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Forums - Sales Discussion - PS4 Won October NPD (PS4 > NS > XBO)

Kerotan said:
RJ_Sizzle said:
Xbox had a LOT of promotions last month too, some the likes I've never seen with consoles and they still came up short. At least they're up YoY though.

Microsoft always go hard with the promos whenever a big ps4 pusher launches. It must really eat into their profit margins having to aggressively promote the xbox everytime a game like spiderman or rdr2 launches that sells ps4 without price promotions. 

Yeah. I kind of don't see the point in it. They're only buying their own market share which defeats the purpose. Everyone knows that the split for RDR2 is going to be hugely in favor of PS4 anyway.



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Kerotan said:

They just never stop underestimating the ps4 do they. Year 5 it's still full steam ahead year 6 will be the same. It has sold well at 299 all year. The console could sell for the next 5 years if they wanted. Only thing stopping it is the ps5. 

Yup. PS4 is that console that for some reason everyone wants to underestimate. Like they just can't accept that people actually want a PS4.

I don't see it pulling these kinda numbers next year though, especially when rumors of a PS5 are in full swing or even an announcement. Then its sales will be tied to pricing alone. And how low can sony really go. 



Megiddo said:
JRPGfan said:

Prediction tool:
1 - NS : 1.0
2 - PS4 : 0.26
3 - XBO : 0.24


What actually happend:
1 - PS4: 1.34
2 - Switch: 1
3 - Xbox One: 0.8

You're using current (pre Black Friday) November ratios for the prediction tool, not October's.

See the actual October numbers here: http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8912072

The tool was off, but not nearly as much as you are showing here.

oh that actually makes it seem alot better.

1 - NS : 1.0
2 - XBO :  0.78
3 - PS4 : 0.66

Stilll it got the order totally wrong... PS4 was actually #1 not #3.



Sh1nn said: 
PS4 ~340K
NS ~255K
XBO ~226K

Thanks for doing the NPD thread Sh1nn. Would you please consider including an archive in the OP?

In the past, it was always easy and quick to find all numbers thanks to Boutros' archive that was included in OP of every single NPD thread.

Boutros said: 

NPD threads archive

2018: JanuaryFebruaryMarchAprilMayJuneJulyAugust, September, October
2017: JanuaryFebruaryMarchAprilMayJuneJulyAugustSeptemberOctoberNovemberDecember
2016: JanuaryFebruaryMarchAprilMayJuneJulyAugustSeptemberOctoberNovemberDecember
2015: JanuaryFebruaryMarchAprilMayJuneJulyAugustSeptemberOctoberNovemberDecember
2014: JanuaryFebruaryMarchAprilMayJuneJulyAugustSeptemberOctoberNovemberDecember
2013: JanuaryFebruaryMarchAprilMayJuneJulyAugustSeptemberOctoberNovemberDecember
2012: JanuaryFebruaryMarchAprilMayJuneJulyAugustSeptemberOctoberNovemberDecember
2011: JanuaryFebruaryMarchAprilMayJuneJulyAugustSeptemberOctoberNovemberDecember
2010: JanuaryFebruaryMarchAprilMayJuneJulyAugustSeptemberOctoberNovemberDecember
2009: JanuaryFebruaryMarchAprilMayJuneJulyAugustSeptemberOctoberNovemberDecember
2008: JanuaryFebruaryMarchAprilMayJuneJulyAugustSeptemberOctoberNovemberDecember
2007: JanuaryFebruaryMarchAprilMayJuneJulyAugustSeptemberOctoberNovemberDecember



Why the 199$ ps4 not available worldwide.thats really dumb.



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pxrocks said:
Why the 199$ ps4 not available worldwide.thats really dumb.

Because North America is the most competitive market would be my thoughts. They still see lots of potential new customers that they can pick up in the States. Whereas Europe is basically Sonyland and Japan is Nintendoland. Typically where there is the most competition there is the best deals.



I think Amazon is throwing all of the tools off. They might well have settled the spat, but it is obvious that they have way worse relations with Sony. The result of this is that demand might be 400k PS4s, 300k Switches and 200k Xboxes. It seems from the outside, that they are ignoring the demand, and ordering in 100k PS4s, 300k Switches and 400k Xboxes.

It makes no sense. It obviously happened last year the same way, except 200k PS4s to keep Amazon in the frame. Do Amazon believe they can change demand? Do Microsoft and maybe Nintendo have a stock Warehouse close to Amazon for the holidays to keep the flow much better? All it has probably done is decrease Amazon being a one stop mail order shop for a growing number of Sony buyers full stop. The tool is not a magic psychic predictive Thing. It shows trends, in the way a form guide and weather report help when gambling. With Amazon no longer having a good say on overall results it will have affect, mainly on the holidays. This Doesn't take away from Symbios hard work, or good discussion in the threads. It might well reflect those overall trends moving into next generation, because the thought process is good.



pxrocks said:
Why the 199$ ps4 not available worldwide.thats really dumb.

Black Friday is not really a thing in Europe to the extent it is in the US.  The UK have already turned it into a Sales week, rather than a panic buying mess.  Most deals and bundles will be in December, notably the ten days before.

 

I do think Sony usually get Black Friday right.  I just think instead of those 10 days, they should start the Christmas deals pretty much as soon as Cyber Monday shop restocks begin.



