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Forums - Sales Discussion - Global Hardware 16 March 2019

colafitte on 30 March 2019
zorg1000 said:
colafitte said:

In respect of PS4 i was talking from memory, so maybe i wasn't completely accurate indeed.... But i was referring to the period that Sony considers "Holiday season", around 20 Nov-31 dec.

As for Switch, i must admit is surpassing my expectations as right now. If i remember correctly I expected around 17'5-18'0M in 2019 back in January, so maybe it can do better. But i remind to myself that it has grown a lot mostly this year thanks to Japan, and that Switch, due to a lot of stock left because of Q3 shipments has had a lot of deals everywhere that helped a lot of the sales recently, despite no new big games. That why i want to see what Switch does starting the new fiscal year. So yes, Switch now seems to me more capable to do 18'5-19'0M in 2019 which will be amazingly good, but I will stick to my 17'5-18'0M prediction yet.

And PS4, is more than probable it is going to receive a discount this year or have constant good deals through the year that will help soften the downward trend of sales this year. I don't think it will remain -20% YOY all the year until holiday season. That's why i expect PS4 doing around 15-16M in 2019.

Both consoles are going to do amazingly well this year, respecting their own circunstances.

Its grown alot in the US as well, Jan & Feb were both up 30% on a weekly average. Also what do you mean alot of deals everywhere? It has yet to drop below MSRP. They had a couple added value bundles but that's pretty normal to start happening when a console is 2 years old, it has little to do with shipments.

Why are your projections for PS4 factoring in a price cut but they seem to be ignoring a price cut or revision for Switch?

There were some deals in various part of the world, while PS4 only is having some in Japan. That was my point but i can't give you the details now, because again i was talking from memory of what happened in Jan and Feb. And it has to do with shipments, not only in this case with Switch but with every console because when there's more stock left than necessary you sell those with some deals to take advantage of that stock left. In this case, it's obvious Switch had a lot left after Q3 and if they want to reach that 17'5M shipment for fiscal year it's more than obvious why.

As for factoring a price cut for PS4 and not for Switch, it's because the more Switch sells, the less i think Nintendo is going to do a price cut. That's good news (for Nintendo as a company of course), not a bad one. As for a revision, until it's officialy announced i won't base predictions on rumors. If they happen eventually i will adapt, but not before. Too much rumors in the past that never became true...



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DonFerrari on 30 March 2019
zorg1000 said:
DonFerrari said:

5M seems less likely than 2M difference.

I dont think so based on their current YoY performances up to this point.

Don't think Switch will do 20+M while PS4 do 15-M but sure it can happen.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

DonFerrari on 30 March 2019
Bofferbrauer2 said:
DonFerrari said:

5M seems less likely than 2M difference.

2M is probably the difference in December alone with Pokemon and Animal Crossing. And even with just Pokemon, it should still do that difference.

Last year the PS4 lagged over 2M behind in December already (2.07M according to VGChartz), so how do you expect this year to do any less than that?

It is quite possible that by October the difference is less than 2M, but during the last 2-3 months the Switch should massively outsell the PS4.

Didn't say it will sell closer to 2M gap than to 5M, I said that is less likely that the gap will be 5M than 2M. Probably something like 3-4 is more likely.

zorg1000 said:
colafitte said:

In respect of PS4 i was talking from memory, so maybe i wasn't completely accurate indeed.... But i was referring to the period that Sony considers "Holiday season", around 20 Nov-31 dec.

As for Switch, i must admit is surpassing my expectations as right now. If i remember correctly I expected around 17'5-18'0M in 2019 back in January, so maybe it can do better. But i remind to myself that it has grown a lot mostly this year thanks to Japan, and that Switch, due to a lot of stock left because of Q3 shipments has had a lot of deals everywhere that helped a lot of the sales recently, despite no new big games. That why i want to see what Switch does starting the new fiscal year. So yes, Switch now seems to me more capable to do 18'5-19'0M in 2019 which will be amazingly good, but I will stick to my 17'5-18'0M prediction yet.

And PS4, is more than probable it is going to receive a discount this year or have constant good deals through the year that will help soften the downward trend of sales this year. I don't think it will remain -20% YOY all the year until holiday season. That's why i expect PS4 doing around 15-16M in 2019.

Both consoles are going to do amazingly well this year, respecting their own circunstances.

Its grown alot in the US as well, Jan & Feb were both up 30% on a weekly average. Also what do you mean alot of deals everywhere? It has yet to drop below MSRP. They had a couple added value bundles but that's pretty normal to start happening when a console is 2 years old, it has little to do with shipments.

