Your point in the price cut still yet to happen for Switch is a good point. Switch is not "far ahead". I did say how much compare to each other in the same timeframe 32m vs 29m (shipped). That's not "far ahead to me". 3DS and Switch sold around 13M during first calendar year and 3DS sold 14M and Switch around 16'5M in the second (according to VGC). There's not so much differnece. And the games coming in 2019 for Switch are very very similar to same IP's 3DS received on its 3rd year. And in my opinion, the price cut will not help as much as people expect either, it will just help the sales to not drop.

As for the games point. I see it as..., people already bought that much switch because the games they wanted were already available and were extremely good, so that brought your consumers to Switch earlier than normal.

Expecting Switch to sell way more than 3DS because its softaware is selling better, is not a good reason. Switch software is selling way better than Wii back then and Wii will be very far ahead in sales in just a few months (because Wii will receive its 2008 sales in next months).

Switch sales are amazing as they are. People are understimating how difficult is to sell more than 15M consoles in a year.... PS3, X360, 3DS weren't capable to do it, and Swtich is doing that at $300 price. If it sells 17-18M in 2019 it will be another resounding success for Nintendo.

3DS managed to those numbers in second year with revision in 2nd year and huge price cut in 1st year, and Switch without those things started performing stronger than 3DS in same time period and difference will much bigger how time is passing. Maybe you dont realise, but 3DS had only 2 FY above 13m, and only 3 above 10m, first full FY was 13.5m, 2nd full FY was 14m, and 3rd was 12.2m, while on other hand Switch has 15m in full 1st year and it will have around 17m in its full 2nd year and thats still whithout any revision and price cut compared to 3DS. With all that on mind, Switch sales looks much more stronger, healthier and much more promising than 3DS sales ever were.

Only 1m more in FY 2019. compared to FY 2018. sounds too low because 2019. FY Switch lineup will be much stronger than 2018. FY was, and Switch will have most likely have revision and price cut in FY 2019.

Sorry, I thought it did less XD. By the way, we have to wait March sales if we really want to compare sales and by then we'll know if Switch will be up YoY on the third year or not. That's interesting

With Fire Emblem, Animal Crossing and Pokemon in one year and coming on the heels of a Smash/PLG which seemingly boosted the baseline quite a bit, I wouldn't exactly think of 20M as expecting too much, and more like conservative estimation.

That's also a possibility, of course

Nope to almost all the 1st paragraph for the reasons i said in my previous post. Switch hardware sales are not "much more stronger, healthier" than 3DS. They are just better, just that, and i really think they are because Switch gmes in its first 2 years were better than 3DS ones, so that brought a lot more people despite Switch being more expensive. 

Switch and 3DS were tied during first FY, Switch is going to have better sales in 2nd and 3rd. But that doesn't mean Switch is going to sell way better in the 3rd than the 2nd. People are trying too hard to convert Switch in DS and Wii, and Switch is not them. It will have a different pace during its lifetime, and my opinion, more similar to 3DS. Just my opinion of course.

And no to the second point too. Sorry Miyamotoo, you know we have already had this same discussion multiple times..... I still don't see this year having "much stronger lineup" than 2018. And even if it has better lineup this year, it doesn't need to translate to more hardware sales either. There are multiple examples in others consoles history where better software didn't translate to better sales (PS4 this year for example), but 3DS was the better one to compare because of how much they sold in 2014 compared to 2013, despite 2014 having better games (Monster Hunter 4, Pokemon X/Y, Luigi's Mansion 3D, Yokai Watch, Donkey Kong Country 3D, ....).

You missing point, they are stronger, but with fact they are better without price cut and revision that 3DS had in that time period, conclude they are much healthier/stronger:

-3DS FY 2012. - 13.5m vs Switch FY 2017. - 15m (note 3DS had huge price cut only 6 months after launch)

-3DS FY 2013. - 14m vs Switch FY 2018. -  around 17m (note: 3DS had revision)

-3DS FY 2014. - 12.2m vs Switch FY 2019. - expected somewhere around 20m (with all thing counting, like very strong lineup, price cut and revision)

Talking about games, 3DS also had strong games in its first two full FYs.

