Quantcast
November NPD 2018 Thread

Forums - Sales Discussion - November NPD 2018 Thread

HoangNhatAnh said:

zorg1000 said: 

But when did they do that with the 3DS? You mean New 3DS? That had like 4 or 5 exclusives in its ~4 years on the market. Hardly enough to consider it a new platform.

If they release a Switch+ in 2021 it will likely be something along the lines of New 3DS or PS4 Pro, a mid-gen upgrade that has a handful of exclusives at the absolute most.

Well, actually, it is not just 4-5 exclusives, big or small:

https://www.neogaf.com/threads/games-that-are-exclusive-enhanced-on-the-new-3ds.1177455/ 

That link isnt working for me.

But if you're including digital only titles than we also need to factor in DSi, it had a whole bunch of exclusive digital titles but nobody has ever called it a separate platform from DS.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

Around the Network

NPD has Switch as the top seller by the month was very close.

https://nintendoeverything.com/november-2018-npd-switch-outsells-ps4-and-xbox-one-moves-over-1-3-million-units/?fbclid=IwAR26_z782ZC6JoNRPLziOvjX_O2-eV50JCo41mIORCA6uQYk5mcZCv5NG1Q



Wyrdness said:

NPD has Switch as the top seller by the month was very close.

https://nintendoeverything.com/november-2018-npd-switch-outsells-ps4-and-xbox-one-moves-over-1-3-million-units/?fbclid=IwAR26_z782ZC6JoNRPLziOvjX_O2-eV50JCo41mIORCA6uQYk5mcZCv5NG1Q

That is dollar sales, not units. 

"Nintendo Switch outsold the PlayStation 4 and Xbox One in terms of dollar sales"

A little misleading, I know.



                                                                                                             

CGI-Quality said:
Wyrdness said:

NPD has Switch as the top seller by the month was very close.

https://nintendoeverything.com/november-2018-npd-switch-outsells-ps4-and-xbox-one-moves-over-1-3-million-units/?fbclid=IwAR26_z782ZC6JoNRPLziOvjX_O2-eV50JCo41mIORCA6uQYk5mcZCv5NG1Q

That is dollar sales, not units. 

"Nintendo Switch outsold the PlayStation 4 and Xbox One in terms of dollar sales"

A little misleading, I know.

Ahh I see.



Intrinsic said:

Thanks.

And this has always been the basis of my argument. I have been saying the same thin since before the switch was released. 

My doubts on how well the NS can sell on nintendo software alone. And this is also the reason I set the 3DS as my ceiling because that is the last time a nintendo platform has sold that many units mostly on nintendo software alone and that is the basis of my 75M to 80M (basically sell as much as the 3DS) prediction. 

Initially price was also a factor but I tossed that out the window when I saw how well it was selling a $299.

I appreciate the amount of information you have shed addressing my specific theory and I can't dispute what you have said. But I do like to know what you think about my user base overlapping theory though, cause its what I feel is the primary inhibitor (if it turns out to be the case) of nintendo software alone driving sales to 80M and beyond.

Well, there is obviously overlap. The attach rates for SMO and MK8D are over 50%, and BotW is about 45%. At least some Switch owners have to own at least two of those three games (I personally have all three). It's also conceivable that at least some Switch owners got it for some third-party title (like maybe Bayonetta fans waiting for the third game). But the overlap can't be perfect, and those Nintendo titles clearly must be spread out, because not all Nintendo fans like all Nintendo franchises equally. And with non-Nintendo titles not having huge success on the Switch (Octopath being the only million-seller to date made by a third party and not featuring Nintendo characters... well, maybe also FIFA 18 if you count VGC's numbers) and representing maybe at most a quarter of all software sales on the system, I can't imagine there are many Switch owners that bought one purely for third-party titles. But without any solid numbers (which there never will be) we can only speculate. With the available evidence, though, I think a massive supermajority of Switch owners bought one with the express intent of wanting to play one or more Nintendo titles. Nintendo-published software has been the backbone of their systems for a good while now.

As to how much the Switch can sell, well, that's hard to say. Some people are quite bullish, others more bearish. It's outpacing the 3DS by a significant margin in the U.S. and Europe, but trailing it in Japan (where it's selling at levels more befitting a handheld in that market, but with the ¥30,000 price tag being a hindrance). Personally, based on what I've seen of the number so far as they compare to previous Nintendo systems, I think we can expect maybe 30-35M in the U.S., around 75% of that in Europe, at least 20M in Japan (its ability to catch up to the 3DS's 24M+ dependent on when it can get its price down), and maybe 10M at most in smaller markets. 80M seems like a good lower limit. But I don't see it hitting the 100M mark. Maybe 90-95M for the upper limit.