Why are your projections for PS4 factoring in a price cut but they seem to be ignoring a price cut or revision for Switch?

The beggining of this year had better games legs from holiday and PS4 at a little weaker position than last year, that helps out a lot the up average of Switch. But to have 30% increase on holidays will be a lot harder.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

zorg1000 on 30 March 2019
colafitte said:
zorg1000 said:

Its grown alot in the US as well, Jan & Feb were both up 30% on a weekly average. Also what do you mean alot of deals everywhere? It has yet to drop below MSRP. They had a couple added value bundles but that's pretty normal to start happening when a console is 2 years old, it has little to do with shipments.

Why are your projections for PS4 factoring in a price cut but they seem to be ignoring a price cut or revision for Switch?

There were some deals in various part of the world, while PS4 only is having some in Japan. That was my point but i can't give you the details now, because again i was talking from memory of what happened in Jan and Feb. And it has to do with shipments, not only in this case with Switch but with every console because when there's more stock left than necessary you sell those with some deals to take advantage of that stock left. In this case, it's obvious Switch had a lot left after Q3 and if they want to reach that 17'5M shipment for fiscal year it's more than obvious why.

As for factoring a price cut for PS4 and not for Switch, it's because the more Switch sells, the less i think Nintendo is going to do a price cut. That's good news (for Nintendo as a company of course), not a bad one. As for a revision, until it's officialy announced i won't base predictions on rumors. If they happen eventually i will adapt, but not before. Too much rumors in the past that never became true...

Which various parts of the world? The only I know of were in North America.

There really isnt anything that suggests Switch was over shipped last quarter, the shipped vs sold difference at the end of 2018 was lower than PS4 in 2016, 2017 & about the same as 2018.

Your last paragraph is a contradiction, you wont count predictions/rumors for Switch but will gladly accept them for PS4 because a price cut for PS4 is nothing more than a prediction. You cant accept them for one console but disregard them for another when trying to make an unbiased analysis.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

zorg1000 on 30 March 2019
DonFerrari said:

zorg1000 said:

Its grown alot in the US as well, Jan & Feb were both up 30% on a weekly average. Also what do you mean alot of deals everywhere? It has yet to drop below MSRP. They had a couple added value bundles but that's pretty normal to start happening when a console is 2 years old, it has little to do with shipments.

Why are your projections for PS4 factoring in a price cut but they seem to be ignoring a price cut or revision for Switch?

The beggining of this year had better games legs from holiday and PS4 at a little weaker position than last year, that helps out a lot the up average of Switch. But to have 30% increase on holidays will be a lot harder.

I never once said I expected holidays to be up 30%, he said that Japan is the only place notably up YoY, I told him that US is as well.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

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DonFerrari on 30 March 2019
zorg1000 said:
DonFerrari said:

The beggining of this year had better games legs from holiday and PS4 at a little weaker position than last year, that helps out a lot the up average of Switch. But to have 30% increase on holidays will be a lot harder.

I never once said I expected holidays to be up 30%, he said that Japan is the only place notably up YoY, I told him that US is as well.

Understood.

Then I misunderstood your intent.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

BlackBeauty on 30 March 2019

I expecting switch do 25 million + this year. Based on Animal Crossing and Pokémon.

And 30 million + due to the revisions coming.



zorg1000 on 30 March 2019
BlackBeauty said:

I expecting switch do 25 million + this year. Based on Animal Crossing and Pokémon.

And 30 million + due to the revisions coming.

Ya that's not happening. That's peak DS numbers and the gaming landscape has changed since then.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

The_Liquid_Laser on 30 March 2019
BlackBeauty said:

I expecting switch do 25 million + this year. Based on Animal Crossing and Pokémon.

And 30 million + due to the revisions coming.

I can see 25m+ pretty easily.  Beyond that Nintendo needs to be able to make enough supply to sell 30m or more.  It might happen.  Depends on how much confidence Nintendo has in their product.

Last edited by The_Liquid_Laser - on 30 March 2019

curl-6 bet me that PS5 + X|S sales would reach 56m before year end 2023 and he was right.
My Bet With curl-6

My Threads:
Master Thread, Game of the Year/Decade
Switch Will Be #1 All Time
Zelda Will Outsell Mario (Achieved)
How Much Will MH Rise sell?
My Bet With Metallox

craighopkins on 30 March 2019

Is the switch up YOY again