I agree that Switch will have similar pace to 3DS in sales than to Wii (and buy that I think sales want fail of a cliff like in case of Wii and longer life span like 3DS), with diffrence that Switch will have quite stronger sales per years, and we already have situation where Switch will sell 3m units more in its 2nd full FY than 3DS did, and in 3rd year difference will be even bigger (easily 7m+, because 3DS had 12.2m year in FY 2014),  not to mentioned 4. FY where 3DS sold 8.7m.

But its not point what you think about, but point is about things we do know: just currently confirmed 2019. games: NSMBU DX, Yoshi, Pokemon Gen 8, Animal Crossing, Fire Emblem, Luigi's Mansion 3, Daemon X Machina, Marvel Ultimate Alliance 3, Town...in same period of last year what we know about 2018. lineup was only Kirby, Mario Tennis, Donkey Kong TF and Hyrule Warriors DE, and thats with early January Direct while we still need to have 1st Direct this year where we will have new announcements in any case. Nintendo published games directly effect on sales, sales proves that, sales in 2018. until September were slower because they were not big new releases, sales explode with Mario Party, Pokemon Lets Go and Smash Bros. Comparing effects of releases on hardware sales of console thats in its 6. year on market and console that yets need to enter its 3. year on market dont make any sense, because buy that time consoles are near and of its life cycle and every console entered in lower sales years compared to previous years in any case.

That's why if 3DS ends around 78-79M sold lifetime, i expect Switch around 85-90M by the end too. Switch is going to take the advantage this years, but like 3DS after 3rd year, is going to drop a lot, for Switch it will be 2020, and in 2021 probably will be a below 10M console per year console by then.

I think i already said how much i expect Switch doing

29'5 at the end of 2018

17M in 2019 -> 46'5M LT

12M in 2020 -> 58'5M LT

9M in 2021  ->  67'5M LT

7'5M in 2022 -> 75'0M LT

7M in 2023  ->  82'0M  LT

and from there a few million more until stops around 87-88M.

That's a very specific and very difficult prediction to make, so i will be most probably wrong, but it's the pace i'm expecting. I know this crashes with every Nintendo fan here expecting Switch to sell more than 100M but this is my honest prediction, and it's based in the same reasons that made me believe 9-10M were going to be shipped in Q3 and the same reasons i was sure Switch was not going to reach 20M this FY.

Software sales, is different. I think the people expecting every IP from Nintendo selling the best ever on Switch are going to be right in the end. I said months ago i expected Smash Bros ending around 16-17M, but now is very probable it could surpass that, although i still think selling 5-6M more after such a huge launch is still a difficult task. 

When you make disccusion and comparing numbers pls stick to shipped numbers, because we getting oficcall shipped numbers from Nintendo, and we also have shipped numbers from 3DS, its much harder to track sold numbers, so stick to facts, at end of 2018. Switch is at 32.3m.

My prediction would be something like this:

-Launch: 2.7m

-2017. FY: 15m

-2018. FY: 17m

-2019. FY: 20m

-2020. FY: 17m

-2021. FY: 13m

-2022. FY: 9m

-2023. FY: 6m

-2024. FY: 3m

So Switch can easily hit 100m, but even if it dont hit 100m it will easily pass 90m LT.

Compared to 3DS:

-Launch - 3.6m

-2011. FY: 13.6m

-2012. FY: 14m

-2013. FY: 12.2m

-2014. FY: 8.7m

-2015. FY: 6.8m

-2016. FY: 7.3m

-2017. FY: 6.4m

-2018. FY: 3m

What you fail to see (or ignoring) is that 3DS peaked very early in its 1st and 2nd year because it had very early huge price cut and 1st revision, while on other hand Switch has already now much bigger apealing and popularity on market than 3DS ever had and thats why first 2 FYs for Switch is better than best 2 3DS years, before even Nintendo start aggressively pushing Switch with price cuts, revisions, bundles and deals. Also, onother huge diffrence compared not just to 3DS but to any previous Nintendo platform is that Switch is Nintendo unified platform and only Nintendo platform moving forward, that doesn't mean only all Nintendo IPs on one platform, but generally full Nintendo support in any case (so we taking about games, push, marketing, planing...) just for one platform instead divided to 2 different platforms like before.

I already explained multiple times why is my reasoning for this year, for the next ones there's no possible way to explain them. 

As for the numbers, fair point. 

Shipped by fiscal year:

FY 2019  18M

FY 2020  11M

FY 2021  10M

FY 2022   7M

FY 2023   5M

So around 85M shipped by March 2024.