Where things stand

Here's the updated Real Clear Politics average of the six most recent polls, all of which are from the second half of August:

Biden: 27.3%
Sanders: 19.2%
Warren: 16%
Harris: 7.2%
Buttigieg: 4.8%
Others: >3%

As I predicted the other week, the race has snapped back to normal now that the aura of the last debate round has subsided, with Biden and Sanders once again composing the leading two candidates in the polling average. That's clearly the way this race wants to go. The bottom line is that Sanders has regained his second-place position at Elizabeth Warren's expense. (A couple weeks ago, Warren was averaging 18.5% and Sanders 17.5%.)

Joe Biden has also fallen off a bit of late, surprisingly, causing the race to meaningfully tighten a bit to where the second place candidate now polls less than ten points behind the leading one. In a hopeful scenario, that reflects the fact that, as we approach Labor Day, more people are now paying attention to the Democratic contest. Still, with more than 60% of Biden supporters saying that they've made up their minds as to who they'll be voting for in the primaries, I'm no longer as optimistic as some are about the prospects for him falling much further than this. (He has also been here before: in mid-July, after the first round of debates, he reached an average of 26%. It didn't last.)

Also, Kamala Harris is now pretty much all the way back to where she was before the first debate round: back then, her polling average was exactly 7% and now it is back down to 7.2%, so basically the same.

Additional small observation: Democratic voters clearly want more emotional candidates this time around. The most aesthetically Obama-like candidate in this race I can see is Pete Buttigieg and the most Hillary Clinton-like candidate is Amy Klobuchar and neither of them seem to be able to break into double-digits as a generalized trend. Anyone else notice this? It's like we're in pain for some odd reason. *cough cough*

A ranking of my preferences

So it looks like there will be ten candidates who make the next debate and that it could mercifully even be a one-night event for a change. (It's been fun hearing from 20 candidates over two nights, but I think it is time for things to get more focused at this point. It's clear that many of these campaigns aren't getting anywhere.) This de-facto winnowing makes it much easier for me to order my preferences. Here's the order in which I prefer the ten candidates who are confirmed to be on the next debate stage:

1) Elizabeth Warren
2) Bernie Sanders
3) Andrew Yang
4) Kamala Harris
5) Cory Booker
6) Julian Castro
7) Pete Buttigieg
8) Beto O'Rourke
9) Joe Biden
10) Amy Klobuchar

I don't agree with Gabbard for many obvious reasons, as I've stated before, but to be fair her criticism of the DNC polls criteria is fair. Monmouth can pull out a poll with 298 people and a whopping 6% m.o.e. and this is accepted, while Morning Consult can poll 17,000 and it isn't. The former effectively makes for a randomizer on who will and who won't be accepted in the next debates for the 1 - 2% crowd (even though non-online polls have shown to be more accurate to voter demographics in the last two elections).

One proof that that Warren narrative is wrong: Biden's support didn't come crashing down and became an also ran. Support from Black people alone can only bring him so far, and the younger ones largely prefer Sanders over Biden in that regard. The rest is mostly those elites, the moderates and establishment, whichever you want to call them. And considering the black vote is increasingly slipping away from Biden, they make a growing part of his voters.

Krystal Ball is pretty good at spotting some underhanded tactics which are handled by the media at large against Sanders, but it's undeniable that her support for Bernie has blinded her a bit in that regard.

Yeah, I don't understand this attack against Warren. Luckily the candidates itself seem to have come to an agreement long ago, they are avoiding to attack each other and seem more like a team than competitors. I wouldn't be surprised if they have agreed long ago to pledge their delegates to the leading of the two in exchange for becoming VP or a post in the cabinet.

With Biden's constant gaffes and errors, I am starting to find Warren more palatable.

And yes, her willingness to work with the Democratic party, cooperative tone with the "establishment", and tone of unity are a huge plus for me.

Generalizing Bernie supporters and then in the same post decrying the generalization of Warren supporters is hardly fair and is disingenuous.

While I don't agree with everything Ball said in the video she raises a valid concern in Warren's assurance to the establishment Democrats who are extremely corporate friendly that she's aligned with them. Working within your party is expected but only time will tell if Warren's assurance here means something else entirely like that of what Ball describes.

In defense of Ball, Warren's ideology wasn't put into scrutiny in this video, in fact even after this opinion piece she has openly defended Warren on the show. There's no question Warren is running a progressive campaign. I don't believe she's saying Warren's pro-corporate because of this report just that it could be concerning in the long run. And she considers just Sanders, Biden, and Warren to be the only viable candidates. So when she says Warren polls last in low-income Americans she's correct when taken into her context as illustrated by you.

Regardless this will help Warren and it's a very smart move. It exploits one of Bernie's weaknesses in that his support with establishment Democrats is incredibly weak.

LMAO. That Krystal Ball video is radical echo chamber lunacy. Breitbart-level propaganda.

Then again, she is the same person who spent 7 minutes acting as Tulsi (another lunatic) apologist.

And frankly, it's not even worth pursuing that kind of audience. Nothing will ever be enough, and everyone will always be the "establishment's pick". Can do without those votes.

Gillibrand is out https://edition.cnn.com/2019/08/28/politics/gillibrand-drops-out-of-race/index.html

Good. I really did not like how during her senate election she promised not to run for President if she won and she did a few months later.

Lol

CNN town hall with de Blasio and Bullock marks ratings low for network https://t.co/2Cv9plj7Qd pic.twitter.com/GIfFhlOndK

— The Hill (@thehill) August 26, 2019