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AsGryffynn said:
JRPGfan said:
UK trade with other nations =

EU makes up 60% of import trade, 55%+ export trade for the UK (indirect ties, and its higher than 55%).
US makes up 8% of import trade, 13% of export trade for the UK.

The EU is a huge part of trade for the UK.
I dont get why you would want to leave without a deal in place, this can cause huge impacts on the economy.

Same reason I want the US off the podium: it might be crap at the start, but depending on a single benefactor is never a good sign. I want to be able to say "well, I don't like it! F*** you!" and look for someone else. 

You realise that you cant just always go trade with other people right?
Others might not want the goods you sell, or not value them as much as your current partners do.
Also theres the logistics of it, some goods cant handle going half way around the world, if their processed in the UK, or might spoil on the trip.
This results in productiong moveing away from the UK (loss of jobs) and restructing of what it can trade/produce.

Overall its gonna have a impact, when you transition.

Thats before you have to factor in that in the EU theres alot of protections, that mean everyone that trades, do it on same terms.
In the US the UK will have to compete with lower wages, GMO crops, ect ect.

This will result in less gains pr item traded. (or lowered wages, so UK can compete)

The UK is gonna be alot poorer for its "right to choose, where it goes", because ironically the terms it had in the EU was pretty great.

Also the US had terms, when they proposed a trade deal.
From a position of strength, the US is gonna screw over the UK in any deal they make imo.

Last edited by JRPGfan - on 15 December 2019

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Bofferbrauer2 said:
Pyro as Bill said:
This was supposed to be one of the worst days in history for a PM and he just smashed the opposition.

Geoffrey Cox and Dom Cummings were supposed to be getting the chop before the day finished and yet both are on top of the world. The media and political commentators have no idea what world they're in.

This disgraceful, cowardly parliament isn't fit to sit. They have no honour.

They can try all the tricks they want. These Turkeys can't stop time and unfortunately for them, Christmas is Coming.

Once Boris wins the election, all the remainer bullshit will be repealed and Tony Blair's silly little court will be smashed so we can go back to real English Law instead of the meme judges and their brooches.

Now that's a big "if". And an even bigger if is to get any kind of majority with about 30% of the votes and some additional 10-15% from the Brexit party and DUP. The Tories rose to high 30's after Johnson got elected but are coming crashing down since he humiliated himself in Luxembourg, his failed Prorogation, not being able to win any votes in Parliament...

I do agree that the UK will leave without a Deal - but that's all due to being totally headless right now and no direction has a majority. Not No Deal (Tories and Brexit Party, maybe DUP), not Corbyn and his own version of a deal, not remain (LibDems, SNP, Sinn Fein, Green, Plaid Cymru). And a new election will just make it worse and solve nothing, as both the big parties loose a lot while the smaller ones win quite a bit, making the balance of powers even more even than they were before. So, still headless, still unable to do anything, let alone bring the country forward. It just brings the UK out of the EU since nobody is there to make a deal or get it through parliament since it's so fractured on the theme of Brexit.

All the things the media/political analysts thought hurt Boris actually boosted him.

It's been clear since October that Boris was going to get a huge majority.



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JRPGfan said:
AsGryffynn said:

Same reason I want the US off the podium: it might be crap at the start, but depending on a single benefactor is never a good sign. I want to be able to say "well, I don't like it! F*** you!" and look for someone else. 

You realise that you cant just always go trade with other people right?
Others might not want the goods you sell, or not value them as much as your current partners do.
Also theres the logistics of it, some goods cant handle going half way around the world, if their processed in the UK, or might spoil on the trip.
This results in productiong moveing away from the UK (loss of jobs) and restructing of what it can trade/produce.

Overall its gonna have a impact, when you transition.

Thats before you have to factor in that in the EU theres alot of protections, that mean everyone that trades, do it on same terms.
In the US the UK will have to compete with lower wages, GMO crops, ect ect.

This will result in less gains pr item traded. (or lowered wages, so UK can compete)

The UK is gonna be alot poorer for its "right to choose, where it goes", because ironically the terms it had in the EU was pretty great.

Also the US had terms, when they proposed a trade deal.
From a position of strength, the US is gonna screw over the UK in any deal they make imo.

The idea was that trade partners would only constitute an small part of trade, so that if one partner was unfavorable, you could just swap them with another one with little effect. In other words, many small partners instead of monolithic trading blocks. 



Epic was right all along... 

AsGryffynn said:
JRPGfan said:

Also the US had terms, when they proposed a trade deal.
From a position of strength, the US is gonna screw over the UK in any deal they make imo.

The idea was that trade partners would only constitute an small part of trade, so that if one partner was unfavorable, you could just swap them with another one with little effect. In other words, many small partners instead of monolithic trading blocks. 

The problem is the rest of the world doesnt play by those rules.
Everyone thats anyone, is in a tradeing block.

The only ones not in one, are small crappy nations that ll then get bent over, in any trade deals they do.
The reason the tradeing blocks have members, is because it works to your benefit to be in one.
You make deals from positions of strength, through unity.



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JRPGfan said:
AsGryffynn said:

The idea was that trade partners would only constitute an small part of trade, so that if one partner was unfavorable, you could just swap them with another one with little effect. In other words, many small partners instead of monolithic trading blocks. 

The problem is the rest of the world doesnt play by those rules.
Everyone thats anyone, is in a tradeing block.

The only ones not in one, are small crappy nations that ll then get bent over, in any trade deals they do.
The reason the tradeing blocks have members, is because it works to your benefit to be in one.
You make deals from positions of strength, through unity.

