Forums - Sales Discussion - VGChartz Switch Hardware Numbers Going Down?

How come in the past few minutes the Switch hardware numbers for January 5th are slowly dropping? They just went from 30.7 million down to 30.4 million.

Please explain.



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ZhugeEX twiter yesterday saying Switch exceeding 30M sell through worldwide at the end of January 2019. Adjustments were needed.

"Nintendo Switch sell through to consumers has exceeded 30 million units as of the end of Jan 2019".

Switch was probably overtracked between 500k-1'0M here...



 

CaptainExplosion said:

How come in the past few minutes the Switch hardware numbers for January 5th are slowly dropping? They just went from 30.7 million down to 30.4 million.

Please explain.

I'm sure it's CGI making adjustments to the territory charts- you'll see the numbers for all of the companies fluctuate as adjustments are made



Now they are 30'2M and show around 16'7M in 2018. More in line with what i expected (close to 16'5M) and around 29'5-30'0M lifetime by the end of the year.

After seeing that PS4 has 2'6M on shelves, ZhugeEX tweet and Switch shipping 32'2M, i'm not surprised if Switch has around 2'5M on shelves too, so around 29'7M sold in reality. With this adjustment, we have more accurate numbers now.

 

Edit: Probably more adjustments coming, so we'll see where it ends.



 

colafitte said:
ZhugeEX twiter yesterday saying Switch exceeding 30M sell through worldwide at the end of January 2019. Adjustments were needed.

"Nintendo Switch sell through to consumers has exceeded 30 million units as of the end of Jan 2019".

Switch was probably overtracked between 500k-1'0M here...

This is the reason for the adjustments. Best case scenario is Switch was just below 30 million by end of December and is just below 31 million by end of January, but is likely lower than that. I'm making adjustments to the Switch figures to be more inline with the figures released by Nintendo. 



VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo - I stream on Twitch and have my own YoutubeFollow me on Twitter @TrunksWD.

Writer of the Gap Charts | Weekly Hardware Breakdown Top 10 | Weekly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features, as well as daily news on the Video Game Industry.

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colafitte said:
ZhugeEX twiter yesterday saying Switch exceeding 30M sell through worldwide at the end of January 2019. Adjustments were needed.

"Nintendo Switch sell through to consumers has exceeded 30 million units as of the end of Jan 2019".

Switch was probably overtracked between 500k-1'0M here...

Those numbers arent from ZhugeEX, they come from Nintendo's investor briefing.

It's hard to tell exact numbers because Nintendo has a history of saying something has exceeded and it's actually way above that.

For example, in their Nov NPD PR they said Switch sales exceeded 8.2 million in the US and week or so later we find out exceeded 8.2 million actually meant over 8.7 million.

Or the infamous NPD December 2009 when they said they Wii sales were over 3 million for the month when in fact it was 3.81 million.

Then there is also the fact that it had to be an estimate because not even Nintendo would have end of January global sell through yesterday as the presentation would been prepared days in advance before January was even over.

 

With that said, yes it was likely overtracked by a bit, I highly doubt close to 1 million though.



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zorg1000 said:

 

colafitte said:
ZhugeEX twiter yesterday saying Switch exceeding 30M sell through worldwide at the end of January 2019. Adjustments were needed.

"Nintendo Switch sell through to consumers has exceeded 30 million units as of the end of Jan 2019".

Switch was probably overtracked between 500k-1'0M here...

Those numbers arent from ZhugeEX, they come from Nintendo's investor briefing.

It's hard to tell exact numbers because Nintendo has a history of saying something has exceeded and it's actually way above that.

For example, in their Nov NPD PR they said Switch sales exceeded 8.2 million in the US and week or so later we find out exceeded 8.2 million actually meant over 8.7 million.

Or the infamous NPD December 2009 when they said they Wii sales were over 3 million for the month when in fact it was 3.81 million.

Then there is also the fact that it had to be an estimate because not even Nintendo would have end of January global sell through yesterday as the presentation would been prepared days in advance before January was even over.

 

With that said, yes it was likely overtracked by a bit, I highly doubt close to 1 million though.

I never said those numbers were from ZhugeEX. He said numerous times that he has insight to worldwide trackers like NPD, MC, GFK and others. So his words are reliable, at least as reliable as when he said XBO numbers a few days ago.

And i said 0'5-1'0M because before adjustments Switch showed 30'7M at January 5th, and if Switch sold the same the rest of the month as it did last year, Switch was on pace to finish around 31'3-31'4M. Even if Switch ended around 30'9M (something doubtful) and Switch did not sold better this this year compared to last (also doubtful) it will still be around 0'4-0'5M overtracked at least.

I do think Switch sold better this Jan than last, and that Switch did not finished so close to 31'0M by the end of the month, and that's why Switch should be closer to 1M overtracked.

Last edited by colafitte - on 01 February 2019

zorg1000 said: 
colafitte said:
ZhugeEX twiter yesterday saying Switch exceeding 30M sell through worldwide at the end of January 2019. Adjustments were needed.

"Nintendo Switch sell through to consumers has exceeded 30 million units as of the end of Jan 2019".

Switch was probably overtracked between 500k-1'0M here...

Those numbers arent from ZhugeEX, they come from Nintendo's investor briefing.

It's hard to tell exact numbers because Nintendo has a history of saying something has exceeded and it's actually way above that.

For example, in their Nov NPD PR they said Switch sales exceeded 8.2 million in the US and week or so later we find out exceeded 8.2 million actually meant over 8.7 million.

Or the infamous NPD December 2009 when they said they Wii sales were over 3 million for the month when in fact it was 3.81 million.

Then there is also the fact that it had to be an estimate because not even Nintendo would have end of January global sell through yesterday as the presentation would been prepared days in advance before January was even over.

 

With that said, yes it was likely overtracked by a bit, I highly doubt close to 1 million though.

This is going to develop into the same story as last year.



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Zombie9ers said:

 

CaptainExplosion said:

How come in the past few minutes the Switch hardware numbers for January 5th are slowly dropping? They just went from 30.7 million down to 30.4 million.

Please explain.

I'm sure it's CGI making adjustments to the territory charts- you'll see the numbers for all of the companies fluctuate as adjustments are made

'twould be Trunks or Machina when it comes to sales figures and adjustments.



Bet Shiken that COD would outsell Battlefield in 2018. http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8749702

What is most important to me is having the hardware figures on VGChartz to be as accurate as possible. Easy enough to do for the PlayStation 4 as Sony releases sell-through figures with an exact date. These figures from Nintendo at the minimum mean at the end of January 2019 the Switch has sold between 30-30.9 million units and is below 30 million at the end of December 2018.



VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo - I stream on Twitch and have my own YoutubeFollow me on Twitter @TrunksWD.

Writer of the Gap Charts | Weekly Hardware Breakdown Top 10 | Weekly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features, as well as daily news on the Video Game Industry.