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Global Hardware 16 March 2019

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DonFerrari said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

That would be true if everything stays at the current speed.

But while Switch should accelerate during Summer and boost in Fall with all the announced game releases during that period, and then go into overdrive during the holiday season with Pokemon and probably Animal Crossing this year, PS4 will mostly slowly slide down in sales, even with a 50$ pricecut, and  just boost a lot for Black Friday.

In the end, the difference should be more around 5M, if not even more than that.

5M seems less likely than 2M difference.

2M is probably the difference in December alone with Pokemon and Animal Crossing. And even with just Pokemon, it should still do that difference.

Last year the PS4 lagged over 2M behind in December already (2.07M according to VGChartz), so how do you expect this year to do any less than that?

It is quite possible that by October the difference is less than 2M, but during the last 2-3 months the Switch should massively outsell the PS4.



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zorg1000 said:
2018 thru March 17
PS4-3.38 million
NSW-2.33 million

2018 total
PS4-18.00 million
NSW-16.33 million

2019 thru March 16
PS4-2.70 million (-20.1%)
NSW-2.98 million (+27.9%)

2019 total using current YoY %
PS4-14.38 million
NSW-20.89 million

I have a hard time imagining PS4 being so close to NSW overall this year.

Using % for all the year is a bad calculation. Just because in those months those were the % doesn't mean when holiday season arrives PS4 will sell 20% less and Switch 30% more than in 2018. It doesn't work that way.

PS4 was selling less during the year last year but when holiday season came, the % difference was more closer. As for Switch, Switch was behind during Jan-Oct 2018 compared to Launch-Oct 2017 and thanks to a way better holiday season it sold 3M more.

I'm pretty sure Switch won't have a 30% better Q3 in 2019 than in 2018, and considering almost half of the sales from Nintendo consoles usually come during that period, you should expect a lot less than 20'9M sold...In my humble opinion, Switch will aim this year to reach 18M sold to consumers, and right now it's on pace of doing it, but we still need more data and time to know what to expect for all the year.

And because holiday season 2019 for PS4 can be similar to 2018, you can expect PS4 being more than 15M too. 

That's what i think will happen.



colafitte said:
zorg1000 said:
2018 thru March 17
PS4-3.38 million
NSW-2.33 million

2018 total
PS4-18.00 million
NSW-16.33 million

2019 thru March 16
PS4-2.70 million (-20.1%)
NSW-2.98 million (+27.9%)

2019 total using current YoY %
PS4-14.38 million
NSW-20.89 million

I have a hard time imagining PS4 being so close to NSW overall this year.

Using % for all the year is a bad calculation. Just because in those months those were the % doesn't mean when holiday season arrives PS4 will sell 20% less and Switch 30% more than in 2018. It doesn't work that way.

PS4 was selling less during the year last year but when holiday season came, the % difference was more closer. As for Switch, Switch was behind during Jan-Oct 2018 compared to Launch-Oct 2017 and thanks to a way better holiday season it sold 3M more.

I'm pretty sure Switch won't have a 30% better Q3 in 2019 than in 2018, and considering almost half of the sales from Nintendo consoles usually come during that period, you should expect a lot less than 20'9M sold...In my humble opinion, Switch will aim this year to reach 18M sold to consumers, and right now it's on pace of doing it, but we still need more data and time to know what to expect for all the year.

And because holiday season 2019 for PS4 can be similar to 2018, you can expect PS4 being more than 15M too. 

That's what i think will happen.

I know, I was giving a general idea of how sales are trending so far, of course they aren't going to be exactly that.

I think you're mixed up about PS4 last year.

Jan-Oct 2017, 13.02m

Nov+Dec 2017, 7.11m

Jan-Oct 2018, 11.71m (-10.1%)

Nov+Dec 2018, 6.29m (-11.6%)

The holidays were down more than non-holiday months.

There is nothing announced for April-October that will change it's current trend as last year had God of War, Spider Man & Red Dead and this year doesnt currently have anything close to their sales potential. There is also zero reason to believe this holiday wont be comfortably down YoY for PS4.

