Forums - Sales Discussion - November NPD 2018 Thread

super_etecoon said:
Intrinsic said:

I think you both are missing something

https://venturebeat.com/2018/12/18/november-2018-npd-nintendo-switch-outsells-everything/

What are we missing?  Or what am I missing, to be more accurate?

I like how your own link says this "For instance, PlayStation 4 was the top-selling console by units."

hehe :)



"Donald Trump is the greatest president that god has ever created" - Trumpstyle

6x master league achiever in starcraft2

Beaten Sigrun on God of war mode

Beaten DOOM ultra-nightmare with NO endless ammo-rune, 2x super shotgun and no decoys on ps4 pro.

1-0 against Grubby in Wc3 frozen throne ladder!!

Around the Network
RolStoppable said:
DonFerrari said:

Yes, so far it doesn't seem like they are competing for the same costumers.

There is definitely overlap between Switch and PS4 ownership. The catch is that a PS4 purchase doesn't rule out a Switch purchase like it rules out an Xbox One purchase. And vice versa, a Switch purchase doesn't rule out the purchase of either a PS4 or Xbox One.

That's something that people should keep in mind when they wonder if the next PS and Xbox consoles will impact Switch negatively. Hint: They won't.

How can you be so sure that PS5/Xbox Two won't "cannibalize" Switch sales? Do you have definite evidence that cannibals are extinct? Because just over a year ago there were several people who believed that cannibalization would claim the lives of many PS4/Xbox One consoles.



"The rumours of my death have been greatly exaggerated."

- Single-player Game

Trumpstyle said:
CGI-Quality said:

~snip

Yep, nope. You predicting it will sell close to PS4, no chance. If it can't even beat PS4 this year, Switch has no chance coming close to life-time sales of PS4. Switch will probably peak this year, like 3ds peaked first year and wii second year, Nintendo consoles peaks very early because of no 3rd-party titles.

I expect Switch sales start to dwindle next year and if they don't release a Switch Mini soon without a station dock the sales will start to fizzle very quickly. Life-time sales will be between 60-70m and the biggest reason for this will be price. I don't believe Nintendo can hit that 99-149$ price point nintendo 3ds manage to do.

Switch won't dwindle next year. 

 

manuelogando40 said: 
KingofTrolls said: 
So did PS4 won in units sold or no ?

Could be. Npd doesn't give figures since moths ago. 

Figures you read here are from Era. And they are not accurate. 

If they aren't accurate, explain how that is.



                                                                                                             

WhatATimeToBeAlive said:
RolStoppable said:

There is definitely overlap between Switch and PS4 ownership. The catch is that a PS4 purchase doesn't rule out a Switch purchase like it rules out an Xbox One purchase. And vice versa, a Switch purchase doesn't rule out the purchase of either a PS4 or Xbox One.

That's something that people should keep in mind when they wonder if the next PS and Xbox consoles will impact Switch negatively. Hint: They won't.

How can you be so sure that PS5/Xbox Two won't "cannibalize" Switch sales? Do you have definite evidence that cannibals are extinct? Because just over a year ago there were several people who believed that cannibalization would claim the lives of many PS4/Xbox One consoles.

You are making things up. Very few, in any, people thought Switch would hurt PS4/XBO sales. It was more of the opposite,

"How can Switch succeed? It's the same price as the more powerful PS4/XBO and doesn't have any of the big 3rd party games"



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

Trumpstyle said:
CGI-Quality said:

I'll take off the mod coat for just a sec.

Let's look at it this way ~ Switch has breathed new life into this game. Decemeber's numbers are going to be MASSIVE for it. Period. Dot.

Realistically, 80 million is the bare minimum of final lifetime totals. Treat it like a handheld regarding sales (its docking feature is the icing). I predict that it will sell between 95 and 115 million, give or take. A bit behind the PS4, but definitely ahead of the 3DS. I want all of its doubters of 80+ million final unit totals to consider that this isn't the Wii. It shouldn't have that kind of hard drop off because the carrying weight of the Wii's particular audience are not the people jumping through hoops for Smash. These are core, dedicated fans of the series and many of them WILL buy a Switch for just this one game. The PS5/Xbox Next will have an impact, no doubt, but there's nothing currently suggesting that this thing will just taper off and crawl to 80 million and the Switch has much more pulling power than the Wii, in my eyes.

