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Forums - Sales Discussion - Global Hardware 6 April 2019

Jumpin on 22 April 2019

Nintendo now establishes dominance, and it has not yet brought out its most devastating guns. Nintendo’s wrath will be terrible, its retribution swift. The battle for fiscal 2019 is over. The battle for fiscal 2020 has only begun. This year Nintendo will add the technological power of updated NVidea chipsets to the Switch family. You will buy a Switch 2, resistance is futile.



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Random_Matt on 22 April 2019
Jumpin said:
Nintendo now establishes dominance, and it has not yet brought out its most devastating guns. Nintendos wrath will be terrible, its retribution swift. The battle for fiscal 2019 is over. The battle for fiscal 2020 has only begun. This year Nintendo will add the technological power of updated NVidea chipsets to the Switch family. You will buy a Switch 2, resistance is futile.

So Switch 2 or pro or whatever will be a new gen then? The next tegra will be different architecture, this will be a hot topic where goal posts will be moved.



Medisti on 22 April 2019
Alex_The_Hedgehog said:
Medisti said:
Word about the PS5 is trickling out, which will make people think twice about buying a PS4 and just waiting instead. I'm really surprised how close Switch and PS4 have been in Europe the last few weeks. That's Sonyland, but the Switch is only a little bit behind. Even a year ago I wouldn't have suggested that being possible.

I'm glad I'm not the only one thinking that. Also, since PlayStation 5 will be backward compatible, waiting for it makes even more sense.

Well, if the person that wants to play PS4 games is Ok with waiting until the PS5 release, that is.

A lot of people are. There's even a term for it: The Osborne Effect. Though, that pertains specifically to announcing your new product too soon and killing sales of your current one. But the new product being confirmed ALWAYS has an impact.



SammyGiireal on 22 April 2019
Ganoncrotch said:

Whoa, Switch adjusted up while the other 2 machines getting adjusted down, based on those new numbers that would mean that Nintendo actually landed 21k more controllers into hands this week than the other 2 companies combined efforts, heck the Switch alone is around 6k units off outselling the PS4 and X1 combined.

Also the X1 down to the 60k mark globally? that's pretty much a console on the way out, very much on the way out, it would now be very common knowledge even among those not too up on the sales of systems that it would be a poor investment right now to buy that system. Cascade sales drop in full effect. That is a 10k drop from last week for a system that's already selling tragically low numbers when you consider that it's got 2 different SKU's on the shelf with another one on the way with even less features. This E3 is going to need to start off with a large dish of humble pie and a very clear acknowledgement that the Xbox 1 was not what gamers wanted... that said, the Xbox1SAD is a closer step towards the original vision of what the X1 was going to be when it launched, no real ownership of games, less control of your device and also no backwards compatibility again which was lauded as one of the better features of the X1, now with the lack of disk drive completely back to square zero in that regard.

In truth this is a problem. The disc less Xbox one S will flop...badly. they cut the biggest incentive togetting one by getting rid of the UHD drive.



The_Liquid_Laser on 22 April 2019
curl-6 said:
Alex_The_Hedgehog said:

I'm glad I'm not the only one thinking that. Also, since PlayStation 5 will be backward compatible, waiting for it makes even more sense.

Well, if the person that wants to play PS4 games is Ok with waiting until the PS5 release, that is.

I doubt the PS5 is having much impact on PS4 sales as it hasn't even been properly revealed yet. All we have are some scarce factoids and insubstantial rumors.

I agree.  Especially since these sales would have happened before Cerny gave us any details on the PS5.



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Ganoncrotch on 22 April 2019
SammyGiireal said:
Ganoncrotch said:

Whoa, Switch adjusted up while the other 2 machines getting adjusted down, based on those new numbers that would mean that Nintendo actually landed 21k more controllers into hands this week than the other 2 companies combined efforts, heck the Switch alone is around 6k units off outselling the PS4 and X1 combined.

Also the X1 down to the 60k mark globally? that's pretty much a console on the way out, very much on the way out, it would now be very common knowledge even among those not too up on the sales of systems that it would be a poor investment right now to buy that system. Cascade sales drop in full effect. That is a 10k drop from last week for a system that's already selling tragically low numbers when you consider that it's got 2 different SKU's on the shelf with another one on the way with even less features. This E3 is going to need to start off with a large dish of humble pie and a very clear acknowledgement that the Xbox 1 was not what gamers wanted... that said, the Xbox1SAD is a closer step towards the original vision of what the X1 was going to be when it launched, no real ownership of games, less control of your device and also no backwards compatibility again which was lauded as one of the better features of the X1, now with the lack of disk drive completely back to square zero in that regard.

