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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - BOLD Prediction: Octopath Traveler will sell over 6M WW LT

 

Do you think it can sell 6M Lifetime?

You're delusional if you ... 13 28.26%
 
It will do well, but not nearly as well 25 54.35%
 
It will be close, but not quite 6M 3 6.52%
 
Sounds about right 1 2.17%
 
You're clearly underestim... 3 6.52%
 
Other, Rabbit's Land, etc... 0 0%
 
See Results 1 2.17%
 
Total:46
peachbuggy on 24 July 2018

There's optimism and then there's craziness. I fear this prediction falls into the latter category. I feel the shortages are hurting its long term sales potential. This type of game doesn't usually have much legs to it. Also, maybe not many copies were shipped first week, giving the impression it sold better than it did. I hope the shortages are sorted soon and it does have long term sales potential though. Best case scenario i see it selling 3m LT.



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Slarvax on 24 July 2018

You're not Tbone. Therefore, no!



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Wyrdness on 24 July 2018

If it does those numbers they'll be porting every JRPG under the sun to the platform either way nice to see bold predictions.



TheBraveGallade on 24 July 2018
Mnementh said:
TheBraveGallade said:

Well Pokemon for one.

 

Fire emblem awakening is confirmed over 2 mil before digital, and fates is so close it isn't even funny.

 

Persona 5 is at 1.4 before digital

 

Every DQ game ever sells like over 2 mil in Japan alone.

 

Both braverly default and second also beat 2 mil I think

All of these are vgchartz January numbers btw

Drat, I forgot Pokemon. That surely beats 2M in every incarnation. Fire emblem awakening is indeed past 2M, Fates scratches the 2M. But it is also a combination with strategy, which is a market where turn-based works better. Persona is at 1.7M if you add PS3-sales. Dragon Quest XI is at 1.8M for 3DS and 1.4M for PS4. It has passed 2M if you count both together. Bravely Default is at 1.4M, I don't find data for second on VGC.

So, what does it say for Octopath? I think we can agree, it probably won't tap into the Pokemon-market. Fire Emblem with it's combination with strategy can go past 2M, but not by much. Octopath doesn't have that element. persona 5 one of the highest acclaimed turn-based RPGs of the last time is below 2M on two platforms. Counting digital it might beat 2M, but barely. So that leaves Dragon Quest, which in combiation is somewhere at 3M, not 6M. Maybe that can clear 6M including digital after the Switch release on 3 platforms. Octopath should manage that on one platform? Unlikely.

 

Digging deeper,

Bowser's inside story sold 4.5mil

Dream team sold 2.2 mil

While all DQ games sell over 2mil the last DQ game to sell really well is 9 on the DS with 5.2 mil.

Then again DQ never had the presence  in the west...

 

The closest thing I can find to compare this game to is bravely default, but apparently it's actually doubling THAT game in sales so I think 3M is a lock in.

 

I think the reason they stocked so low is because they were expecting bravely default sales levels. Currently the demand is at least double that.



jonathanalis on 25 July 2018

Why exactly 6?
5 million is not bold enough?



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forest-spirit on 25 July 2018

2 million would be crazy good for this title, and 3 million would be insane. 6 million...now that's just not gonna happen.



Mnementh on 25 July 2018
TheBraveGallade said:
Mnementh said:

Drat, I forgot Pokemon. That surely beats 2M in every incarnation. Fire emblem awakening is indeed past 2M, Fates scratches the 2M. But it is also a combination with strategy, which is a market where turn-based works better. Persona is at 1.7M if you add PS3-sales. Dragon Quest XI is at 1.8M for 3DS and 1.4M for PS4. It has passed 2M if you count both together. Bravely Default is at 1.4M, I don't find data for second on VGC.