To elaborate on this, just take a look onto this picture:

Only the countries in gray are not part of a trade bloc, and even then, Western Sahara is technically part of Morocco.

As you can see, the only countries without the trade blocs are either totally dependent on their neighbors anyway (Mongolia), are under severe sanctions (Iran, North Korea), have no stable government (Somalia), too new (South Sudan), or either have not much to trade for or are too insignificant so they are left alone (what's left). UK will join the gray area when they left the EU and have to deal with those colored blocs for the most part, which united are generally much bigger than the UK and can therefor set the terms of a trade deal.



Bofferbrauer2 said:

To elaborate on this, just take a look onto this picture:

(map)

Only the countries in gray are not part of a trade bloc, and even then, Western Sahara is technically part of Morocco.

As you can see, the only countries without the trade blocs are either totally dependent on their neighbors anyway (Mongolia), are under severe sanctions (Iran, North Korea), have no stable government (Somalia), too new (South Sudan), or either have not much to trade for or are too insignificant so they are left alone (what's left). UK will join the gray area when they left the EU and have to deal with those colored blocs for the most part, which united are generally much bigger than the UK and can therefor set the terms of a trade deal.

I think the most likely result is that the UK will be able to get arrangements similar to Switzerland and Norway who are wealthy states without being EU members.

The bigger question mark is if the UK will remain the UK or if Scotland breaks free.



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RolStoppable said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

To elaborate on this, just take a look onto this picture:

(map)

Only the countries in gray are not part of a trade bloc, and even then, Western Sahara is technically part of Morocco.

As you can see, the only countries without the trade blocs are either totally dependent on their neighbors anyway (Mongolia), are under severe sanctions (Iran, North Korea), have no stable government (Somalia), too new (South Sudan), or either have not much to trade for or are too insignificant so they are left alone (what's left). UK will join the gray area when they left the EU and have to deal with those colored blocs for the most part, which united are generally much bigger than the UK and can therefor set the terms of a trade deal.

I think the most likely result is that the UK will be able to get arrangements similar to Switzerland and Norway who are wealthy states without being EU members.

The bigger question mark is if the UK will remain the UK or if Scotland breaks free.

Keep in mind that a lot of those agreements that Switzerland and Norway have are from their EFTA Membership, and especially from a time where the EFTA was much bigger than it is today. However, the UK could rejoin the EFTA (UK was part of the EFTA before joining the EU, as did Portugal, Austria, Denmark, Sweden and Finland), as while they do have a trade policy and joint agreements, the EFTA also allows member states to have separate bilateral agreements with other countries/trade blocs.



RolStoppable said:

I think the most likely result is that the UK will be able to get arrangements similar to Switzerland and Norway who are wealthy states without being EU members.

Boris has already said we have no intention of forcing the country to align with EU standards. Given how only ~6% of UK companies export to the continent, this makes complete sense. That means EFTA is off the table. He also made it law that a clean break, World Trade Brexit is back on the table (aka 'No Deal') if there's no agreement with the EU by the end of next year.

Merkel and Macron seemed to be so concerned by Boris' recent statements that we're being used in the same sentence as China and the US when it comes to economic competitors/rivals to the EU.

Funny how everyone is now starting to see the trade advantages of Brexit for the UK once we got rid of politicians who only wanted BRINO.

The bigger question mark is if the UK will remain the UK or if Scotland breaks free.

'Break free', lol. Concern trolling is fun but the reality is that most Scots don't give a fuck about the EU. Most of England wasn't that concerned either until the ruling class thought it was a good idea to ignore our vote. Ignoring 4 votes where Brexit won was too much to the point that even the North went blue.

Scotland budgeted it's independence on oil @$120 a barrel and still lost 55.3% to 44.7%. It's currently at $60. A ref held tomorrow would be 60-40 minimum.

As a member of the EU you should be pleased. England freed from the drag of Northern Ireland and Scotland (and Wales) would be even more competitive.

Last edited by Pyro as Bill - on 26 December 2019

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Pyro as Bill said:
RolStoppable said:

I think the most likely result is that the UK will be able to get arrangements similar to Switzerland and Norway who are wealthy states without being EU members.

Boris has already said we have no intention of forcing the country to align with EU standards. Given how only ~6% of UK companies export to the continent, this makes complete sense. That means EFTA is off the table. He also made it law that a clean break, World Trade Brexit is back on the table (aka 'No Deal') if there's no agreement with the EU by the end of next year.

Merkel and Macron seemed to be so concerned by Boris' recent statements that we're being used in the same sentence as China and the US when it comes to economic competitors/rivals to the EU.

Funny how everyone is now starting to see the trade advantages of Brexit for the UK once we got rid of politicians who only wanted BRINO.

The bigger question mark is if the UK will remain the UK or if Scotland breaks free.

'Break free', lol. Concern trolling is fun but the reality is that most Scots don't give a fuck about the EU. Most of England wasn't that concerned either until the ruling class thought it was a good idea to ignore our vote. Ignoring 4 votes where Brexit won was too much to the point that even the North went blue.

Scotland budgeted it's independence on oil @$120 a barrel and still lost 55.3% to 44.7%. It's currently at $60. A ref held tomorrow would be 60-40 minimum.

As a member of the EU you should be pleased. England freed from the drag of Northern Ireland and Scotland (and Wales) would be even more competitive.

They lost the referendum because they would also leave the EU if they left the UK at the time, and nobody wanted that. That's the main reason why that referendum failed. But now that the UK is leaving anyway the only thing really in the way of scottish independence is Johnson as he doesn't want to allow a vote.