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Forums - Politics Discussion - Official 2020 US Election: Democratic Party Discussion

OTBWY said:

Oh, hmm. I was going by this but perhaps it is not as recent as your data: https://www.newsweek.com/bernie-sanders-leads-all-democratic-candidates-support-non-white-voters-new-polls-show-1486807 It's also not very specific. But I do think that Biden's troubles will make them move over to Sanders more than likely. I can't imagine them moving over to Pete.

The specific source I was referencing before on the opinions of black voters specifically was the most recent Quinnipiac University poll. According to that survey:

27% of black voters still support Joe Biden (down sharply from 51% in November).
22% of them now support Michael Bloomberg (this is where those former Biden supporters are mainly going).
19% of them support Bernie Sanders.
8% of them support Elizabeth Warren.
4% of them support Pete Buttigieg.
A negligible share support other candidates.

However, that's black voters only. By contrast, 40% of Latinos in New Hampshire voted for Bernie Sanders, which was much better than the 25% of the vote he got overall. And then of course there are Asian Americans and others to account for. The survey you link to simply describes the preferences of "non-white" voters in the abstract, as in to say that it combines all of those groups into one lump sum rather than breaking down the details further.

What it all means for Sanders' chances is that, as things presently stand, he has a particularly good shot at winning in states like Nevada with large Hispanic populations, but could struggle more, conversely, in states like South Carolina where most of the Democratic voters are black. Texas has a bit of both, but especially Latinos. The ideal situation for a Sanders win in the Texas Democratic primary is an even split in the votes for Biden and Bloomberg locally, i.e. for the current trajectory of things to continue, but maybe not to the point of Biden dropping out of the race before Super Tuesday on March 3rd.



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Jaicee said:
OTBWY said:

Oh, hmm. I was going by this but perhaps it is not as recent as your data: https://www.newsweek.com/bernie-sanders-leads-all-democratic-candidates-support-non-white-voters-new-polls-show-1486807 It's also not very specific. But I do think that Biden's troubles will make them move over to Sanders more than likely. I can't imagine them moving over to Pete.

The specific source I was referencing before on the opinions of black voters specifically was the most recent Quinnipiac University poll. According to that survey:

27% of black voters still support Joe Biden (down sharply from 51% in November).
22% of them now support Michael Bloomberg (this is where those former Biden supporters are mainly going).
19% of them support Bernie Sanders.
8% of them support Elizabeth Warren.
4% of them support Pete Buttigieg.
A negligible share support other candidates.

However, that's black voters only. By contrast, 40% of Latinos in New Hampshire voted for Bernie Sanders, which was much better than the 25% of the vote he got overall. And then of course there are Asian Americans and others to account for. The survey you link to simply describes the preferences of "non-white" voters in the abstract, as in to say that it combines all of those groups into one lump sum rather than breaking down the details further.

What it all means for Sanders' chances is that, as things presently stand, he has a particularly good shot at winning in states like Nevada with large Hispanic populations, but could struggle more, conversely, in states like South Carolina where most of the Democratic voters are black. Texas has a bit of both, but especially Latinos. The ideal situation for a Sanders win in the Texas Democratic primary is an even split in the votes for Biden and Bloomberg locally, i.e. for the current trajectory of things to continue, but maybe not to the point of Biden dropping out of the race before Super Tuesday on March 3rd.

I generally look at Morning Consult for that kind of data. Sadly, the newest set of data in that regard is from January 22, so pretty much outdated by now. Still, at that point, the standings were like this:

Black voters:

41% Biden

25%Sanders

12% Warren

8% Bloomberg

4% Yang

3% Steyer

Hispanic Voters:

36% Sanders

22% Biden

13% Warren

10% Bloomberg

7% Yang

5% Buttigieg

3% Steyer

Asian Voters:

26% Biden

22% Sanders

15% Warren

11% Yang

11% Bloomberg

5% Buttigieg

Other non-white voters:

39% Sanders

25% Biden

12% Warren

6% Bloomberg

6% Yang

4% Buttigieg

3% Steyer

It would be very interesting to see where the voters from Biden and Yang went to now, I hope MC will release such a report again soon. Yang's supporters probably went mostly to Bernie, but Biden's could just as well have gone to Bloomberg, Klobuchar or maybe even Pete (though I doubt it in case of black voters). Nevadas and SC results sure will become very interesting in that regard!



Sorry for the deluge of agree notifications, everyone. I've been pretty crazy busy lately. Let's see, my turn to comment on the latest.

Bennet and Patrick were WAY overdue on dropping out, good riddance.

On Yang, it was time for him, and his political career is NOT done.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/andrew-yang-new-york-mayor-election-2020-drops-out-michael-bloomberg-latest-polls-a9331991.html

https://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/ny-yang-nyc-mayor-20200212-mmihnhgfxrd2dcisjsefmk5cai-story.html

https://nypost.com/2020/02/14/andrew-yang-thinks-new-york-city-should-adopt-a-universal-basic-income/

This could be amazing. Of all cities in the US, New York is probably the best poised for a localized UBI. It's practically a city state unto itself. New York could do it, and popularize it. It could breath new life into the city, which already has a bustling economy but not one that any but the super rich can really enjoy all that much. Yang could totally pull this off. I have my concerns about UBI, whether it will work, whether it will improve inequality or worsen it, but we'll never know without a good test, and I can't image a better laboratory.



