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Forums - Sales Discussion - PS4/XBO/NS - 2018 vs. 2019 - Week 52 Numbers Added; Final 2019 Totals

zorg1000 on 20 February 2019
Amnesia said:
We are now far from the time where PS4 could almost double Switch with nothing, now with 2 heavy releases it barely equal Switch with nothing and before the US 35$ pricecut.

Sales should still be pretty competitive for the Feb/Mar.

Switch has the $35 eshop promotion in Feb and Yoshi in March.

PS4 has Far Cry/Anthem/Metro in Feb and DMC/Divison/Sekiro in March.



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JRPGfan on 20 February 2019

5 weeks into it.....

NSW = 1.4m
PS4 = 1.3m
XB1 = 0.3m

thats a shocking differnce between 2 of them and the 3rd.



JRPGfan on 20 February 2019
derpysquirtle64 said:
Good job and thanks for the thread.

I guess with both PS4 and XB1 on decline and Switch on the rise we will have something like that by the year's end:
PS4 - 106m
Switch - 51m
XB1 - 45.5m

So your expecting:
PS4 = 14m only? seems abit low.
NSW = 20m+
XB1 = 4m? Seems very low, I wouldnt be surprised if it does around double that.

LIke I think your underestimateing the PS4 by around 2m..... Im expecting a 16m+ year.
I also think even with how poorly the Xbox is doing, only thinking it ll do 4m all year long is way overboard.


Slightly more realistic prediction (mine):

PS4 - 108m
Switch = 50m
XB1 = 49m

I still think Switch takes over the Xbox One this year though.



The_Liquid_Laser on 20 February 2019

Thank you for starting another one of these threads.  Much appreciated.

PAOerfulone said:
According to my first calculations for this thread: By the 4th week of last year, the PS4, Xbox One, and Nintendo Switch sold through roughly 7.15%, 4.97%, and 5.75% of their yearly sales respectively.

Applying those same percentages to this year, given the first 4 weeks of data we have now, this is what all three systems would sell in 2019:

PlayStation 4 - 14,644,360
Xbox One - 4,827,667
Nintendo Switch - 20,292,569

Those numbers are a pretty good baseline.  Then make adjustments based on other factors.  For example

1) Switch's 2018 line-up is going to be their weakest one until Switch's successor comes out.  Meanwhile their 2019 line-up is already looking stronger, and we still haven't heard what kind of third party games are coming.  Most likely the third party output will be a lot better this year too.  Also there are rumors of a new Switch model being released this year.  So 20m is actually a very conservative estimate.  25m+ will be more accurate.

2) PS4 arguably had their best game line-up in 2018.  On the other hand, they are far overdue for a price cut.  Assuming one comes this year, it will probably balance out the weaker (but still respectable) game line-up.  So 15m is probably about right for them.

3) XB1?  Is it even getting exclusives this year?  Then again it didn't get many last year either.  So 5m is really the maximum in sales for XB1, but it might only get 3-4m.



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TruckOSaurus on 20 February 2019

Very interesting thread, I'll be looking forward to seeing it updated as the year progresses.



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leo-j on 20 February 2019

Xbox one s is selling at 199-210 at most major retailers bundled with games and barely pushed 300k world wide for it’s first 5 weeks this year.

I don’t see any single reason why the system would push ahead of 4 million this year..... as it’s on a decline and priced super low.

Especially if Sony cuts the PS4 to 249, people would go for that over a 199 one s. Right now it’s 299 vs 199.



 

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derpysquirtle64 on 20 February 2019
JRPGfan said:
derpysquirtle64 said:
Good job and thanks for the thread.

I guess with both PS4 and XB1 on decline and Switch on the rise we will have something like that by the year's end:
PS4 - 106m
Switch - 51m
XB1 - 45.5m

So your expecting:
PS4 = 14m only? seems abit low.
NSW = 20m+
XB1 = 4m? Seems very low, I wouldnt be surprised if it does around double that.

LIke I think your underestimateing the PS4 by around 2m..... Im expecting a 16m+ year.
I also think even with how poorly the Xbox is doing, only thinking it ll do 4m all year long is way overboard.


Slightly more realistic prediction (mine):

PS4 - 108m
Switch = 50m
XB1 = 49m

I still think Switch takes over the Xbox One this year though.

Switch was ~18m last year, so it is almost guaranteed to sell 20m+ because it is already up compared to last year and I think it will continue to be up.

PS4 was ~18m last year as well and of course it will only decline from here. I think 14-15m this year with a slight possibility of 16m.

XB1. Well, it is hard to say how much it sold last year because of adjustments which were made after new year, but most likely it was around 6m. So, it is hard to imagine it selling more than 4-5m this year.



 

zorg1000 on 20 February 2019
derpysquirtle64 said:
JRPGfan said:

So your expecting:
PS4 = 14m only? seems abit low.
NSW = 20m+
XB1 = 4m? Seems very low, I wouldnt be surprised if it does around double that.

LIke I think your underestimateing the PS4 by around 2m..... Im expecting a 16m+ year.
I also think even with how poorly the Xbox is doing, only thinking it ll do 4m all year long is way overboard.


Slightly more realistic prediction (mine):

PS4 - 108m
Switch = 50m
XB1 = 49m

I still think Switch takes over the Xbox One this year though.

Switch was ~18m last year, so it is almost guaranteed to sell 20m+ because it is already up compared to last year and I think it will continue to be up.

PS4 was ~18m last year as well and of course it will only decline from here. I think 14-15m this year with a slight possibility of 16m.

XB1. Well, it is hard to say how much it sold last year because of adjustments which were made after new year, but most likely it was around 6m. So, it is hard to imagine it selling more than 4-5m this year.

Switch was 16.3 million last year, not 18 million



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

ironmanDX on 20 February 2019

Nice. Subbing again for the year.



Robert_Downey_Jr. on 21 February 2019
The_Liquid_Laser said:

Thank you for starting another one of these threads.  Much appreciated.

PAOerfulone said:
According to my first calculations for this thread: By the 4th week of last year, the PS4, Xbox One, and Nintendo Switch sold through roughly 7.15%, 4.97%, and 5.75% of their yearly sales respectively.

Applying those same percentages to this year, given the first 4 weeks of data we have now, this is what all three systems would sell in 2019:

PlayStation 4 - 14,644,360
Xbox One - 4,827,667
Nintendo Switch - 20,292,569

Those numbers are a pretty good baseline.  Then make adjustments based on other factors.  For example

1) Switch's 2018 line-up is going to be their weakest one until Switch's successor comes out.  Meanwhile their 2019 line-up is already looking stronger, and we still haven't heard what kind of third party games are coming.  Most likely the third party output will be a lot better this year too.  Also there are rumors of a new Switch model being released this year.  So 20m is actually a very conservative estimate.  25m+ will be more accurate.

2) PS4 arguably had their best game line-up in 2018.  On the other hand, they are far overdue for a price cut.  Assuming one comes this year, it will probably balance out the weaker (but still respectable) game line-up.  So 15m is probably about right for them.

3) XB1?  Is it even getting exclusives this year?  Then again it didn't get many last year either.  So 5m is really the maximum in sales for XB1, but it might only get 3-4m.

The PS4 pricecut effect depends entirely whether $250 or $200

 

$250 and I see it doing 15m

 

$200 and I see 16m+



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