Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Prediction: Metroid Prime 4 is a new trilogy

Will Metroid Prime 4 be the beginning of a new trilogy?

Yes 5 50.00%
 
No 2 20.00%
 
I hope so 2 20.00%
 
I hope not 1 10.00%
 
Total:10

It's crazy prediction time!

I wouldn't have been sure of this claim when MP4 was first announced.  There was a new studio involved and Nintendo wouldn't be sure of their longevity.  Indeed, the were so unsure of the developer that they pulled them off the project completely.  However, as Retro Studios has taken over as principle developer, I think this idea is almost guaranteed.

First, I understand that the team that is making this game shares next to no DNA with the original Prime Trilogy dev team.  I'm sure this point will come up again and again in rebuttals to this prediction, and they're fair.  Just know that as the OP I'm aware of this fact, but even Nintendo themselves must feel that it isn't that big of a deal as they've basically gambled on Retro in a way they've never gambled on a franchise before (other titles were certainly gambles, but not announced years prior after a previous attempt had been scrapped).

The basis of my prediction is two fold.  One: Retro doesn't seem to mind going back to the same title to try out new ideas.  Metroid Prime didn't have to have a sequel.  In fact, prior to its release, fandom was kind of up in arms about the direction the title was taken (as Nintendo fans usually are).  Retro had the insight to leave a cliff hanger ending to the title, just in case the game warranted a follow up.  And once they got that follow up they made sure to give themselves an opportunity to do one more (and even more, considering where we are now). Likewise, even though Donkey Kong Country Returns was a great title, many, many people were disappointed that they weren't working on a Metroid title and they still went back for another helping of Kong.  Obviously this team doesn't get bored working with the same assets, characters, environments, playstyle, etc.  They even seem to relish in it.

Second, the sheer amount of money going into this project, especially given the canned false start, suggests that Nintendo themselves are going to want to get a little extra bang for their buck.  The development of a game like Metroid can't be cheap.  Scenario and cut scene development alone must be quite expensive, let alone asset and engine creation.  So why not go into this title with that being a given.  Each asset and animation they create in this title will have a guaranteed reusability and that will allow the team and Nintendo to feel more comfortable with allowing the dev process to tick up the dollars in production without as much fear as they normally might have.

Metroid titles don't sell well.  Metroid fans are ravenous and are always asking for the next game from Nintendo.  This idea of a premeditated trilogy would both help to appease Metroid fans (a vocal, and somewhat whiny bunch if I can speak for myself) for the decade to come as well as ensure that while one game might not net a profit, the recycling of assets should esure that over three titles that the project becomes at least somewhat of a profit machine.

Of course, if Metroid Prime 4 sucks, which we all know is a possibility, any further ideas for sequels could be scrapped and we could be left with a stand alone title anyway.  Somehow I don't see that happening, though.

And one other thing: Metroid Prime 4 will not be the title when this game is revealed for the first time.  It will have a new subheading and that will be the first indication that we are in for a longer ride than just a sequel to Metroid Prime 3.



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At this point I'll be damn happy if Prime 4 is a game



mZuzek said:
At this point I'll be damn happy if Prime 4 is a game

Oh you didn't know ?

Legendary is making the Direct to DVD movie instead of Retro Studios :P



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Where's the "I hope so" option?

Because I'm not convinced it will be, but damn I hope you're right.



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thetonestarr said:
Where's the "I hope so" option?

Because I'm not convinced it will be, but damn I hope you're right.

Also, this.



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Given how long it takes to make games these days, I'm just hoping for the first one before we're onto the next generation of Nintendo system. Anything after that is gravy.



thetonestarr said:
Where's the "I hope so" option?

Because I'm not convinced it will be, but damn I hope you're right.

Option added!



If I were a betting man:
1. Metroid Prime gets shelved indefinitely at some point.
2. The game gets released, but with disappointing reception.

I hate to be the guy with the negative opinion on the situation dealing with Retro, but the writing is on the wall in thick black marker.



I suspect Nintendo wishes to shut them down, but also doesn't want to risk a PR nightmare.

Metroid Prime 4 isn't really a major point in their strategy, but a lot of fans have the perception the game is of key importance. From Nintendo's POV, Metroid Prime already failed, they are presenting this is a backup plan.

Keep these points in mind:
* When Retro did Metroid Prime, their numbers were about 120 employees: that's over double the size of the current staff.
* When Retro worked on Metroid Prime, they did double to triple time shifts - so realistically, they needed 200-300 staff for that game.
* A successful Metroid Prime game today will need larger staff than they did 20 years ago: 400-500?
* Since Nintendo has announced the shift, they have added only two new job positions: a QA manager on contract (limited time) and an outsource manager.
* Retro Studios has two other positions from earlier that have yet to be filled - I can't imagine in Austin Texas no one wants to take them, it might be that Nintendo is not really taking their filling seriously.
* It looked like Nintendo was preparing to close the studio last year due to downsizing.

If Retro Studios fails with Metroid Prime 4, they will gain substantial ill will from fans.
This means Nintendo can avoid the PR backlash by shutting down the studio.

It appears they have thrown Metroid Prime 4 on Retro so they'll fail and look bad. Nintendo can shut them down without PR issues.

Last edited by Jumpin - on 01 April 2019

I describe myself as a little dose of toxic masculinity.

Assuming we get another trilogy, that means I have to kill Metroid Prime another 3 times?



Jumpin said:

If I were a betting man:
1. Metroid Prime gets shelved indefinitely at some point.
2. The game gets released, but with disappointing reception.

I hate to be the guy with the negative opinion on the situation dealing with Retro, but the writing is on the wall in thick black marker.



I suspect Nintendo wishes to shut them down, but also doesn't want to risk a PR nightmare.

Metroid Prime 4 isn't really a major point in their strategy, but a lot of fans have the perception the game is of key importance. From Nintendo's POV, Metroid Prime already failed, they are presenting this is a backup plan.

Keep these points in mind:
* When Retro did Metroid Prime, their numbers were about 120 employees: that's over double the size of the current staff.
* When Retro worked on Metroid Prime, they did double to triple time shifts - so realistically, they needed 200-300 staff for that game.
* A successful Metroid Prime game today will need larger staff than they did 20 years ago: 400-500?
* Since Nintendo has announced the shift, they have added only two new job positions: a QA manager on contract (limited time) and an outsource manager.
* Retro Studios has two other positions from earlier that have yet to be filled - I can't imagine in Austin Texas no one wants to take them, it might be that Nintendo is not really taking their filling seriously.
* It looked like Nintendo was preparing to close the studio last year due to downsizing.

If Retro Studios fails with Metroid Prime 4, they will gain substantial ill will from fans.
This means Nintendo can avoid the PR backlash by shutting down the studio.

It appears they have thrown Metroid Prime 4 on Retro so they'll fail and look bad. Nintendo can shut them down without PR issues.

I will continue to choose to deny this premise.  There are a lot of assumptions in this theory (as with my own) and the secrecy of Nintendo's affairs leaves neither of us with a lot of support.

But your version hurts my heart and I'm just not prepared at the moment to allow it to be a reality.