Forums - Sales Discussion - August NPD 2018 predictions thread

which console gonna win the month

Switch 12 66.67%
 
PS4 6 33.33%
 
XB1 0 0.00%
 
Total:18

August is a 4 weeks month

Important release

  

 

Possible hardware impact
- PS4 Pro stock problems
- PS4 500 million limited edition bundle (50K shipped worldwide)


Last month

[NSW] 262K
[PS4] 187K
[XB1] 152K


Last year:

[NSW] 215K
[PS4] 191K
[XB1] 116K

 

Predictions thread archivie

2018 predictions threads: JanuaryFebruaryMarchAprilMayJune; July;
2017 predictions threads:
 January; FebruaryMarch; April; MayJune; July; August, SeptemberOctoberNovemberDecember
2016 predictions threads: JanuaryFebruaryMarchAprilMayJuneJulyAugustSeptemberOctoberNovemberDecember
2015 predictions threads: January; February; March; April; MayJune; JulyAugustSeptemberOctoberNovemberDecember

Last edited by Ryng - on 03 September 2018

2020 predictions: NSW 21m, PS5 6m, XSX 4.5m, PS4 9m, XB1 3m
(PS5 and XSX predictions will most likely change after we know enough about them)

Around the Network

[NSW] 209K
[PS4] 201K
[XB1] 162K

Last edited by Ryng - on 04 September 2018

2020 predictions: NSW 21m, PS5 6m, XSX 4.5m, PS4 9m, XB1 3m
(PS5 and XSX predictions will most likely change after we know enough about them)

[PS4] 270k
[NSW] 230k
[XB1] 150k

The 500 million special edition PS4 puts it on top this month.



Megiddo said:
[PS4] 270k
[NSW] 230k
[XB1] 150k

The 500 million special edition PS4 puts it on top this month.

You are aware of that the Special Edition was 50k across the world right?

With Pro stock issues I find it very hard to believe it's going to pull off a 90k increase.



Switch - 210k
PS4- 205k
XBO- 180k



Around the Network
Mbolibombo said:
Megiddo said:
[PS4] 270k
[NSW] 230k
[XB1] 150k

The 500 million special edition PS4 puts it on top this month.

With Pro stock issues I find it very hard to believe it's going to pull off a 90k increase.

Not sure what you're referring to. The pro stock issues was last month. For August the pro reappeared on Gamestop, Best Buy, and even occasionally on Amazon. You should check out the NPD predicting tool to get a grasp of the recent data as you seem to be a month behind.



Megiddo said:
Mbolibombo said:

With Pro stock issues I find it very hard to believe it's going to pull off a 90k increase.

Not sure what you're referring to. The pro stock issues was last month. For August the pro reappeared on Gamestop, Best Buy, and even occasionally on Amazon. You should check out the NPD predicting tool to get a grasp of the recent data as you seem to be a month behind.

It had stock issues in august as well just not for the entire month is what I am refering to, the NPD tool has been quite accurate in determing the winner so far, but there are flaws in how it works and this month in particular where there showed up quite many new SKUs is obviously going to skew the predicted number.

I think it's going to be close between NSW and PS4, insiders on era has hinted about the Switch winning August as well and I cant see both systems being close to 270k. I'm think Ryng Tolus 200k+ units is a solid guess. Maybe a bit more.. but it would surprise me big time if it was that high.



I mean, the PS4 average points on the NPD prediction tool for July was 138 points/day. Even before the big spike due to the special console the PS4 was averaging about 275 in August, pretty much double its July average.

July Tool Points avg ------------ July NPD results
PS4: 138              187k
Switch: 413            262k

August Tool Points avg
PS4*: ~275
Switch: 382

*PS4 average pulled from the day before the special PS4 console was available for purchase


PS4 should have a much better month and Switch should be about even or maybe just a bit down from July.

Last edited by Megiddo - on 02 September 2018

[Ps4] 240-260k
[NSW] 210-220k
[XB1] 170k-190k
¯_(ツ)_/¯



I don't wanna bet on numbers so I'll just say the Switch will win this month by a margin of 15K-25K over the PS4.



Switch Friend Code : 3905-6122-2909