Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Over 5 million Pokemon GO players plan to buy a Switch to play Let's Go Pikachu & Eevee

https://www.vg247.com/2018/11/16/pokemon-lets-go-pikachu-eevee-pokemon-go-players/

I was just browsing around the internet when I stumbled upon this. It would appear as though GameFreak's humble plan to increase the size of the core Pokemon fanbase may just be working. Analysts have collected some data regarding Pokemon GO players and their stance on Pokemon Lets Go Pikachu and Eevee. The data was collected from over 55 million active Pokemon GO players.

15% plan to buy Pokemon Lets Go
(~8.25 million)

24% already own a Nintendo Switch
(~13.2 million)

13% of players who DO NOT own a Switch plan to buy Lets Go
(~5.4 million)

admittedly there are some things about this that sound a bit iffy, so take it with a grain of salt, but if this is to be believed, then Lets Go could be a system seller, and could to GameFreak's intentions bring in millions of new fans to the core series.



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I wouldn't be too surprised, but until we see the actual results this doesn't really mean much.



the report says that 60% of 55million are active players. It counts the 55M or the actives only?
But the most significant part is that it is USA only, we can at least double it for WW...
Now I see why Nintendo keeps its 20 million forecast.



Pokemon is like Nintendo's most stable system seller. From the Gameboy to the Switch it seems like the Poketrain never really stops. I still don't expect huge numbers for Pokemon Let's Go but it definitely won't be small or even medium.



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Doesn't mean much actually. How was the survey conducted, on how many players?

For me, sure, I would like to buy the Switch, and the PSVR, and a new computer. Doesn't mean that I can do it. You could ask the same thing to any active playerbase on an online game ("Are you interested in the new game on this new console") and have similar results, but it doesn't mean that these 5 millions people can or will run to buy a Switch for Pokémon Let's Go launch.

I defended Pokemon Let's Go a while ago by saying that it will work better than some people expect, but free mobile players saying "Yeah, I'm interested in spending 300 dollars for this" doesn't mean that they will all take that step. In an ideal world without any constraints, sure, but not in reality.

 

A good comparison would be a similar study on Granblue mobile playerbase, with the upcoming PS4 game... 



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Sure they do.



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I'm amazed that a quarter of Pokemon Go players own a Switch. My guess is that people were more likely to answer the survey if they owned a Switch or intended to buy one, and that skewed the results. Still, I don't think it's out of the question for Let's Go to trigger five million additional system sales, what with the 3DS population.



Yerm said:

https://www.vg247.com/2018/11/16/pokemon-lets-go-pikachu-eevee-pokemon-go-players/

I was just browsing around the internet when I stumbled upon this. It would appear as though GameFreak's humble plan to increase the size of the core Pokemon fanbase may just be working. Analysts have collected some data regarding Pokemon GO players and their stance on Pokemon Lets Go Pikachu and Eevee. The data was collected from over 55 million active Pokemon GO players.

15% plan to buy Pokemon Lets Go
(~8.25 million)

24% already own a Nintendo Switch
(~13.2 million)

13% of players who DO NOT own a Switch plan to buy Lets Go
(~5.4 million)

admittedly there are some things about this that sound a bit iffy, so take it with a grain of salt, but if this is to be believed, then Lets Go could be a system seller, and could to GameFreak's intentions bring in millions of new fans to the core series.

Worth nothing they done research just on US market.

And offcourse that Pokemon Lets Go will be system seller game in any case.



Surveys like these are hilariously inaccurate. People who voluntarily submit to being surveyed are already far more likely to being highly engaged in whatever is being surveyed.



Here's the link to the original source:
https://www.npd.com/wps/portal/npd/us/blog/2018/gotta-catch-them-all-pokemon-expands-its-console-market-by-engaging-mobile/

Since it is a Mat Piscatella writeup, it's to be expected that people end up confused on which percentages relate to what, because raw numbers are repeatedly obfuscated in typical NPD style.

55m mobile gamers have played Pokémon Go at some point. Of those 55m, 60% are still active players, so that results in a base value of 33m for further statements.

24% of active Go players also play games on Switch (~8m). Since this value exceeds the LTD sales of Switch in the USA, the research doesn't make a distinction between Switch ownership and playing Switch, so any given Switch console can have multiple players. Note that Piscatella does not mention Switch ownership either. 65% of these 8m intend to purchase Let's Go, so that's ~5.3m. Piscatella's doublecheck is that this number (5.3m) equates to 15% of active Go players; 15% of 33m is ~5m, the small discrepancy can be explained with rounded percentages.

13% of active Go players who do not play games on Switch (meaning 13% of 25m, because 8m of 33m do play games on Switch) intend to buy and play Let's Go. That's ~3.25m. What's noteworthy here is that this stat does not equate to purchase intent for Switch, because these people may or may not already have a Switch in their household, but it's owned and played by another member in the household.

This research suggests that ~8.5m people in the USA have a purchase intent for Let's Go, but intent doesn't mean that they'll go through with it. The research doesn't reek of incompetence, because sales expectations for Let's Go in the USA should be at least half of that purchase intent figure. I've seen far worse.

Bottom line is that the thread title as well as the numbers in the OP are inaccurate. There aren't 5m Go players who plan to buy a Switch for Let's Go. The actual figure is ~3.25m and comes with the caveat that a Switch purchase is not mandatory in every realistic scenario. As for the question if Let's Go will sell millions of copies and shift Switch hardware, that was never in doubt to begin with.



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