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Can NSMBUD sell 10 million?

Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Can NSMBUD sell 10 million?

I wish that Ninty would at least expand the game a bit with actual new levels. If they would add 15% or so, I'd consider double dipping. But, out of principle, I'm not going to buy nearly the same game again 5 years after I bought it the first time.



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zorg1000 said:
DélioPT said:


Even if i tried to see them as different, the data we have for the US shows that the vast majority of Switch owners own a PS4 and/or Xbox. Wouldn't that nullify whatever i could say about the uniqueness of Switch owners?

The big flaw in this reasoning is that most PS4/XBO owned a PS3/360 so they already had the opportunity to play those games. Most PS4/XBO owners did not own a Wii U so when they get a Switch it's the first time they have a chance to play these games.

But that doesn't really change a lot: it's still port, sold as a port. And as far as we know, there's no real incentive (new content) to make people interested in a 6/7 year old game.
Not to mention that at that time, the game, itself, wasn't enough to help Wii U have a decent post launch or even a ressurgance, down the road.

Also, given that XB1 and PS4's fanbase care more for other genres, they MIGHT now behave the way you think they will.

Overall, what you said makes sense. The question is how much sense does it make.



DélioPT said:
zorg1000 said:

The big flaw in this reasoning is that most PS4/XBO owned a PS3/360 so they already had the opportunity to play those games. Most PS4/XBO owners did not own a Wii U so when they get a Switch it's the first time they have a chance to play these games.

But that doesn't really change a lot: it's still port, sold as a port. And as far as we know, there's no real incentive (new content) to make people interested in a 6/7 year old game.
Not to mention that at that time, the game, itself, wasn't enough to help Wii U have a decent post launch or even a ressurgance, down the road.

Also, given that XB1 and PS4's fanbase care more for other genres, they MIGHT now behave the way you think they will.

Overall, what you said makes sense. The question is how much sense does it make.

It changes a lot and we have data to back this up. The majority of PS3/360 ports to PS4/XBO sell a fraction of the original. Almost all of the Wii U to Switch ports have sold as much or more than the original.

There is very little reason to believe NSMBU Deluxe wont outsell the Wii U version.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

zorg1000 said:
DélioPT said:

But that doesn't really change a lot: it's still port, sold as a port. And as far as we know, there's no real incentive (new content) to make people interested in a 6/7 year old game.
Not to mention that at that time, the game, itself, wasn't enough to help Wii U have a decent post launch or even a ressurgance, down the road.

Also, given that XB1 and PS4's fanbase care more for other genres, they MIGHT now behave the way you think they will.

Overall, what you said makes sense. The question is how much sense does it make.

It changes a lot and we have data to back this up. The majority of PS3/360 ports to PS4/XBO sell a fraction of the original. Almost all of the Wii U to Switch ports have sold as much or more than the original.

There is very little reason to believe NSMBU Deluxe wont outsell the Wii U version.

Even if they all sold the same or more, there's two things that need to be considered:
Not all of them did that when Switch had already sold as much as Wii U;
Newer ports are arriving when Switch is already past Wii U - and by a significant margin.

I'm not questioning the ability to outsell the Wii U version. I'm merely questioning the ability to sell the double (which this thread is about).

From the little i have seen, i didn't see a title that doubled the original's figures.



DélioPT said:
zorg1000 said:

It changes a lot and we have data to back this up. The majority of PS3/360 ports to PS4/XBO sell a fraction of the original. Almost all of the Wii U to Switch ports have sold as much or more than the original.

There is very little reason to believe NSMBU Deluxe wont outsell the Wii U version.

Even if they all sold the same or more, there's two things that need to be considered:
Not all of them did that when Switch had already sold as much as Wii U;
Newer ports are arriving when Switch is already past Wii U - and by a significant margin.

I'm not questioning the ability to outsell the Wii U version. I'm merely questioning the ability to sell the double (which this thread is about).

From the little i have seen, i didn't see a title that doubled the original's figures.

Who cares? You are making arguments that support what I'm saying, Wii U ports on Switch are doing better because Wii U was holding the games back (low install base).

Look back at my first reply to you, I mentioned that 10m might not happen but outselling the original was likely, ever since then our discussion has been about outselling the original.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

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That wouldnt surprise me the slightest, I think it might just do that but not something I would bet money on.

It will certainly outsell the Wii U version though. So 6M is all but certain and 10M+ is certainly a possibility.



zorg1000 said:
DélioPT said:

Even if they all sold the same or more, there's two things that need to be considered:
Not all of them did that when Switch had already sold as much as Wii U;
Newer ports are arriving when Switch is already past Wii U - and by a significant margin.

(...)

Who cares? You are making arguments that support what I'm saying, Wii U ports on Switch are doing better because Wii U was holding the games back (low install base).

(...)

I have to chime in here, because I bought my Switch after the system had already passed Wii U lifetime sales. There was a legal piece of paper in the box that explicitly stated that I am not allowed to buy a Switch game that is a port of a first party Wii U game, or else I'll be put in jail.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Gamers Club

zorg1000 said:
DélioPT said:

Even if they all sold the same or more, there's two things that need to be considered:
Not all of them did that when Switch had already sold as much as Wii U;
Newer ports are arriving when Switch is already past Wii U - and by a significant margin.

I'm not questioning the ability to outsell the Wii U version. I'm merely questioning the ability to sell the double (which this thread is about).

From the little i have seen, i didn't see a title that doubled the original's figures.

Who cares? You are making arguments that support what I'm saying, Wii U ports on Switch are doing better because Wii U was holding the games back (low install base).

Look back at my first reply to you, I mentioned that 10m might not happen but outselling the original was likely, ever since then our discussion has been about outselling the original.

Then we have been talking for nothing, really, as i didn't question that.

What i have said about Wii U holding back was pretty simple: not every game was hold back in a meaningful way, at least to have figures like doubling the original.
Some games were really hold back (MK 8 for example), some weren't (NSMB U, in my opinion).

I use MK8 as an example because, even though it shared the same userbase, it reached NSMB U figures way, way faster and even surpassed them. Same goes for Smash, too - minus the overall sales figures (3DS port!).

NSMB U selling as much as the original or surpassing it was never an issue to me.



I find it unlikely,but I should like to hope the people that enjoyed NSMB Wii will dig it.



I have a feeling that this isn't gonna do nearly as well as other games that have been ported over. Mario Kart sold because everyone and their mother had to have their Mario Kart, plus people still play it online. Donkey Kong and Bayonetta sold because over time they got the reputation of underrated gems in the Wii U's library, so people like me wanted to get them as soon as possible. NSMBU just seemed stale even when it was new, at least for me. Maybe I was just unimpressed with NSMB2, but I remember not giving a crap at all when NSMBU was announced.