2019 will be a better indicator of long term success. Just think about all of the variables to reach your final conclusions.

Yep, nope. You predicting it will sell close to PS4, no chance. If it can't even beat PS4 this year, Switch has no chance coming close to life-time sales of PS4. Switch will probably peak this year, like 3ds peaked first year and wii second year, Nintendo consoles peaks very early because of no 3rd-party titles.

I expect Switch sales start to dwindle next year and if they don't release a Switch Mini soon without a station dock the sales will start to fizzle very quickly. Life-time sales will be between 60-70m and the biggest reason for this will be price. I don't believe Nintendo can hit that 99-149$ price point nintendo 3ds manage to do.

Switch is not the 3DS...



Around the Network
CGI-Quality said:
Trumpstyle said:

Yep, nope. You predicting it will sell close to PS4, no chance. If it can't even beat PS4 this year, Switch has no chance coming close to life-time sales of PS4. Switch will probably peak this year, like 3ds peaked first year and wii second year, Nintendo consoles peaks very early because of no 3rd-party titles.

I expect Switch sales start to dwindle next year and if they don't release a Switch Mini soon without a station dock the sales will start to fizzle very quickly. Life-time sales will be between 60-70m and the biggest reason for this will be price. I don't believe Nintendo can hit that 99-149$ price point nintendo 3ds manage to do.

Switch won't dwindle next year. 

 

manuelogando40 said: 

Could be. Npd doesn't give figures since moths ago. 

Figures you read here are from Era. And they are not accurate. 

If they aren't accurate, explain how that is.

Ask Matt piscatella why they don't give the sales figures in the monthly report. All we know is that the 3 consoles sold more than 1.3 million each.



"Every day I look in the mirror and ask myself: "If today were the last day of my life, would I want to do what I am about to do today?". If the answer is no for too many days in a row, I know I need to change something"

Steve Jobs

zorg1000 said:
WhatATimeToBeAlive said:

How can you be so sure that PS5/Xbox Two won't "cannibalize" Switch sales? Do you have definite evidence that cannibals are extinct? Because just over a year ago there were several people who believed that cannibalization would claim the lives of many PS4/Xbox One consoles.

You are making things up. Very few, in any, people thought Switch would hurt PS4/XBO sales. It was more of the opposite,

"How can Switch succeed? It's the same price as the more powerful PS4/XBO and doesn't have any of the big 3rd party games"

I am not making things up. Cannibalization was mentioned several times last year.

Your second statement is most likely true, but given what happened to Wii U, GameCube and N64, it was reasonable to have doubts about Switch succes. But I don't know where those "Switch is going to cannibalize PS4/Xbox One sales" statements were based on.



"The rumours of my death have been greatly exaggerated."

- Single-player Game

manuelogando40 said:
CGI-Quality said:

If they aren't accurate, explain how that is.

Ask Matt piscatella why they don't give the sales figures in the monthly report. All we know is that the 3 consoles sold more than 1.3 million each.

So, ultimately, you are the one guessing. Got it. :P

As for what is known, we have the right figures and Mat is on Era. If the numbers were wrong, he would have said so.



                                                                                                             

Benji-Sales
The Nintendo Switch is currently tracking to have its biggest week in sales since its release
And that's with Super Saturday still looming on the horizon

and his ERA comment
"The December gap is going to be........WOW"



CGI-Quality said:
manuelogando40 said:

Ask Matt piscatella why they don't give the sales figures in the monthly report. All we know is that the 3 consoles sold more than 1.3 million each.

So, ultimately, you are the one guessing. Got it. :P

As for what is known, we have the right figures and Mat is on Era. If the numbers were wrong, he would have said so.

"we have the right figures and Mat is on Era. If the numbers were wrong, he would have said so".

In other words. People write an approximate number. If Piscatella don't say anything, then they are the correct sales.

Enough for me. I change my mind. You have the correct figures. 

 

 

 

 

 



"Every day I look in the mirror and ask myself: "If today were the last day of my life, would I want to do what I am about to do today?". If the answer is no for too many days in a row, I know I need to change something"

Steve Jobs