Around the Network
zorg1000 said:
HoangNhatAnh said:

Well, actually, it is not just 4-5 exclusives, big or small:

https://www.neogaf.com/threads/games-that-are-exclusive-enhanced-on-the-new-3ds.1177455/ 

That link isnt working for me.

But if you're including digital only titles than we also need to factor in DSi, it had a whole bunch of exclusive digital titles but nobody has ever called it a separate platform from DS.

Correct, but i only talk about it's games, i wouldn't call it a separate platform either. Even DSi with over 200 exclusive DSiwares can't be called a new gen. I only try to correct you about the number of the games that can be played only on New 3DS



Intrinsic said:
zorg1000 said:

I agree about GBC, it honestly should have been a different generation due to the huge amount of exclusives it had but New 3DS was just a few so I would argue strongly against it being a separate generation.

I dont see why they wouldnt support both a $199 Switch Mini & $299 Switch Plus at the same time.

They supported a $129 2DS & $199 New 3DS XL at the same time.

Sony is supporting a $299 PS4 Slim & $399 PS4 Pro at the same time.

Microsoft is supporting a $299 Xbox One S & $499 Xbox One X at the same time.

Well you have a point there. They have also supported multiple platforms before.

I think my main concern is that I dont see them being able to drop the price of the NS by too much. There is just a lot going on in that package. And the only thing they can really realistically price reduce is the cost of the processor. Believe it or not at some point it will actually cost them more having 4GB of ram than opting for say 6GB/8GB being that its currently using 2 x 2GB modules and probably in that configuration to take advantage of the dual channel bandwidth gains.

The overall NS form factor is one of those rare things that it would be actually cheaper (aka keeping the price the same) to make it more powerful at the same price than try and make a cheaper version. Like at some point sourcing 2GB LPDDR4 modules will be much harder than just getting 3GB/4GB modules. And don't forget.... Nvidia. They also can't do much abut the screen or the joycons r reduce the available storage..etc.

Dnt see what they are going to cut out to make it cheaper.

All these make me lean towards a more powerful NS to replace the existing model. The kinda just have to do it. There are obvious design choices that were made when making the NS, unfortunately those choices doesn't leave much wiggle room for price reductions.

I recall during the Q&A of an investor meeting someone mentioned how Wii U barely had any price reductions over its lifespan and if that would happen with Switch. I believe they responded that it was due to the low sales volume that prevented price reductions for Wii U and Switch was designed to come down in price over time.

I'm no tech expert so I cant really go into detail about what they will do to get costs down but I am positive they will get it down somehow.

NES launched at $149, it came down to $89

Gameboy launched at $89, it came down to $49

SNES launched at $199, it came down to $79

N64 launched at $199, it came down to $99

GC launched at $199, it came down to $99

DS launch at $149, it came down to $99

Wii launched at $249, it came down to $99

3DS launched at $249, it came down to $79

 

With the exception of GBA & Wii U, all of Nintendo's handheld & home consoles have on average reduced their price by half over their lives so I fully expect Switch to get down to $199 in the next couple years and possibly as low as $149 near the end of its run.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

I just want to say that Shadow reminds me of TheSource in early VGChatz days. Their dedication to these charts are unparalleled.
Thank you for doing this every month even though you're not getting the recognition you deserve. I personally do love and enjoy them.



CGI-Quality said:
Wyrdness said:

NPD has Switch as the top seller by the month was very close.

https://nintendoeverything.com/november-2018-npd-switch-outsells-ps4-and-xbox-one-moves-over-1-3-million-units/?fbclid=IwAR26_z782ZC6JoNRPLziOvjX_O2-eV50JCo41mIORCA6uQYk5mcZCv5NG1Q

That is dollar sales, not units. 

"Nintendo Switch outsold the PlayStation 4 and Xbox One in terms of dollar sales"

A little misleading, I know.

Would not that mean the Switch sold quite a bit more, unit-wise, given it costs the least?



I describe myself as a little dose of toxic masculinity.

Jumpin said:
CGI-Quality said:

That is dollar sales, not units. 

"Nintendo Switch outsold the PlayStation 4 and Xbox One in terms of dollar sales"

A little misleading, I know.

Would not that mean the Switch sold quite a bit more, unit-wise, given it costs the least?

I think PS4 had cheaper deals which may have affected the revenue Sony Earned.



Pocky Lover Boy!