The Nevada caucuses are looking a mess with potentially five candidates between 10 and 20%, and Super Tuesday will probably be the same.

I don't think anyone will drop out before then, which could be good for Sanders and whoever comes second out of the others, in terms of a delegate advantage.

Edit - come to think of it, Steyer might drop out before ST if he underperforms Nevada and South Carolina.

Last edited by haxxiy - on 15 February 2020

 

 

 

 

 

https://morningconsult.com/2020/02/13/sanders-cements-front-runner-status-after-new-hampshire-win/

"Among black voters — one of Biden’s strongest blocs of support — confidence in his chances of beating Trump fell 10 points, to 21 percent. Roughly a third of black voters (32 percent) said Sanders is Democrats’ best chance to beat Trump, up 9 points from last week, and 21 percent said Bloomberg, up 7 points. "

Here's one poll suggesting black voters actually are starting to lose faith in Biden and aren't warming quite as much to Bloomberg as the Quinnipiac poll indicated. Sanders leads in this one.

https://www.reviewjournal.com/news/politics-and-government/nevada/sanders-holds-lead-heading-into-nevadas-democratic-caucuses-poll-finds-1957583/

And we finally got another Nevada poll! And Sanders is in the lead! If Biden underperforms here as well, Steyer might be the one to surge this time. If I had to guess, Sanders will come out decisively on top in the popular vote, less decisively in the delegate count, but will just barely pull that off, for his first undeniable caucus win. Biden will either come in second or collapse. Warren will come in third, probably just barely viable. If Biden collapses, Steyer will be second, if he doesn't, Steyer will be fourth. Klobuchar and Buttigieg will do terribly and the "Klobucharge" will end, as will her campaign, most likely, if she has any sense, once it becomes clear that the less white states will not support her. Buttigieg will have the same narrative around him but has the funding to keep going into Super Tuesday, even if South Carolina will be even nastier for him.



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HylianSwordsman said:
Sorry for the deluge of agree notifications, everyone. I've been pretty crazy busy lately. Let's see, my turn to comment on the latest.

Bennet and Patrick were WAY overdue on dropping out, good riddance.

On Yang, it was time for him, and his political career is NOT done.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/andrew-yang-new-york-mayor-election-2020-drops-out-michael-bloomberg-latest-polls-a9331991.html

https://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/ny-yang-nyc-mayor-20200212-mmihnhgfxrd2dcisjsefmk5cai-story.html

https://nypost.com/2020/02/14/andrew-yang-thinks-new-york-city-should-adopt-a-universal-basic-income/

This could be amazing. Of all cities in the US, New York is probably the best poised for a localized UBI. It's practically a city state unto itself. New York could do it, and popularize it. It could breath new life into the city, which already has a bustling economy but not one that any but the super rich can really enjoy all that much. Yang could totally pull this off. I have my concerns about UBI, whether it will work, whether it will improve inequality or worsen it, but we'll never know without a good test, and I can't image a better laboratory.

Yang should run for NYC Mayor next year so fox all the shit De Blasio has done



haxxiy said:

The Nevada caucuses are looking a mess with potentially five candidates between 10 and 20%, and Super Tuesday will probably be the same.

I don't think anyone will drop out before then, which could be good for Sanders and whoever comes second out of the others, in terms of a delegate advantage.

Edit - come to think of it, Steyer might drop out before ST if he underperforms Nevada and South Carolina.

Gabbard is ready to drop out, I can't see her riding that thing until Super Tuesday. Maybe she has some more money to burn, but I think itwould be more clever to save it and transfer it to a later campaign.



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Mnementh said:
haxxiy said:

The Nevada caucuses are looking a mess with potentially five candidates between 10 and 20%, and Super Tuesday will probably be the same.

I don't think anyone will drop out before then, which could be good for Sanders and whoever comes second out of the others, in terms of a delegate advantage.

Edit - come to think of it, Steyer might drop out before ST if he underperforms Nevada and South Carolina.

Gabbard is ready to drop out, I can't see her riding that thing until Super Tuesday. Maybe she has some more money to burn, but I think itwould be more clever to save it and transfer it to a later campaign.

I can't figure out why she stayed this long. I'm not sure if she's running for anything, so if she transfers it to a later campaign, it might be sitting for a while. It's too late to run for anything this cycle, and if she's giving up her house seat, she's not going to try for it again most likely, she'd have just contested it this cycle if she were. It'll only be harder when she isn't the incumbent. I doubt she'll go for lower office, she just ran for president. She might try for Senate or Governor, but I don't see her successfully primarying anyone in those seats now and she's probably not going to run as a Republican in Hawaii. So all I could see is her running in 2028 for president again.



