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Forums - Politics Discussion - Official 2020 US Election: Democratic Party Discussion

DarthJarvis said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

Nope, the polling average was at 26% just before the election: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-d/new-hampshire/

As such, Bernie did about as expected, just slightly below it with 25.7%

Buttigieg and Klobuchar overperformed while Warren and Biden underperformed. Steyer and Tulsi also did a bit better than expected.

You realize theres literal places that compile all poll data. RCP had his average at 28.7. 270towin had it a little lower. His actual was 25.7. Despite all of that, he was still projected to grab 15 delegates. It was absolutely a poor showing for bernie. 

There are literal places, and he took 538 average, which had Bernie at 26.0%:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-d/new-hampshire/

This is as valid as RCP, 358 is even a bit more sophisticated with applying a trendline and demographic analysis:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-makes-our-new-2020-democratic-primary-polling-averages-different/



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Mnementh said:
DarthJarvis said:

You realize theres literal places that compile all poll data. RCP had his average at 28.7. 270towin had it a little lower. His actual was 25.7. Despite all of that, he was still projected to grab 15 delegates. It was absolutely a poor showing for bernie. 

There are literal places, and he took 538 average, which had Bernie at 26.0%:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-d/new-hampshire/

This is as valid as RCP, 358 is even a bit more sophisticated with applying a trendline and demographic analysis:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-makes-our-new-2020-democratic-primary-polling-averages-different/

You realize that is averaging all the way up to today. It just doesnt make any sense to continue with bernie supporters. They are about as bad as trump's 



DarthJarvis said:
Mnementh said:

There are literal places, and he took 538 average, which had Bernie at 26.0%:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-d/new-hampshire/

This is as valid as RCP, 358 is even a bit more sophisticated with applying a trendline and demographic analysis:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-makes-our-new-2020-democratic-primary-polling-averages-different/

You realize that is averaging all the way up to today. It just doesnt make any sense to continue with bernie supporters. They are about as bad as trump's 

Aren't you able to read? There it is visible on the graph: February 11th leader:

On the contests still open we have already arrived at February 12th. And you can hover with the mouse to see the result the days before: 25.9% on the 10th, 26.0% on the 9th. But it just doesn't make any sense to continue with Bernie haters, they are about as bad as Trump fans. Denying reality to match their worldview.



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10 years greatest game event!

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Mnementh said:
DarthJarvis said:

You realize that is averaging all the way up to today. It just doesnt make any sense to continue with bernie supporters. They are about as bad as trump's 

Aren't you able to read? There it is visible on the graph: February 11th leader:

On the contests still open we have already arrived at February 12th. And you can hover with the mouse to see the result the days before: 25.9% on the 10th, 26.0% on the 9th. But it just doesn't make any sense to continue with Bernie haters, they are about as bad as Trump fans. Denying reality to match their worldview.

I'm going to love watching Bernie's descent into oblivion. 



DarthJarvis said:
Mnementh said:

Aren't you able to read? There it is visible on the graph: February 11th leader:

On the contests still open we have already arrived at February 12th. And you can hover with the mouse to see the result the days before: 25.9% on the 10th, 26.0% on the 9th. But it just doesn't make any sense to continue with Bernie haters, they are about as bad as Trump fans. Denying reality to match their worldview.

I'm going to love watching Bernie's descent into oblivion. 

"Oh, someone showed that my talk is baseless and my statements were wrong, so let's switch into some incoherent rambling to avoid admitting that I was wrong."

Yeah, exactly like Trump-fans.

By the way, I don't know if Sanders will win the primary or Bloomberg or Biden. Or maybe there is a contested convention. And I don't say I have all the answers. But at least I am able to check my facts.



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10 years greatest game event!

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DarthJarvis said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

Nope, the polling average was at 26% just before the election: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-d/new-hampshire/

As such, Bernie did about as expected, just slightly below it with 25.7%

Buttigieg and Klobuchar overperformed while Warren and Biden underperformed. Steyer and Tulsi also did a bit better than expected.

You realize theres literal places that compile all poll data. RCP had his average at 28.7. 270towin had it a little lower. His actual was 25.7. Despite all of that, he was still projected to grab 15 delegates. It was absolutely a poor showing for bernie. 

He was expected to grab 15 Delegates because Klobuchar wasn't supposed to get past the 15% mark according to the polls. She got 6 delegates due to this, the 6 delegates that are missing for Bernie now. But that's not because of him underperforming, but rather Klobuchar overperforming.

Also, like Mnementh already said, RCP and 538 both compile polling data.

In any case, in Nevada and SC Pete and Klobuchar will be much weaker. They are not doing well with non-white voters at all (Pete's voters are even almost exclusively white, he's below 3% in any other category except Asian, where he gets about 5%. Steyer and Yang polled better than him among black people ffs) and most of their voters are Boomers and to a lesser degree X-ers. They basically stole most of the white voters from Biden and Warren in Iowa and NH. That will seriously penalize them going forward, as the other states are much more diverse and not over 90% white.



Mnementh said:
DarthJarvis said:

I'm going to love watching Bernie's descent into oblivion. 

"Oh, someone showed that my talk is baseless and my statements were wrong, so let's switch into some incoherent rambling to avoid admitting that I was wrong."

Yeah, exactly like Trump-fans.

By the way, I don't know if Sanders will win the primary or Bloomberg or Biden. Or maybe there is a contested convention. And I don't say I have all the answers. But at least I am able to check my facts.

LOL, you are using a set of polls as bias confirmation. I'm using multiple data sets and historical figures. Someone's claims are baseless here for sure.



Bofferbrauer2 said:
DarthJarvis said:

You realize theres literal places that compile all poll data. RCP had his average at 28.7. 270towin had it a little lower. His actual was 25.7. Despite all of that, he was still projected to grab 15 delegates. It was absolutely a poor showing for bernie. 

He was expected to grab 15 Delegates because Klobuchar wasn't supposed to get past the 15% mark according to the polls. She got 6 delegates due to this, the 6 delegates that are missing for Bernie now. But that's not because of him underperforming, but rather Klobuchar overperforming.

Also, like Mnementh already said, RCP and 538 both compile polling data.

In any case, in Nevada and SC Pete and Klobuchar will be much weaker. They are not doing well with non-white voters at all (Pete's voters are even almost exclusively white, he's below 3% in any other category except Asian, where he gets about 5%. Steyer and Yang polled better than him among black people ffs) and most of their voters are Boomers and to a lesser degree X-ers. They basically stole most of the white voters from Biden and Warren in Iowa and NH. That will seriously penalize them going forward, as the other states are much more diverse and not over 90% white.

That's not how the delegates work. If Klobuchar didnt get the 15%  they wouldnt have gone to Bernie. So you cant say "that's where they are missing." Take her out of the picture completely and he only gets 3 more. Split her votes up to the more likely candidates then biden probably crosses 15% and Buttigieg grabs a couple more

Last edited by DarthJarvis - on 12 February 2020

PS - as of 87% reporting, there have been 25k more votes than in 2016.

Bernie has half the votes from 4 years ago.

It's clear that he doesnt have the same support... he should have done better. That's just a fact. More voters by 50-70k should translate to less of a decline.



Sanders more or less matched his averages in polls... but these polls included a large number of undecideds that are breaking heavily for Buttigieg - Klobuchar at the voting booths so far. Even among those who previously tended to vote for Warren. I'm not sure about Yang - Gabbard, but they underperformed and these votes didn't seem to go to Sanders either.

We'll see what happens in Nevada. Another Biden - Warren collapse could leave Buttigieg - Klobuchar with > 40% of the vote there as well.