Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Michael Pachter: "Switch is tracking to sell 13 million this year"

I was reading this article about analysts predictions: https://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/2019-01-02-what-lies-ahead-analysts-make-2019-predictions

 

Here what's Michael Pachter have to say about his Switch predictions:

"Switch sales under 20 million: A+, tracking to 13 million this year"

 

I mean, how can he congratulate himself with an A+ after saying that the Switch was tracking to sell 8 millions this year, and then saying "oh it will sell 13 millions" ?

 

I don't know if he means 2018 only, because the Switch already shipped 8 millions before thanksgiving and christmas, or the fiscal year, even after seeing how huge it sold in the US according to NPD and Japan since Pokémon, how huge japanese numbers are since Smash is out, all the historical NPD rumors about Switch's december.

 

I mean, how can you be confident in the fact that the console will sell 8 millions from october to march and congratulatr yourself for your prediction ?



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I've got a question...why do some people say "millions?" I'm pretty sure spanish would pluralize the number as well. Is this a thing for many languages not english?



super_etecoon said:
I've got a question...why do some people say "millions?" I'm pretty sure spanish would pluralize the number as well. Is this a thing for many languages not english?

Well it sure doesn't make sense to me the fact that you can say "millions" but have to say "XX million". It's like "here what you have to know about innumerable nouns" "here what you have to know about numerable nouns" "and here the numbers, where all numerable and innumerable nouns don't apply because we said so".



"Quagmire, are you the type of guy who takes 'no' for an answer ?"
"My lawyer doesn't allow me to answer that question"

PSN ID: skmblake | Feel free to add me

https://gamerant.com/the-elder-scrolls-6-release-date-2019/

Obviously, this^ is best and most likeliest prediction so far. Well played.



Bet with Intrinsic:

The Switch will outsell 3DS (based on VGchartz numbers), according to me, while Intrinsic thinks the opposite will hold true. One month avatar control for the loser's avatar.

I mean granted he was right if it wasn't for November and December where they sold probably around 10 million systems. Its kind of hard to predict a system will go from a 1 million global a month to 3.3 and 6+.



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drinkandswim said:
I mean granted he was right if it wasn't for November and December where they sold probably around 10 million systems. Its kind of hard to predict a system will go from a 1 million global a month to 3.3 and 6+.

It's that hard when you are supposed to be the industries most well known video game retail sales analyst and you've studied quarterly sales trends for more than 20 years.

Extrapolating Q1 shipment figures by 4 and calling it a day is the laziest means of sales prediction ever.



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SKMBlake said:
super_etecoon said:
I've got a question...why do some people say "millions?" I'm pretty sure spanish would pluralize the number as well. Is this a thing for many languages not english?

Well it sure doesn't make sense to me the fact that you can say "millions" but have to say "XX million". It's like "here what you have to know about innumerable nouns" "here what you have to know about numerable nouns" "and here the numbers, where all numerable and innumerable nouns don't apply because we said so".

So would you also say 5 hundreds?  or 5 thousands?  



SpokenTruth said:
drinkandswim said:
I mean granted he was right if it wasn't for November and December where they sold probably around 10 million systems. Its kind of hard to predict a system will go from a 1 million global a month to 3.3 and 6+.

It's that hard when you are supposed to be the industries most well known video game retail sales analyst and you've studied quarterly sales trends for more than 20 years.

Extrapolating Q1 shipment figures by 4 and calling it a day is the laziest means of sales prediction ever.

I mean I agree it is lazy, but Smash and Pokémon weren't even announced yet.



Pachter is a troll. He knows that what he says is stupid and he says those stupid things because he loves to read his name. He is that much of an attention whore, further proved by having his own show on Gametrailers at some point.

His prefered target are Nintendo fans. That should be easy to figure out when you read through his report card and see his respective grades for PSVR and Switch predictions.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

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I think Pachter's projections regarding Nintendo are always suspect. I honestly don't even believe that he should still be an analyst because of his bias. He thinks of Nintendo more in regards to their "rabid fanboy fanbase" than as a company. It's very personal for him and he always likes to throw the Big N some shade. He sadly has to admit when he's wrong about Nintendo's success and gleefully celebrates their failures with an "I told you so" smirk. At best, this is no better than many of us here at VGC.

In fact, I know there are 30-40 posters here whose projections should be taken far more seriously. But it sure is fun to watch Pachter fail. I think that's the only reason the gaming press keeps him around.