The evidence that Switch's evergreen titles are showing fantastic legs with nothing whatsoever to suggest this will change.
We're just going in circles now; you're still dancing around the fact that Switch is a totally different product from PS/Xbox that occupies a totally different niche; the fact that their sales aren't affecting each other does not support your argument, it totally undermines it, as it shows that they don't directly compete.
The only way your position would hold any water at all would be if you believe Sony/MS are going to create their own competing hybrids next gen.
Again, i'm not talking about short term effects on sales of said games.
And even then, that doesn't qualify as conclusive evidence as you are comparing the sales pattern of na typical situation to that of a atypical situation.
"you're still dancing around the fact that Switch is a totally different product from PS/Xbox that occupies a totally different niche;"
I never even questioned the idea that they were different products nor did i said such a situation couldn't be true/happen. What i said is that, given the data we have, i don't believe that because they are different, that automatically explains sales numbers and coexistance.
I don't deny that coexistence. What i did was question how that same coexistence was/is being possible in the way we are witnissing.
And that's really what separates our views.
What you have been saying is this: they are different products and because Switch goes after a niche market, it can easily coexist now and in the years to come.
First, 20 million consoles sold in 18 months or so is anything but niche.
Second, by saying that you are ignoring certain important aspects:
To this day, since launch, despite everything Switch, only 30% of the 20M are new users;
70% of it's users already own a PS4/XB1. And i think it's safe to assume "already owned" is more accurate;
When Switch came out, more than 80M consoles had been sold. A number that has increased to 108M, alongside Switch.
The reason, to me, to their coexistance, is simple:
There was no real competition because the number of consoles sold was already so high that there was enough people for Switch to sell to without causing much distress to PS4 and XB1. But saying that is like saying that your potential market has an expiration date (it doesn't renew itself enough)
Also, another problem arises: why didn't more new users opted for Switch in 2017 instead of staying with PS4 and XB1? The same goes for 2018.
It's a valid question for a system that was so hyped and brought a new concept along with 4 system sellers in 10 months… why didn't the 2017 and 2018 consumers prefer the Switch over PS4? In other words, why aren't we seeing Switch leading sales over the competition (in a year where even XB1 is managing to go up)?
Simple explanation: people, who aren't made of money had a choice to make. They chose PS4 over Switch.
Which left old PS4/XB1 users as the most likely consumers for the new console (enough time with other consoles; Switch being a very desirable product; no PS5/XB1 in sight).
As you see, i don't dance around the obvious. I question why the obvious performed the way it did and not differently and what may ensue or not.
Again, when three companies go after the same consumers they are already competing.
Of course, it's better for them all to do it their own way and not just copy the other, as that creates more reasons to have all products. But when people have money on their hands they first go after the thing that matters the most and then, if there's more Money - WHEN there's more moeny -, they'll go for the second most important product.
Difference is good and a very good argument, but you can't ignore when that same differance is being offered in a head-to-head competition or when it's being offered when the market is already there ready to go for something new.
Switch kinda faced both situations: it succeeded in attracting satisfied customers but didn't succeed in being the top choice for new users.
Iit is not different or irrelevant if you can attract more users to you than the other guys in a given context. And in this context, Switch isn't being able to be at the top.
At the top are... the "top" priorities. Obivious but still very imporant to remember that.
I get it that you don't agree with me and no matter what i say you probably won't, so, as to not drag this any further, let's end things here?
Maybe one day we will get back to this and see how things changed.