I wouldn't want to jinx it but, if Switch's 2019 lineup so far delivers the Nintendo Switch would deserve to sell 5 million (or close to) in Japan this year.

Honestly the biggest thing I believe that has been holding Switch back in Japan from achieving peak 3DS/DS sales numbers is it's price tag. If does finally get it's first price cut in Japan this year I think it could do a world of change.

Animal Crossing was 2012 in Japan.

The difference is that 3DS had a price cut in year 1 and a revision in year 2, Switch is entering year 3 with neither of those things meaning the trajectory will likely be different from 3DS.

Media Create sales 3DS

2011-4.28m

2012-5.50m

2013-4.88m

2014-3.18m

3DS sales started out really slow, the price was too high and the software output too low, but the price cut in summer followed by big games in the fall led to a record first year.

Momentum from late 2011 continued in 2012 and this is when the system started to get a really steady output of big games and a revision. This was the 3rd best year for any system ever in Japan.

2013 was another amazing year but it's extremely hard to top what 2012 had and it suffered a modest decline. And by the beginning of 2014, 3DS already had an install base approaching 15 million so market saturation started to kick in causing a large drop in year 4 despite still selling strong.

I think the sales curve for Switch will be different

2017-3.31m

2018-3.53m

2019-~4.2m

2020-~3.7m

Instead of large increase followed by small decrease followed by large decrease, I think Switch will be small increase, big increase, small decrease in year 2, 3 & 4.

Wow, Smash has almost caught up to Splatoon 2. Didn't know Smash was that popular in Japan.

Oh, true about Animal Crossing New Leaf. VGC database showed 2013. My mistake.

Yeah, i agree with you. I expect Switch selling more, no less this year. But i just read a post before saying Pokemon, AC, Luigi's Mansion, Yokai Watch, etc... were launching this year on Switch and it remind me the lineup was very similar to 3DS in 2013.

So, basically i was trying to say, that a good lineup, is not a gurantee of better sales. Price and momentum are even more important.

I wonder when people will stop doubting the ps4. They never learn. 

Good prediction. I always said 8m minimum but hopeful it will beat 10m and ps3 in the end. I'm more so confident now then hopeful. 

Finally a positive prediction! I feel sony needs to drop the price big time if they are to do that. 

They gave it a $50 price cut with 2 digital games for the last 4 weeks. The price all year long was very high. If they give it a $50 permanent cut in say march or April it will help it sustain a better baseline. I feel they could do $100 off but they won't because they are keeping the price high WW. 

Waiting to get ship+digital from nintendo but does any1 think..... 5mil is possible for Smash? Dont forget thia game has huge digital sales too.

5 million lifetime? Of course that is in the realm of possibility. 

Haha sorry about that I hope I get used to it before february 

100% i agree with u,  i was talking about 2019 (this year sry) also I think they need some price cut or a cheaper handheld to reach even better numbers... And i think they are aware

It really is. All smash has to do is become an evergreen for 1 year. Hell it could be close to 4.5mil ship+ddigital by the end of 2019

2.6mil retail with another roughly 150k-200k for the rest of the month. Digital being high, i want to see this number badly. Lol

With regards to comparing 3ds first 2 years and switch, the thing to notice is how massive the impact of the 40 percent price drop really is.... That even the AMAZING 2013 lineup can't maintain 2012 sakes., But resulted in the 3ds using price cut boosts all in one go.