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Forums - Sales Discussion - Japan Sales Week 42 Media Create/Famitsu/Dengeki - October 15-21, 2018

Consumer software weekly sales ranking Top 20

※ The ranking red background is a new work title.

RankModeltitleRelease dateSales volumeCumulative numberReader review
1 Call of Duty Black Ops IV 18/10/12 92,572 321, 347
2 Super Mario Party 18/10/05 36,381 242,700
3 Soul Calibur VI 18/10/18 24,049 24,049
Four DARK SOULS REMASTERED (Dark soul remaster) 18/10/18 14,646 14,646
Five CRYSTAR - CRYSTA - 18/10/18 10, 473 10, 473
6 Assassin's Creed Odyssey (limited edition included) 18/10/02 8,807 73, 011 72
7 Minecraft 18/06/21 8, 325 334, 343
8 Splatoon 2 (Splatoon 2) (Including included version) 17/07/21 7,293 2,671,037 73
9 Mario Kart 8 Deluxe 17/04/28 6,774 1,803,792 73
Ten Musou OROCHI 3 (limited edition included) 18/09/27 6,381 144, 441
11 Crash · Bandicoot 3 Bottoms! Bonus Edition 18/10/18 5,217 5,217
12 The Legend of Zelda Breath of the Wild (Including Limited Edition) 17/03/03 4,442 1,138,631 95
13 Marvel Spider-Man (Including included version) 18/09/07 4, 207 290, 875 82
14 Pocket Monster Ultra Sun / Ultra Moon 17/11/17 3,666 1,746,570 62
15 The Legend of Heroes Legendary Flame IV IV - The End of Saga - (Including Limited Edition) 18/09/27 3,581 105, 542 59
16 FIFA 19 (limited edition included) 18/09/25 3,086 79,638 85
17 Super Mario Odyssey (Including included version) 17/10/27 2,962 1,831,692 91
18 Dragon Ball Fighters 18/09/27 2,779 38,664
19 Taiko no Tatsujin Nintendo Switch ~ Jon! 18/07/19 2,535 215, 620
20 Nintendo Labo Toy - Con 03: Drive Kit 18/09/14 2,412 29, 988

 Consumer hard weekly sales ranking

Modelsales quantity
Switch 42, 148
PS4 Pro 11,515
PS4 10, 158
New2DS LL 3,891
Vita 2,247
New 3 DS LL 2,231
2DS 290
Xbox One X 169
Xbox One 62

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Famitsu & dengeki

Sublime second week numbers for BO4. The best 2nd week numbers for a COD in japan by far.

Insane second week for cod. I called for over 100k second week last week and i got it! Including digital of course. Speaking of digital, total sales are probably over 400k by now. Unprecedented for cod. Hopefully long lads.

Ps4 Pro sales higher then slim this week. The small price cut having an effect. 21k is a healthy number. Next week RDR2. More exciting times ahead.

A little bump for NS but a not too little for the PS4. Their baseline this week changes with NS@40016 and PS4@17688. CoD is doing great and SMP shows the staying power.

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I am pretty sure it's a given BO4 will become the best-selling COD in Japan now. It should say something to the people who thought it was doing bad just because physical sales were low in some regions. The game is a behemoth on the digital front and will have good legs thanks to Blackout.

Here is the week 42 update in terms of the two big consoles in Japan's path to be able to reach the commonly stated (in these sales threads) estimates for 2018 sales (2 mil for PS4, 4 mil for Switch) .

  TWS GD YTD % Goal AWN (Change)
PS4 21,673 -43,488 1,304,895 65.2% (+1.1) 69,510 (+4349)
Switch 42,148 -147,806 1,952,651 48.9% (+1.1) 204,734 (+14,780)

TWS - This week's sales
GD - Goal differential, the difference between the average week needed from last week compared to this week's sales
YTD - Units sold in 2018 so far including this week's sales
AWN - Average weekly sales needed to reach the estimate for the console.

PS4 AWN approaches 70k and Switch AWN flies past 200k. I don't see anything on the horizon for Switch in the next few weeks, so I guess it's just waiting for Pokemon and the Smash bundle. I thought maybe sales would start picking up for it since this is Q4 but looks like October is pretty much the same as practically every month this year. If Switch has a decent week then it could get past the half-way point in next week's numbers.

So let's dig a little deeper into these goal numbers since this was such a boring week. PS4 in Japan has been about 9% of its total number of consoles sold LTD. So hitting 2 million in a normal year would mean that about ~22 million PS4s were sold around the globe that year. Obviously MHW puts a big wrench into that kind of thinking , but it just gives a ballpark figure for us to think about. Whereas with the Switch, Japan has accounted for around 25% of its total number of consoles sold LTD. Selling 4 million this year would mean that about 16 million consoles were sold this year. Needless to say that Nintendo needs a HUGE November and December for the Switch in Japan or it's potentially going to look rather foolish in front of its investors. Though we'lll get much more info on its trajectory in next week's fiscal quarter shareholder meeting of course, so this is likely all just premature conjecture and I could easily look the fool afterwards.

42k Switch, 21,5k PS4's and 200 Xbox One's...

Switch keeps almost doubleing the PS4 in japan.... Its taken a 657k lead this year (YTD).
The day the switch passes the PS4 in japan grows ever closer.

CoD did surpriseingly well in japan didnt it?

COMG Preorder Ratios

Soul Calibur 6 - PS4 - 1:1046
Crystar - PS4 - 1:655
Dark Souls Remastered - NS - 1:862

For bigger games the 1:1000 estimate still good. Crystar was barely in the top20 of COMG and had 16 pts.


COMG Weekly ratios

Call of Duty Black Ops 4 - PS4 - 1:402
Soul Calibur 6 - PS4 - 1:437
Super Mario Party - NS - 1:957
Dark Souls Remastered - NS - 1:431
Crystar - PS4 - 1:403
Musou Orochi 3 - PS4 - 1:491
Minecraft - NS - 1:694

Only games that are over 10pts. So the 1:600 trend of past weeks is currently not holding. COMG likes Sony more that we know already.
For anyone that wants to know why I am doing this: COMG releases a weekly chart every sunday and I want to use that to predict MC sales.
It was right, that software overall this week would be very low, lower than last week and that is indeed the case. Labo is the tail end of the top 20 with less than 2500 units sold.

Next week switch should join ps4 on being down YTD as Mario oddessy launched last year. Only xbox will be up YOY.