As for Switch I have a hard time believing it will only be up ~10% YoY for the full year when its already up ~28% with the last big title having released 2 months ago. Its lineup from June onward is more stacked than last year and it is heavily rumored to be getting 2 revisions later this year.

It might not be up ~28% for the whole year but anything under 20% would surprise me.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

zorg1000 said:
colafitte said:

Using % for all the year is a bad calculation. Just because in those months those were the % doesn't mean when holiday season arrives PS4 will sell 20% less and Switch 30% more than in 2018. It doesn't work that way.

PS4 was selling less during the year last year but when holiday season came, the % difference was more closer. As for Switch, Switch was behind during Jan-Oct 2018 compared to Launch-Oct 2017 and thanks to a way better holiday season it sold 3M more.

I'm pretty sure Switch won't have a 30% better Q3 in 2019 than in 2018, and considering almost half of the sales from Nintendo consoles usually come during that period, you should expect a lot less than 20'9M sold...In my humble opinion, Switch will aim this year to reach 18M sold to consumers, and right now it's on pace of doing it, but we still need more data and time to know what to expect for all the year.

And because holiday season 2019 for PS4 can be similar to 2018, you can expect PS4 being more than 15M too. 

That's what i think will happen.

I know, I was giving a general idea of how sales are trending so far, of course they aren't going to be exactly that.

I think you're mixed up about PS4 last year.

Jan-Oct 2017, 13.02m

Nov+Dec 2017, 7.11m

Jan-Oct 2018, 11.71m (-10.1%)

Nov+Dec 2018, 6.29m (-11.6%)

The holidays were down more than non-holiday months.

There is nothing announced for April-October that will change it's current trend as last year had God of War, Spider Man & Red Dead and this year doesnt currently have anything close to their sales potential. There is also zero reason to believe this holiday wont be comfortably down YoY for PS4.

As for Switch I have a hard time believing it will only be up ~10% YoY for the full year when its already up ~28% with the last big title having released 2 months ago. Its lineup from June onward is more stacked than last year and it is heavily rumored to be getting 2 revisions later this year.

It might not be up ~28% for the whole year but anything under 20% would surprise me.

In respect of PS4 i was talking from memory, so maybe i wasn't completely accurate indeed.... But i was referring to the period that Sony considers "Holiday season", around 20 Nov-31 dec.

As for Switch, i must admit is surpassing my expectations as right now. If i remember correctly I expected around 17'5-18'0M in 2019 back in January, so maybe it can do better. But i remind to myself that it has grown a lot mostly this year thanks to Japan, and that Switch, due to a lot of stock left because of Q3 shipments has had a lot of deals everywhere that helped a lot of the sales recently, despite no new big games. That why i want to see what Switch does starting the new fiscal year. So yes, Switch now seems to me more capable to do 18'5-19'0M in 2019 which will be amazingly good, but I will stick to my 17'5-18'0M prediction yet.

And PS4, is more than probable it is going to receive a discount this year or have constant good deals through the year that will help soften the downward trend of sales this year. I don't think it will remain -20% YOY all the year until holiday season. That's why i expect PS4 doing around 15-16M in 2019.

Both consoles are going to do amazingly well this year, respecting their own circunstances.



colafitte said:
zorg1000 said:

I know, I was giving a general idea of how sales are trending so far, of course they aren't going to be exactly that.

I think you're mixed up about PS4 last year.

Jan-Oct 2017, 13.02m

Nov+Dec 2017, 7.11m

Jan-Oct 2018, 11.71m (-10.1%)

Nov+Dec 2018, 6.29m (-11.6%)

The holidays were down more than non-holiday months.

There is nothing announced for April-October that will change it's current trend as last year had God of War, Spider Man & Red Dead and this year doesnt currently have anything close to their sales potential. There is also zero reason to believe this holiday wont be comfortably down YoY for PS4.

As for Switch I have a hard time believing it will only be up ~10% YoY for the full year when its already up ~28% with the last big title having released 2 months ago. Its lineup from June onward is more stacked than last year and it is heavily rumored to be getting 2 revisions later this year.

It might not be up ~28% for the whole year but anything under 20% would surprise me.

In respect of PS4 i was talking from memory, so maybe i wasn't completely accurate indeed.... But i was referring to the period that Sony considers "Holiday season", around 20 Nov-31 dec.