In truth this is a problem. The disc less Xbox one S will flop...badly. they cut the biggest incentive togetting one by getting rid of the UHD drive.

The backwards compatibility loss as well is fairly significant.



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colafitte on 22 April 2019

Switch is performing as expected. Nintendo is going to ship around 17'0M for the FY18, so Switch has to end around 35M shipped total by the end of March. If Switch has sold 33'0M to consumers by then there will be around 2'0M on shelves, in my opinion a little bit too much by this time of the year (althought perfectly possible). So this could mean three things: a) Switch is not going to reach the goal, b) Switch has sold to consumers more than VGC is showing, c) Switch is going to have that much units on shelves indeed and that will mean Switch is going to sell a lot more than last year in Q1 FY19 to consumers thanks to previous stock left available.

PS4 on the other hand, as time passes seems it's going to end around 14'5M sold to consumers in 2019 if there is no price cut. It's going to be a huge drop compared to 2018, but from Sony's perspective, selling 14-15M consoles at $300 is still as good or even better than what PS3 did in its prime, so maybe Sony will be satisified with this. If there is some important price cut this year, then PS4 can sell around 15-16M, but i'm not confident on that anymore.

XBO is so dead that i still believe XBO won't reach 50M before their successor comes in 2020 (even if it comes in holiday 2020). Considering that, as time passes, i won't be surprised if Microsoft prefer to launch their next console during March 2020 to have an advantage against PS5 launching on the holiday season.



Alby_da_Wolf on 22 April 2019

Ouch, after the adjustments PS4 numbers are still good, but NS weekly lead becomes even more impressive. PS4 starts showing its age, and while a price drop now could maybe be partially wasted, it will most probably need one in Autumn.



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PwerlvlAmy on 22 April 2019

Switch takes commanding leads in NA/Japan, but still lose EU, not sure why I find that funny. Sony is unstoppable no matter what in EU.



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curl-6 on 22 April 2019
Ganoncrotch said:

Whoa, Switch adjusted up while the other 2 machines getting adjusted down, based on those new numbers that would mean that Nintendo actually landed 21k more controllers into hands this week than the other 2 companies combined efforts, heck the Switch alone is around 6k units off outselling the PS4 and X1 combined.

Also the X1 down to the 60k mark globally? that's pretty much a console on the way out, very much on the way out, it would now be very common knowledge even among those not too up on the sales of systems that it would be a poor investment right now to buy that system. Cascade sales drop in full effect. That is a 10k drop from last week for a system that's already selling tragically low numbers when you consider that it's got 2 different SKU's on the shelf with another one on the way with even less features. This E3 is going to need to start off with a large dish of humble pie and a very clear acknowledgement that the Xbox 1 was not what gamers wanted... that said, the Xbox1SAD is a closer step towards the original vision of what the X1 was going to be when it launched, no real ownership of games, less control of your device and also no backwards compatibility again which was lauded as one of the better features of the X1, now with the lack of disk drive completely back to square zero in that regard.

It's going to be a very long 19 months for MS, assuming the next gen Xbox arrives holiday 2020; there's really nothing that can be done for Xbone at this point, it's a sinking ship, but they are stuck with it until they can get a successor out...

colafitte said:

XBO is so dead that i still believe XBO won't reach 50M before their successor comes in 2020 (even if it comes in holiday 2020). Considering that, as time passes, i won't be surprised if Microsoft prefer to launch their next console during March 2020 to have an advantage against PS5 launching on the holiday season.

...but on the other hand, being out March 2020 poses a big risk of letting Sony get the upper hand by being able to tailor PS5 to counter what Xbox Two offers.

Medisti said:
Alex_The_Hedgehog said:

I'm glad I'm not the only one thinking that. Also, since PlayStation 5 will be backward compatible, waiting for it makes even more sense.

Well, if the person that wants to play PS4 games is Ok with waiting until the PS5 release, that is.

A lot of people are. There's even a term for it: The Osborne Effect. Though, that pertains specifically to announcing your new product too soon and killing sales of your current one. But the new product being confirmed ALWAYS has an impact.

PS5 was always "confirmed", we always knew there would be one. I don't think it'll start having any significant effect on PS4 sales until they actually properly reveal the thing.

Last edited by curl-6 - on 22 April 2019