Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Analysts increasingly believe that Nintendo's goal to sell 20m Switch units this FY is realistic

 

How sales in November and December hugly raise compared to same period of last year, Nintendo gaol of 20m is more and more realistic.

Last edited by Miyamotoo - on 16 January 2019

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Good to see!

I guess we'll know for sure in 2 weeks with Nintendos IR report and meeting, but that makes it more and more probable



Again, it's shipments, not sales. Nintendo's shipments are not constrained by sales, they're constrained by production. Basically, since launch, they have shipped all their production because the danger of retailers is not being unable to sell their stock, but not having enough stock.



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Jumpin said:
Again, it's shipments, not sales. Nintendo's shipments are not constrained by sales, they're constrained by production. Basically, since launch, they have shipped all their production because the danger of retailers is not being unable to sell their stock, but not having enough stock.

This is a gross oversimplification.   The system is successful but that does not mean they can endlessly stuff the channels.  Eventually such a practice will result in a pronounced slump in shipments.  And by eventually I mean within a quarter.  If 20 mil was only production, they would not have gone into the holidays so far from their goal that people doubted it.  Nintendo easily could manufacture far more than was shipped in FY Q1 and Q2.  But they wouldn't have shipped that surplus because stores/suppliers WOULD NOT HAVE BOUGHT THEM



I never doubted it. I mean... since we knew that both Pokémon and Smash Bros. were coming for christmas, I was surprised by how almost everyone on this site thought 20 mil was impossible. It's Pokémon and Smash, two of the biggest franchises in videogame history. If there are games that makes people buy a console... its these two. Not one megaton. TWO MEGATONS. Add New Super Mario Bros. U in January to the mix and it's almost guaranteed that they will reach 20m or even surpass that number.



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Shares already jumped by 11% since I have bought some on Dec 21th. :)



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LET'S FACE THIS FACT : The Switch is the last physical video game system of the history who has a chance to beat PS2's sales.

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Nope, I haven't been in VGC seeing analysts being wrong more than being right to take this one as being the first.
But we will be with eyes open waiting to see they reaching it.



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It's going to be close. They'd need an 11 million Q3 and a 4 million Q4. I think the likelier split is 10m Q3 and 4m Q4 for just over 19m shipped for the financial year, which is still a great result.