As for Switch, i must admit is surpassing my expectations as right now. If i remember correctly I expected around 17'5-18'0M in 2019 back in January, so maybe it can do better. But i remind to myself that it has grown a lot mostly this year thanks to Japan, and that Switch, due to a lot of stock left because of Q3 shipments has had a lot of deals everywhere that helped a lot of the sales recently, despite no new big games. That why i want to see what Switch does starting the new fiscal year. So yes, Switch now seems to me more capable to do 18'5-19'0M in 2019 which will be amazingly good, but I will stick to my 17'5-18'0M prediction yet.

And PS4, is more than probable it is going to receive a discount this year or have constant good deals through the year that will help soften the downward trend of sales this year. I don't think it will remain -20% YOY all the year until holiday season. That's why i expect PS4 doing around 15-16M in 2019.

Both consoles are going to do amazingly well this year, respecting their own circunstances.

Its grown alot in the US as well, Jan & Feb were both up 30% on a weekly average. Also what do you mean alot of deals everywhere? It has yet to drop below MSRP. They had a couple added value bundles but that's pretty normal to start happening when a console is 2 years old, it has little to do with shipments.

Why are your projections for PS4 factoring in a price cut but they seem to be ignoring a price cut or revision for Switch?



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

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zorg1000 said:
colafitte said:

In respect of PS4 i was talking from memory, so maybe i wasn't completely accurate indeed.... But i was referring to the period that Sony considers "Holiday season", around 20 Nov-31 dec.

As for Switch, i must admit is surpassing my expectations as right now. If i remember correctly I expected around 17'5-18'0M in 2019 back in January, so maybe it can do better. But i remind to myself that it has grown a lot mostly this year thanks to Japan, and that Switch, due to a lot of stock left because of Q3 shipments has had a lot of deals everywhere that helped a lot of the sales recently, despite no new big games. That why i want to see what Switch does starting the new fiscal year. So yes, Switch now seems to me more capable to do 18'5-19'0M in 2019 which will be amazingly good, but I will stick to my 17'5-18'0M prediction yet.

And PS4, is more than probable it is going to receive a discount this year or have constant good deals through the year that will help soften the downward trend of sales this year. I don't think it will remain -20% YOY all the year until holiday season. That's why i expect PS4 doing around 15-16M in 2019.

Both consoles are going to do amazingly well this year, respecting their own circunstances.

Its grown alot in the US as well, Jan & Feb were both up 30% on a weekly average. Also what do you mean alot of deals everywhere? It has yet to drop below MSRP. They had a couple added value bundles but that's pretty normal to start happening when a console is 2 years old, it has little to do with shipments.

Why are your projections for PS4 factoring in a price cut but they seem to be ignoring a price cut or revision for Switch?

There were some deals in various part of the world, while PS4 only is having some in Japan. That was my point but i can't give you the details now, because again i was talking from memory of what happened in Jan and Feb. And it has to do with shipments, not only in this case with Switch but with every console because when there's more stock left than necessary you sell those with some deals to take advantage of that stock left. In this case, it's obvious Switch had a lot left after Q3 and if they want to reach that 17'5M shipment for fiscal year it's more than obvious why.

As for factoring a price cut for PS4 and not for Switch, it's because the more Switch sells, the less i think Nintendo is going to do a price cut. That's good news (for Nintendo as a company of course), not a bad one. As for a revision, until it's officialy announced i won't base predictions on rumors. If they happen eventually i will adapt, but not before. Too much rumors in the past that never became true...



zorg1000 said:
DonFerrari said:

5M seems less likely than 2M difference.

I dont think so based on their current YoY performances up to this point.

Don't think Switch will do 20+M while PS4 do 15-M but sure it can happen.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Bofferbrauer2 said:
DonFerrari said:

5M seems less likely than 2M difference.

2M is probably the difference in December alone with Pokemon and Animal Crossing. And even with just Pokemon, it should still do that difference.

Last year the PS4 lagged over 2M behind in December already (2.07M according to VGChartz), so how do you expect this year to do any less than that?

It is quite possible that by October the difference is less than 2M, but during the last 2-3 months the Switch should massively outsell the PS4.