Jaicee said:
haxxiy said:

Come on folks, tossing the "moderate" label on Warren as if it were some insult, even if it were true, it's just lame. She's to the left of probably 80% of the American populace. If you want a candidate that has never attacked anyone else in the race, then Bloomberg is actually the guy for you.

I honestly wish it weren't, considering the awkwardness it causes to party members later in the generals, but that has always been part of the game.

Current polling on the issues indicates that most Americans are pretty much aligned with Bernie Sanders on economic policy. Specifically, most of the public supports the Green New Deal, some form of Medicare-for-all (specifically, Sanders is starting to win the argument in favor of a single-payer system, as I've pointed out before), tuition-free college, and a $15/hour minimum wage. Those are all mainstream positions in today's America.

Conversely though, the public is more moderate than the progressive Democrats on social policy. The general public broadly supports same-sex marriage, but believes that abortion is immoral and should only be legal in the first trimester. Similarly, opinion polling consistently suggests that the public broadly opposes Trump's border wall, supports the introduction of a pathway to citizenship for undocumented immigrants, and believes that immigrants are fundamentally good for the country. However, the polling also indicates that the public is, conversely, broadly against affording undocumented immigrants with access to taxpayer-funded programs of social uplift like Medicare and Medicaid, and certainly opposes abolishing ICE. (The Latino community has a different opinion on some of those things, but I'm talking public opinion in the country overall.) Also, 60% of Americans support the death penalty.

Now: Consider that Elizabeth Warren is literally hopping with excitement for unisex prisons. Consider that Bernie Sanders believes that the Boston Marathon bomber should have the right to vote. Consider that both Warren and Sanders have expressed openness to legalizing brothels in the course of this campaign. Do these sound like mainstream opinions to you? (Spoiler: only 37% of Americans consider pornography to be morally acceptable; it's less popular than abortion. How do you think the public feels about formal prostitution?)

My point is that, yes, these candidates, both of them, definitely embrace some views that could be considered left of where the general consensus is. The ideas highlighted in the paragraph immediately preceding this one (unisex prisons, voting rights for convicted terrorists, legalizing brothels) qualify as left of where I stand, let alone of where Jane and Joe Average Americans are.

These things said, the public, including me, is also broadly willing to vote for somebody who doesn't agree with them on just everything so long as that candidate is perceived as more aligned with their views and interests than the alternative(s) overall. To that end, whoever the eventual Democratic nominee is can afford to take some positions that are left of overall public opinion here and there.

My point though is that there's no question in my mind that these are both left wing candidates. It's silly of anyone to suggest otherwise.

Given the trend in 2018, would you say a Sanders ticket would complicate efforts to flip the Texas State Legislature?



Moren said:
Jaicee said:

Current polling on the issues indicates that most Americans are pretty much aligned with Bernie Sanders on economic policy. Specifically, most of the public supports the Green New Deal, some form of Medicare-for-all (specifically, Sanders is starting to win the argument in favor of a single-payer system, as I've pointed out before), tuition-free college, and a $15/hour minimum wage. Those are all mainstream positions in today's America.

Conversely though, the public is more moderate than the progressive Democrats on social policy. The general public broadly supports same-sex marriage, but believes that abortion is immoral and should only be legal in the first trimester. Similarly, opinion polling consistently suggests that the public broadly opposes Trump's border wall, supports the introduction of a pathway to citizenship for undocumented immigrants, and believes that immigrants are fundamentally good for the country. However, the polling also indicates that the public is, conversely, broadly against affording undocumented immigrants with access to taxpayer-funded programs of social uplift like Medicare and Medicaid, and certainly opposes abolishing ICE. (The Latino community has a different opinion on some of those things, but I'm talking public opinion in the country overall.) Also, 60% of Americans support the death penalty.

Now: Consider that Elizabeth Warren is literally hopping with excitement for unisex prisons. Consider that Bernie Sanders believes that the Boston Marathon bomber should have the right to vote. Consider that both Warren and Sanders have expressed openness to legalizing brothels in the course of this campaign. Do these sound like mainstream opinions to you? (Spoiler: only 37% of Americans consider pornography to be morally acceptable; it's less popular than abortion. How do you think the public feels about formal prostitution?)

My point is that, yes, these candidates, both of them, definitely embrace some views that could be considered left of where the general consensus is. The ideas highlighted in the paragraph immediately preceding this one (unisex prisons, voting rights for convicted terrorists, legalizing brothels) qualify as left of where I stand, let alone of where Jane and Joe Average Americans are.

These things said, the public, including me, is also broadly willing to vote for somebody who doesn't agree with them on just everything so long as that candidate is perceived as more aligned with their views and interests than the alternative(s) overall. To that end, whoever the eventual Democratic nominee is can afford to take some positions that are left of overall public opinion here and there.

My point though is that there's no question in my mind that these are both left wing candidates. It's silly of anyone to suggest otherwise.

Given the trend in 2018, would you say a Sanders ticket would complicate efforts to flip the Texas State Legislature?

Interestingly, many Democrats are fearing this: https://www.politico.com/news/2020/02/15/texas-dems-sweat-bernie-sanders-ticket-110524