By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close

Forums - Sales Discussion - November NPD 2018 Thread

zorg1000 on 19 December 2018
RolStoppable said:
DonFerrari said:

Yes, so far it doesn't seem like they are competing for the same costumers.

There is definitely overlap between Switch and PS4 ownership. The catch is that a PS4 purchase doesn't rule out a Switch purchase like it rules out an Xbox One purchase. And vice versa, a Switch purchase doesn't rule out the purchase of either a PS4 or Xbox One.

That's something that people should keep in mind when they wonder if the next PS and Xbox consoles will impact Switch negatively. Hint: They won't.

Especially when you consider that they will be servicing completely different demographics and price points by then.

The next PS & XB console will likely launch during the 2020 holiday season, so 2021 will be their first full year, in the $399-499 price range.

At that point Switch will likely have a revision or two with an entry level price of $199 (perhaps a premium sku as well that maintains the $299 price tag).



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

Around the Network
DonFerrari on 19 December 2018
RolStoppable said:
DonFerrari said:

Yes, so far it doesn't seem like they are competing for the same costumers.

There is definitely overlap between Switch and PS4 ownership. The catch is that a PS4 purchase doesn't rule out a Switch purchase like it rules out an Xbox One purchase. And vice versa, a Switch purchase doesn't rule out the purchase of either a PS4 or Xbox One.

That's something that people should keep in mind when they wonder if the next PS and Xbox consoles will impact Switch negatively. Hint: They won't.

Yep I expect impact but minimal.

And sure there are some overlap, but considering the 3 years difference to market I would say most would rather have the two consoles than chose just one if they have interest in both. You can't play most 3rd parties on Switch (besides Sony exclusives if you mind them) and you won't play Nintendo games on PS4, so the reason to consider any of the 2 are quite different to see the overlap making one exclude another being minimal.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

KazumaKiryu on 20 December 2018
Ryng_Tolu said:

NPD Data:

Out on December 13h retail data, overall public results out on 18th December. Until then, you can predict hardware sales

Leaks:

PS4 ~ 1478K
NSW ~ 1356K
XB1 ~ 1342K

Red Dead Redemption 2 ~1.5 million (retail alone)

the xbox also in the home country last place, interesting. PS1 Number 1. But the sales are good for all.

And In january "kingdom hearts 3" and "resident evil 2 remake" will strengthen the ps4-console. so many masterpieces, wonderful.



Intrinsic on 20 December 2018
Bandorr said:

Reading this it sounds like PS4 "won" NPD.
More importantly it makes the 24th month - two years - that Xbox has "won" an NPD.
With the last one being November of 2016.

I find that interesting because I would have guessed(and probably did actually) that wouldn't happen. I expected the switch and ps4 to "steal" from each other having so many niche(ish) games in common. Instead it seems they actually are amplifying each other.

Instead of splitting the vote so to speak, they are multiplying each other. Instead of say going from 1.00 to .75, they are instead both at 1.25. Or at least that is how it feels.

I just didn't see that happening.

I think its always been known that the NS isn't competing in the same space that the PS4/XB1 does. This was most evident in 2017. And I dare say nintendo es out f their way to make sure this is always the case.

RolStoppable said:
DonFerrari said:

Yes, so far it doesn't seem like they are competing for the same costumers.

There is definitely overlap between Switch and PS4 ownership. The catch is that a PS4 purchase doesn't rule out a Switch purchase like it rules out an Xbox One purchase. And vice versa, a Switch purchase doesn't rule out the purchase of either a PS4 or Xbox One.

That's something that people should keep in mind when they wonder if the next PS and Xbox consoles will impact Switch negatively. Hint: They won't.

I wouldnt go as far as say impact switch negatively but the switch doesn't exist in a bubble.

Mindshare and media coverage is also very important. And for most of 2020 all that any media publication would be talking about will be the PS5 and XB4. Their renewed marketing push for their new upcoming consoles will dominate TV and ads. Those will be the new "hot item" for the holidays... etc. You can't really think all that will have zero effect on the NS. This is not saying that the people that buy those new consoles won't maybe one day still buy the NS, but the focus of the conversation will change for a while come 2020.  



zorg1000 on 20 December 2018
Intrinsic said:
Bandorr said:

Reading this it sounds like PS4 "won" NPD.
More importantly it makes the 24th month - two years - that Xbox has "won" an NPD.
With the last one being November of 2016.

I find that interesting because I would have guessed(and probably did actually) that wouldn't happen. I expected the switch and ps4 to "steal" from each other having so many niche(ish) games in common. Instead it seems they actually are amplifying each other.

Instead of splitting the vote so to speak, they are multiplying each other. Instead of say going from 1.00 to .75, they are instead both at 1.25. Or at least that is how it feels.

I just didn't see that happening.

I think its always been known that the NS isn't competing in the same space that the PS4/XB1 does. This was most evident in 2017. And I dare say nintendo es out f their way to make sure this is always the case.

RolStoppable said:

There is definitely overlap between Switch and PS4 ownership. The catch is that a PS4 purchase doesn't rule out a Switch purchase like it rules out an Xbox One purchase. And vice versa, a Switch purchase doesn't rule out the purchase of either a PS4 or Xbox One.

That's something that people should keep in mind when they wonder if the next PS and Xbox consoles will impact Switch negatively. Hint: They won't.

I wouldnt go as far as say impact switch negatively but the switch doesn't exist in a bubble.

Mindshare and media coverage is also very important. And for most of 2020 all that any media publication would be talking about will be the PS5 and XB4. Their renewed marketing push for their new upcoming consoles will dominate TV and ads. Those will be the new "hot item" for the holidays... etc. You can't really think all that will have zero effect on the NS. This is not saying that the people that buy those new consoles won't maybe one day still buy the NS, but the focus of the conversation will change for a while come 2020.  


