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Forums - Sales Discussion - Cleaning old predictions out of my sig

I used my signature to keep track of some predictions I thought were interesting in one way or another. Time to clean up a bit and look how well it held up:

  • froster (March 2017): "Switch sales will end somewhere between 15 and 25 million. Never more. Because the technology is from the beginning too weak." →Currently at 33.6M. The whole thread holds up a bit better.
  • Predict how much the Switch will sell (thread, January 2017): Switch sold past the first three poll options so far, which combines 32% of the votes. Currently the Switch is in the 30M-40M bracket, which voted 15% for. At this point it seems unlikely the Switch sells less than 50% lifetime, which would mean 60% voted too low.
  • another thread from April 2017: leo-j started the thread in the assumption the Switch would fail badly, but the majority of voters disagreed and voted for way more than the above (which ended at 30%). Yay, most got it right. As usual, Rol got wise insight.
  • Monster Hunter World blew past all expectations of June 2017. Currently it has more than 11 million shipped copies, which is more than the highest option I gave (>10M). Only 5% got it right. I myself voted 3M-4M. Let's come the tasty crows. Well, at least I expected more out of the title than the majority of poll-voters.
  • God of War > Breath of the Wild (January 2018): Well, God of War is listed in VGC (with the tracking ending 2018) at 6.15M, BotW on Switch alone with 9.46M. I think we can call it. The thread overall was about GoW vs. Labo - the forum (including me) really expected Labo might explode, didn't we.
  • Switch vs. Xbone in the US. This still will need time to see how it turns out.

So, most of these are decided by now. So this summarize will help me to finish that up and release the links from my sig.



3DS-FC: 4511-1768-7903 (Mii-Name: Mnementh), Nintendo-Network-ID: Mnementh, Switch: SW-7706-3819-9381 (Mnementh)

my greatest games: 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020

10 years greatest game event!

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The only one of these I took part in was the 'Predict how much the Switch will sell' thread, I think.
Looks like I seriously lowballed the Switch, I voted 40-50 million.
What can I say? The WiiU badly conditioned me to expect lower sales, even for a sucessful system.



SuperNova said:
The only one of these I took part in was the 'Predict how much the Switch will sell' thread, I think.
Looks like I seriously lowballed the Switch, I voted 40-50 million.
What can I say? The WiiU badly conditioned me to expect lower sales, even for a sucessful system.

Well, I wasn't much better, voted 50-60 million. Nowadays I think differently, but that's why these are predictions. So we get our share of juicy crows.



3DS-FC: 4511-1768-7903 (Mii-Name: Mnementh), Nintendo-Network-ID: Mnementh, Switch: SW-7706-3819-9381 (Mnementh)

my greatest games: 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020

10 years greatest game event!

Mnementh said:

I used my signature to keep track of some predictions I thought were interesting in one way or another. Time to clean up a bit and look how well it held up:

  • Predict how much the Switch will sell (thread, January 2017): Switch sold past the first three poll options so far, which combines 32% of the votes. Currently the Switch is in the 30M-40M bracket, which voted 15% for. At this point it seems unlikely the Switch sells less than 50% lifetime, which would mean 60% voted too low.
  • another thread from April 2017: leo-j started the thread in the assumption the Switch would fail badly, but the majority of voters disagreed and voted for way more than the above (which ended at 30%). Yay, most got it right. As usual, Rol got wise insight.
  • Monster Hunter World blew past all expectations of June 2017. Currently it has more than 11 million shipped copies, which is more than the highest option I gave (>10M). Only 5% got it right. I myself voted 3M-4M. Let's come the tasty crows. Well, at least I expected more out of the title than the majority of poll-voters.

So, most of these are decided by now. So this summarize will help me to finish that up and release the links from my sig.

Intresting :)

I didnt assume Switch would sell more than 60m, back then in that thread (predict how much the switch will sell).

Switch lifetime figures? "Way more than the above" (other options where all below 30m).

I only thought Monster Hunter World would do like 4m  (; _ ;)  (guess I wasnt optimistic enough)

"I myself voted 3M-4M. Let's come the tasty crows."

Atleast I wasnt alone lol.
Alot of people where really negative about it being on a non nintendo platform.... I always assumed it would do "okay".
But yeah, I need to eat crow for that.

Same with my prediction of Switch only selling 60m..... needless to say I think it ll do more now.

Last edited by JRPGfan - on 05 May 2019

I voted 70-80 million... Thankfully. If Nintendo replaces the Switch after 5 years of life, I've got a good chance.



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I said the Switch will fail, with "fail" meaning selling less than Wii U and 3DS combined. Not too worried yet, but so far it certainly did better than I hoped or expected.



If you demand respect or gratitude for your volunteer work, you're doing volunteering wrong.

vivster said:

I said the Switch will fail, with "fail" meaning selling less than Wii U and 3DS combined. Not too worried yet, but so far it certainly did better than I hoped or expected.

That's quite the understatement.



I was another in the 40-50 million range in the Switch prediction poll. Kinda funny that most of the votes cast were in the 3 groups within the 10-40 million range.



Chinese food for breakfast

 

My 100M+ choices in the polls are still on track.
rn
rnBut always funny to reread some of those old predictions.