Mr.GameCrazy said:

Wait a second. The Switch sold 12% less than last October!? It's losing momentum, guyz!!

Yeah, its failing of the cliff. :D

 

Megiddo said:
Mr.GameCrazy said: 

Wait a second. The Switch sold 12% less than last October!? It's losing momentum, guyz!!

Switch needs an enormously strong fiscal Q3 to come anywhere even close to Nintendo's bold forecast. This isn't exactly the best way to start that, particularly since these October numbers include the Smash Ultimate bundle. Being down YoY when last year was hindered by stock shortages for the Switch isn't something that should be made light of.

And it will have very strong fiscal Q3 in any case, and even Nintendo dont hit forecast it will be close to it. October isnt expeted to be strong month in any case, from start obviously was all depending from November and December, not from October, Switch selling 50k more or less in October don't change nothing really, Nov+Dec from start were key months with launch of Pokemon and Smash Bros and Holiday season.

Also, Benji said that Switch for now is selling very strong in November (much better than it did last year in first two weeks of November) and that Pokemon is definitely moving consoles, and BF deal with MK8D bundle for $299 yet needs to come, while December is always easily strongest month for Nintendo in any case, and this year they have huge game in December. With all that on mind we can expect around 3.5m sales just for Nov+Dec.

 

colafitte said:

Everyone expecting Swith to obliterate PS4 this holiday season because what happened in December last year.....,are understimating PS4 again..., like always. Last year was last year, it had fewer stock and their main bundle was the failure Battlefront II was, XB X just launched and it was the first holiday for Breath of the Wild, Mario Kart 8 DX and Mario Odyssey. Now PS4 have RDR 2, COD BOPS 4, Spiderman, GOW, ....and it seems there is a lot more stock.

In my opinion PS4 is bound to have a record November NPD possibly around 2M sales, probably selling aroun 500k more than Switch that month and in December I expect PS4 way up YOY, so yes, Switch will win December because Smash and Pokemon but the difference won't be enough to surpass PS4. I won't be surprised if PS4 ends selling more NOV+DEC combined than Switch...

edit: And by the way, Switch won't reach 20M, not even close....Switch is no Wii. If it ends with 17M it will be a success.

PS4 and Switch dont effect each other, Switch last year did had Breath of the Wild, Mario Kart 8 DX and Mario Odyssey, but this Nov+Dec has Pokemon and Smash Bros, plus plenty of bundles, Switch have much stronger Holiday season than it did last year.

Do you want to bet that Switch will pass 17m in shipped units?



Intrinsic said:
Kerotan said:

They just never stop underestimating the ps4 do they. Year 5 it's still full steam ahead year 6 will be the same. It has sold well at 299 all year. The console could sell for the next 5 years if they wanted. Only thing stopping it is the ps5. 

Yup. PS4 is that console that for some reason everyone wants to underestimate. Like they just can't accept that people actually want a PS4.

I don't see it pulling these kinda numbers next year though, especially when rumors of a PS5 are in full swing or even an announcement. Then its sales will be tied to pricing alone. And how low can sony really go. 

Well the thing is if Sony cut the price to $249 all next year it will sell well and if they cut the price to $199 in 2020 i will sell well regardless of a PS5 launched or not. The market for a $199 home console is drastically different to the market that buys a $400 brand new console. 

pxrocks said:
Why the 199$ ps4 not available worldwide.thats really dumb.

Because in in Europe, the middle east and Asia Sony are obliterating MS in the console battle. There's really no alternative to replace the PS4 in the minds of consumers here. In the US there is because Xbox is a very similar console so Sony are more aggressive there. They are implementing a hold strategy outside of NA. Maximum profits and returns from a market that have control of. It's smart business because Sony want to cancel out the losses from the PS3 ASAP and for the first time in their history turn Playstation int a massive money spinner for the company that's been a worthwhile investment from the start. The more money they make now the more they can justify investing into the PS5. 

Jaxyfoo said:
I think Amazon is throwing all of the tools off. They might well have settled the spat, but it is obvious that they have way worse relations with Sony. The result of this is that demand might be 400k PS4s, 300k Switches and 200k Xboxes. It seems from the outside, that they are ignoring the demand, and ordering in 100k PS4s, 300k Switches and 400k Xboxes.

It makes no sense. It obviously happened last year the same way, except 200k PS4s to keep Amazon in the frame. Do Amazon believe they can change demand? Do Microsoft and maybe Nintendo have a stock Warehouse close to Amazon for the holidays to keep the flow much better? All it has probably done is decrease Amazon being a one stop mail order shop for a growing number of Sony buyers full stop. The tool is not a magic psychic predictive Thing. It shows trends, in the way a form guide and weather report help when gambling. With Amazon no longer having a good say on overall results it will have affect, mainly on the holidays. This Doesn't take away from Symbios hard work, or good discussion in the threads. It might well reflect those overall trends moving into next generation, because the thought process is good.

I've never actually said it but I appreciate the effort Symbios puts into his thread, IMO the amazon thread should be merged into his thread as Amazon has become so unreliable lately it doesn't deserve it's own thread. Pus he covers it anyway an factors it in there so what's the point in having two. As for the spat. Sony don't need Amazon and Amazon don't need Sony.