average of his approval ratings out of the low 40s (his disapproval ratings likewise are stable at the low to mid 50s, also a bad metric for him).
The Democrats need to worry first and foremost about winning the 2020 elections (including retaking the Senate and holding the House), and if they play their cards right they should be able to defeat him, probably by a good margin, but they have to put in the effort by campaigning hard in the Midwest and putting Trump on the defensive in Arizona, Georgia, and even some maybe-not-quite-as-solidly-red states like Texas if resources allow for it. Defeating Trump will serve the same purpose of getting him out of the White House, with the added humiliation of him losing the election, which would deliver a crushing bruise to his ego. Seeing that justice is served (assuming Trump is indeed guilty of obstruction, which seems highly probable) can come after he goes back to civilian life, without all the complications of an impeachment proceeding.