So, what does it say for Octopath? I think we can agree, it probably won't tap into the Pokemon-market. Fire Emblem with it's combination with strategy can go past 2M, but not by much. Octopath doesn't have that element. persona 5 one of the highest acclaimed turn-based RPGs of the last time is below 2M on two platforms. Counting digital it might beat 2M, but barely. So that leaves Dragon Quest, which in combiation is somewhere at 3M, not 6M. Maybe that can clear 6M including digital after the Switch release on 3 platforms. Octopath should manage that on one platform? Unlikely.

 

Digging deeper,

Bowser's inside story sold 4.5mil

Dream team sold 2.2 mil

While all DQ games sell over 2mil the last DQ game to sell really well is 9 on the DS with 5.2 mil.

Then again DQ never had the presence  in the west...

 

The closest thing I can find to compare this game to is bravely default, but apparently it's actually doubling THAT game in sales so I think 3M is a lock in.

 

I think the reason they stocked so low is because they were expecting bravely default sales levels. Currently the demand is at least double that.

So Mario+Luigi and DQ breaking the 2M mark. Still nothing Octopath can do.

To the bolded: There comes the information from, it doubles sales of Bravely Default? So far I'm only aware of Japanese numbers, which were 140K for Bravely and 110K for Octopath while supply constraint (Square really shipped less than Bravely - did they really think it would do worse?). While I think the idea it does better in the West could have merit, as Bravely was on handheld and apparently the west is averse to handheld, it must've doing a lot better in the west to not only outdo the worse performance in Japan, but actually lead to doubled sales.



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TheBraveGallade on 25 July 2018
Mnementh said:
TheBraveGallade said:

 

Digging deeper,

Bowser's inside story sold 4.5mil

Dream team sold 2.2 mil

While all DQ games sell over 2mil the last DQ game to sell really well is 9 on the DS with 5.2 mil.

Then again DQ never had the presence  in the west...

 

The closest thing I can find to compare this game to is bravely default, but apparently it's actually doubling THAT game in sales so I think 3M is a lock in.

 

I think the reason they stocked so low is because they were expecting bravely default sales levels. Currently the demand is at least double that.

So Mario+Luigi and DQ breaking the 2M mark. Still nothing Octopath can do.

To the bolded: There comes the information from, it doubles sales of Bravely Default? So far I'm only aware of Japanese numbers, which were 140K for Bravely and 110K for Octopath while supply constraint (Square really shipped less than Bravely - did they really think it would do worse?). While I think the idea it does better in the West could have merit, as Bravely was on handheld and apparently the west is averse to handheld, it must've doing a lot better in the west to not only outdo the worse performance in Japan, but actually lead to doubled sales.

Apparently it's doubling sales in Europe to be precise, where it is NOT having supply contraints.

Octopath is currently out of stock in US and JP so there is that... And supply constraints merely mean more digital sales these days.



Mnementh on 25 July 2018
TheBraveGallade said:
Mnementh said:

So Mario+Luigi and DQ breaking the 2M mark. Still nothing Octopath can do.

To the bolded: There comes the information from, it doubles sales of Bravely Default? So far I'm only aware of Japanese numbers, which were 140K for Bravely and 110K for Octopath while supply constraint (Square really shipped less than Bravely - did they really think it would do worse?). While I think the idea it does better in the West could have merit, as Bravely was on handheld and apparently the west is averse to handheld, it must've doing a lot better in the west to not only outdo the worse performance in Japan, but actually lead to doubled sales.

Apparently it's doubling sales in Europe to be precise, where it is NOT having supply contraints.

Octopath is currently out of stock in US and JP so there is that... And supply constraints merely mean more digital sales these days.

Ah. Europe was the region with the lowest sales for Bravely. Doubling it means, it reaches the sales of the other regions. Certainly good, but does not mean we can double the global sales of Bravely.

However this turns out, let's wait for more numbers to see where it is headed.



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Mbolibombo on 25 July 2018

Disagree. It's still a classic JRPG limited to one platform after all.

I could see it potentially sell over 2M though and that would be a massive success. I'd say 1M+ is a lock though.