Didn't say it will sell closer to 2M gap than to 5M, I said that is less likely that the gap will be 5M than 2M. Probably something like 3-4 is more likely.

zorg1000 said:
colafitte said:

In respect of PS4 i was talking from memory, so maybe i wasn't completely accurate indeed.... But i was referring to the period that Sony considers "Holiday season", around 20 Nov-31 dec.

As for Switch, i must admit is surpassing my expectations as right now. If i remember correctly I expected around 17'5-18'0M in 2019 back in January, so maybe it can do better. But i remind to myself that it has grown a lot mostly this year thanks to Japan, and that Switch, due to a lot of stock left because of Q3 shipments has had a lot of deals everywhere that helped a lot of the sales recently, despite no new big games. That why i want to see what Switch does starting the new fiscal year. So yes, Switch now seems to me more capable to do 18'5-19'0M in 2019 which will be amazingly good, but I will stick to my 17'5-18'0M prediction yet.

And PS4, is more than probable it is going to receive a discount this year or have constant good deals through the year that will help soften the downward trend of sales this year. I don't think it will remain -20% YOY all the year until holiday season. That's why i expect PS4 doing around 15-16M in 2019.

Both consoles are going to do amazingly well this year, respecting their own circunstances.

Its grown alot in the US as well, Jan & Feb were both up 30% on a weekly average. Also what do you mean alot of deals everywhere? It has yet to drop below MSRP. They had a couple added value bundles but that's pretty normal to start happening when a console is 2 years old, it has little to do with shipments.

Why are your projections for PS4 factoring in a price cut but they seem to be ignoring a price cut or revision for Switch?

The beggining of this year had better games legs from holiday and PS4 at a little weaker position than last year, that helps out a lot the up average of Switch. But to have 30% increase on holidays will be a lot harder.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

colafitte said:
zorg1000 said:

Its grown alot in the US as well, Jan & Feb were both up 30% on a weekly average. Also what do you mean alot of deals everywhere? It has yet to drop below MSRP. They had a couple added value bundles but that's pretty normal to start happening when a console is 2 years old, it has little to do with shipments.

Why are your projections for PS4 factoring in a price cut but they seem to be ignoring a price cut or revision for Switch?

There were some deals in various part of the world, while PS4 only is having some in Japan. That was my point but i can't give you the details now, because again i was talking from memory of what happened in Jan and Feb. And it has to do with shipments, not only in this case with Switch but with every console because when there's more stock left than necessary you sell those with some deals to take advantage of that stock left. In this case, it's obvious Switch had a lot left after Q3 and if they want to reach that 17'5M shipment for fiscal year it's more than obvious why.

As for factoring a price cut for PS4 and not for Switch, it's because the more Switch sells, the less i think Nintendo is going to do a price cut. That's good news (for Nintendo as a company of course), not a bad one. As for a revision, until it's officialy announced i won't base predictions on rumors. If they happen eventually i will adapt, but not before. Too much rumors in the past that never became true...

Which various parts of the world? The only I know of were in North America.

There really isnt anything that suggests Switch was over shipped last quarter, the shipped vs sold difference at the end of 2018 was lower than PS4 in 2016, 2017 & about the same as 2018.

Your last paragraph is a contradiction, you wont count predictions/rumors for Switch but will gladly accept them for PS4 because a price cut for PS4 is nothing more than a prediction. You cant accept them for one console but disregard them for another when trying to make an unbiased analysis.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

DonFerrari said:

zorg1000 said:

Its grown alot in the US as well, Jan & Feb were both up 30% on a weekly average. Also what do you mean alot of deals everywhere? It has yet to drop below MSRP. They had a couple added value bundles but that's pretty normal to start happening when a console is 2 years old, it has little to do with shipments.

Why are your projections for PS4 factoring in a price cut but they seem to be ignoring a price cut or revision for Switch?

The beggining of this year had better games legs from holiday and PS4 at a little weaker position than last year, that helps out a lot the up average of Switch. But to have 30% increase on holidays will be a lot harder.

I never once said I expected holidays to be up 30%, he said that Japan is the only place notably up YoY, I told him that US is as well.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.