Playstation 4 Pro-Nov 2016

Nintendo Switch-March 2017

Xbox One X-Nov 2017

Switch released right in between the mid-gen upgrades for PS4/XBO and they have had no noticeable effect on Switch and vice versa.

 

PS5/XB4 are likely coming in late 2020 which is ~3.5 years after the Switch launch and should be right around the time Switch gets it's own mid-gen upgrade (3DS, PS4, XBO all got 3-4 years after launch).

This should help negate any potential decline caused by the new PS/XB consoles.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

Around the Network
Kerotan on 20 December 2018
Bandorr said:

Reading this it sounds like PS4 "won" NPD.
More importantly it makes the 24th month - two years - that Xbox has "won" an NPD.
With the last one being November of 2016.

I find that interesting because I would have guessed(and probably did actually) that wouldn't happen. I expected the switch and ps4 to "steal" from each other having so many niche(ish) games in common. Instead it seems they actually are amplifying each other.

Instead of splitting the vote so to speak, they are multiplying each other. Instead of say going from 1.00 to .75, they are instead both at 1.25. Or at least that is how it feels.

I just didn't see that happening.

WOW so 2 years and no NPD win for xbox in it's strongest territory. That's incredible. I wonder when it wins an NPD again. 



Intrinsic on 20 December 2018
zorg1000 said:


Playstation 4 Pro-Nov 2016

Nintendo Switch-March 2017

Xbox One X-Nov 2017

Switch released right in between the mid-gen upgrades for PS4/XBO and they have had no noticeable effect on Switch and vice versa.

 

PS5/XB4 are likely coming in late 2020 which is ~3.5 years after the Switch launch and should be right around the time Switch gets it's own mid-gen upgrade (3DS, PS4, XBO all got 3-4 years after launch).

This should help negate any potential decline caused by the new PS/XB consoles.

But its not the same thing.

Those Mid gen upgrades you speak of are really just more of the same thing. Same old 3/4 year old consoles under the hood. Same library and family of games of which the NS also shared.

The media circus around a new console spearheading a new generation is a lot bigger than what was around upgraded consoles in an already 3+ year old generation. And there will be two of them. 

Between the PS4 and XB1 they had 7M+ (supply constrained) sales in their first 6 weeks. Those upgrades probably achieved less than 2M sales combined in their  first 6 weeks if aligned. Very different thing.

I dont think a mid gen upgrade can in anyway shape or form be compared to new hardware. Much less two of them. Like the whole industry/media will be talking about everything PS5/XB4 related for a big chunk of 2020. This is akin to games shifting their release date so they don't launch around games like RDR2 even if they are very different games. 



zorg1000 on 20 December 2018
Intrinsic said:
zorg1000 said:


Playstation 4 Pro-Nov 2016

Nintendo Switch-March 2017

Xbox One X-Nov 2017

Switch released right in between the mid-gen upgrades for PS4/XBO and they have had no noticeable effect on Switch and vice versa.

 

PS5/XB4 are likely coming in late 2020 which is ~3.5 years after the Switch launch and should be right around the time Switch gets it's own mid-gen upgrade (3DS, PS4, XBO all got 3-4 years after launch).

This should help negate any potential decline caused by the new PS/XB consoles.

But its not the same thing.

Those Mid gen upgrades you speak of are really just more of the same thing. Same old 3/4 year old consoles under the hood. Same library and family of games of which the NS also shared.

The media circus around a new console spearheading a new generation is a lot bigger than what was around upgraded consoles in an already 3+ year old generation. And there will be two of them. 

Between the PS4 and XB1 they had 7M+ (supply constrained) sales in their first 6 weeks. Those upgrades probably achieved less than 2M sales combined in their  first 6 weeks if aligned. Very different thing.

I dont think a mid gen upgrade can in anyway shape or form be compared to new hardware. Much less two of them. Like the whole industry/media will be talking about everything PS5/XB4 related for a big chunk of 2020. This is akin to games shifting their release date so they don't launch around games like RDR2 even if they are very different games. 

I agree that the new consoles will obviously be a much bigger deal than the mid-gen upgrades but this is just an example of history repeating itself.

About two years ago when Switch was revealed, it was a common argument that the new upgrades would keep mindshare away from Switch and on top of that big 3rd party titles releasing around its launch like Resident Evil 7, For Honor, Ghost Recon Wildlands, Mass Effect Andromeda & Injustice 2 were all skipping it and that would hurt it because Nintendo games alone cant make a system succeed.

 

These are the exact same arguments that are being used for why Switch sales will suffer once PS5/XB4 release.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

I LOVE GIGGS on 20 December 2018

Any word about software for the month other than RDR and CoD?



Miyamotoo on 21 December 2018
Kerotan said:
Bandorr said:

Reading this it sounds like PS4 "won" NPD.
More importantly it makes the 24th month - two years - that Xbox has "won" an NPD.
With the last one being November of 2016.

I find that interesting because I would have guessed(and probably did actually) that wouldn't happen. I expected the switch and ps4 to "steal" from each other having so many niche(ish) games in common. Instead it seems they actually are amplifying each other.

Instead of splitting the vote so to speak, they are multiplying each other. Instead of say going from 1.00 to .75, they are instead both at 1.25. Or at least that is how it feels.

I just didn't see that happening.

WOW so 2 years and no NPD win for xbox in it's strongest territory. That's incredible. I wonder when it wins an NPD again. 

I dont see nothing strange, XB1 globally is selling worse than Xbox 360 in same time period while PS4 and Switch are selling much better than PS3/360 in same time period, and XB1 in US compared to rest of world sales have quite stronger sales in any case.