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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - BOLD Prediction: Octopath Traveler will sell over 6M WW LT

 

Do you think it can sell 6M Lifetime?

You're delusional if you ... 13 28.26%
 
It will do well, but not nearly as well 25 54.35%
 
It will be close, but not quite 6M 3 6.52%
 
Sounds about right 1 2.17%
 
You're clearly underestim... 3 6.52%
 
Other, Rabbit's Land, etc... 0 0%
 
See Results 1 2.17%
 
Total:46
zorg1000 on 24 July 2018

Not gonna come close



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

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gergroy on 24 July 2018

No, I don’t think it will be that high. It would need some dlc support or something to keep attention on the title for that to happen, but they have already said that isn’t happening. So once people start to wrap up the game, it’s going to start to disappear from conversation and word of mouth is what has been selling it. No, 2-3 million at best would be my guess, which is still incredibly good for a game like this.



Nautilus on 24 July 2018
Mnementh said:
TheBraveGallade said:

Well Pokemon for one.

 

Fire emblem awakening is confirmed over 2 mil before digital, and fates is so close it isn't even funny.

 

Persona 5 is at 1.4 before digital

 

Every DQ game ever sells like over 2 mil in Japan alone.

 

Both braverly default and second also beat 2 mil I think

All of these are vgchartz January numbers btw

Drat, I forgot Pokemon. That surely beats 2M in every incarnation. Fire emblem awakening is indeed past 2M, Fates scratches the 2M. But it is also a combination with strategy, which is a market where turn-based works better. Persona is at 1.7M if you add PS3-sales. Dragon Quest XI is at 1.8M for 3DS and 1.4M for PS4. It has passed 2M if you count both together. Bravely Default is at 1.4M, I don't find data for second on VGC.

So, what does it say for Octopath? I think we can agree, it probably won't tap into the Pokemon-market. Fire Emblem with it's combination with strategy can go past 2M, but not by much. Octopath doesn't have that element. persona 5 one of the highest acclaimed turn-based RPGs of the last time is below 2M on two platforms. Counting digital it might beat 2M, but barely. So that leaves Dragon Quest, which in combiation is somewhere at 3M, not 6M. Maybe that can clear 6M including digital after the Switch release on 3 platforms. Octopath should manage that on one platform? Unlikely.

Persona 5 already sold more than 2.2 millions, just saying!



My (locked) thread about how difficulty should be a decision for the developers, not the gamers.

https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=241866&page=1

Nautilus on 24 July 2018

Would be great, but I dont think it will happen.

What I do think it will sell is this: it will do at least 1 million in the first month, and LT will sit at 3 million at the very least.



My (locked) thread about how difficulty should be a decision for the developers, not the gamers.

https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=241866&page=1

Gammalad on 24 July 2018

Games like Persona 5 and Dragon Quest XI have only cracked 2M, so I really doubt this will go much beyond 2M



"I think it will be the HDS"-Me in regards to Nintendo's next handheld.

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LipeJJ on 24 July 2018
Ka-pi96 said:
ninson95 said:
Would be amazing but I highly doubt it. I can see max 3 Mio and thats already overly optimistic^^

Is that a Brazilian thing or something? I've only ever seen Brazilians say it before, are you Brazilian?

And why does nobody ever explain what a "mio" is when I ask them?

I don't know why is that either.

My theory is that most abbreviations here involve 3 or 4 letters, so maybe some people think that "mio" is the right way to abbreviate "milhão" (million), when it's "mi".

Btw, as a fun fact: "mio" sound very funny in a bad way in portuguese. It's how rednecks say milho (corn).



Bet with Teeqoz for 2 weeks of avatar and sig control that Super Mario Odyssey would ship more than 7m on its first 2 months. The game shipped 9.07m, so I won

bubblegamer on 24 July 2018

Bold is not the word i'd use. It will be lucky to reach 2 million.



ZODIARKrebirth on 24 July 2018

it's a great looking game, and it will get good sales, but 6 mil i find to much, 2mil are possible and that is really not bad



Amnesia on 24 July 2018

If it reaches 1 M when the switch is at 20 M, then it could do 3-4 M total because my estimation for the Switch is 60-70 M max, just because I don't believe into any hardware upgrade. Switch is the "round 2" gen 8 system. They are preparing the next system for gen 9 which will be as powerfull as a PS4 pro.



tbone51 on 24 July 2018
bubblegamer said:
Bold is not the word i'd use. It will be lucky to reach 2 million.

I wouldn't go there. 2mil seems more likelier at this point then staying at 1mil. 

Game is probably already at around 1mil ship+digital now