Forums - Nintendo Discussion - BOLD PREDICTION: Super Smash Bros Ultimate (Currently 17.68mil) Will Sell over 25mil WW Lifetime, Book IT

mZuzek said:
The amount of "10-12m at best" predictions here is truly staggering.

Oh yeah, they truly are. Time to put up a wall of shame:

quickrick said:
This will be a good thread to get a few laughs in the future.

You don't know how much truth you spoke there... just probably not the kind you expected

TheBird said:
An individual title has never sold more than 13 million, this series isn't as popular or as good as you think it is. Now if you said Super Mario Bros and that game actually existed, I'd be like "Fuckin eh he's right".

Try harder next time

FarleyMcFirefly said:
I'm thinking 15 million tops. Brawl did what, 13 million on a 100 million install base?

TranceformerFX said:
25 Million units? Lol... That's ridiculous dude. Call of Duty barely reaches those numbers now, and that's multi-platform.

I don't know of a SINGLE, platform exclusive fighting game that has reached that kind of milestone.

You're grossly exaggerating Super Smash's brand potential. It'll sell (probably) 10 - 12 million units lifetime.

Wright said:

While I don't have any specific WW number myself in mind (I'll just state 9m, to leave a prediction behind), there's no chance that a Smash Bros game sells more than the two best-selling games on Switch (two Mario games, more specifically) combined. Not even Brawl could break the 15m barrier.

Beaten at lunch month, ouch!

Pavolink said:
My prediction is around 14-15m LTD.
But who knows ¯_(ツ)_/¯

Podings said:
Smash was never as accessible as Mario Kart.

I have a hard time seeing it break 15 million. But I'd love to be surprised. Digital might catch me off guard.

Harkins1721 said:
12 million tops.

zorg1000 said:
Doubt it, 15m+ seems plausible.

Et tu, Brute? Didn't expect you to not believe in TBone

OTBWY said:

I think it can make the 15 million mark. That's my boldest prediction. 

Mr_No said:
It will probably sell around 10 to 12 million units. Probably even slightly less.

Well Mister, no! Unless you meant for launch...

PwerlvlAmy said:
im gonna say 15m

And that's just from the first 100 posts...

Last edited by Bofferbrauer2 - on 02 November 2019

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This thread is gold.

This thread is gold.


Wright said:
Nautilus said:

Sure.Just make sure you dont regret later, mu boy!

Wanna bet over what?

One week of avatar/signature control.

You win if Smash reaches/surpasses 20m LT.

I win if Smash's sales fails to meet the above criteria.

It's a draw if it ends somewhere near (like above 18.5m), because I feel like either bet was justified in that case.

How's that?

waiting for the bet resolution

Agente42 said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:
A lot of people are underestimating Smash sales, because they are severely underestimating Switch sales. The biggest reason that tbone51 can make "ridiculous" prediction threads and be right is because the market is very enthusiastic for the Switch. What tbone51 knows is that the Switch is going to be much more successful than the average person is guessing. So he can keep making these prediction threads, and then he'll keep making people eat crow until they realize that several unprecedented predictions for software mean tremendous sales for hardware.

Average you mean hardcore player. The Switch had a strong first year, so the three next year can be strong thanks to the first year. The first year of a consoles is vital to its healthy survival in its life cycle. However, the console can not be abandoned like the Wii in five years, Nintendo needs to maintain steadly support until after the successor hits the market.

My prediction : 14.5-21 M LTD with digital sales

Eat crow

my wrong prediction 

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Don't mess with Tbone, you'll pay for your insolence (pliz someone catch the quote). This thread is a double platinum lol

Zanark best Inazuma Eleven pg

Proud to be the first cool Nintendo fan ever

Number ONE Zelda fan in the Universe

DKCTF didn't move consoles

Prediction: No Zelda HD for Wii U, quietly moved to the succesor

Predictions for Nintendo NX and Mobile

Only 7.32mil Left to go

Prediction estimate

2020: 2.8mil
2021: 2.2mil
2022: 1.4mil
2023+ 1mil

tbone51 said:
Just FYI if SSBU has slightly less BotW legs next year itll look something like this....


2018: 12.08mil
2019: 1730k + 920k + 800k + 1350k (16.88mil)
2020: 825k + 625k + 725k + 1125k (20.21mil)
2021: 500k + 450k + 500k + 950k (22.61mil)
2022: 250k + 200k + 225k + 475k (23.86mil)
2023.....end of time: 500k (24mil+) lol

Holy shit, it's tracking ahead of this prediction! By almost a million! And there's more DLC to come, at least a year's worth, so it's momentum isn't going anywhere any time soon. 20 million is a lock at this point. 25 million quite doable. It will definitely end up closer to your prediction than to the lowballers' predictions.

Gonna sell between 25-30 million lifetime, glad we had the same prediction.

2020 predictions: NSW 21m, PS5 6m, XSX 4.5m, PS4 9m, XB1 3m
(PS5 and XSX predictions will most likely change after we know enough about them)