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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - BOLD PREDICTION: Super Smash Bros Ultimate (Currently 17.68mil) Will Sell over 25mil WW Lifetime, Book IT

Wyrdness on 18 December 2018

Looking like a possible 10m in December alone, didn't someone at some point make a bet that only 5m at most would be moved in December? It's pretty much beaten that in 11 days.



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Bofferbrauer2 on 18 December 2018
Wyrdness said:
Looking like a possible 10m in December alone, didn't someone at some point make a bet that only 5m at most would be moved in December? It's pretty much beaten that in 11 days.

Imagine if it sold over 5M in December... in the US alone!



The Nintendo eShop rating Thread: http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=237454 List as Google Doc:  https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1aW2hXQT1TheElVS7z-F3pP-7nbqdrDqWNTxl6JoJWBY/edit?usp=sharing

The Steam/GOG key gifting thread: https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/242024/the-steamgog-key-gifting-thread/1/ 

Free Pc Games thread: https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/248138/free-pc-games/1/

wombat123 on 18 December 2018
Wyrdness said:
Looking like a possible 10m in December alone, didn't someone at some point make a bet that only 5m at most would be moved in December? It's pretty much beaten that in 11 days.

Wasn't that the guy that got banned for constantly throwing out negative Nintendo hot takes and then adjusting them whenever it was obvious he was going to be wrong?



Wyrdness on 18 December 2018
wombat123 said:
Wyrdness said:
Looking like a possible 10m in December alone, didn't someone at some point make a bet that only 5m at most would be moved in December? It's pretty much beaten that in 11 days.

Wasn't that the guy that got banned for constantly throwing out negative Nintendo hot takes and then adjusting them whenever it was obvious he was going to be wrong?

Nah that was CliffRick at least I think that's him as he fits that description don't know if the other guy is banned or not.



Bofferbrauer2 on 16 January 2019

 

TranceformerFX said:
25 Million units? Lol... That's ridiculous dude. Call of Duty barely reaches those numbers now, and that's multi-platform.

I don't know of a SINGLE, platform exclusive fighting game that has reached that kind of milestone.

You're grossly exaggerating Super Smash's brand potential. It'll sell (probably) 10 - 12 million units lifetime.

 

quickrick said:
tbone51 said:

Wanna post your low prediction so you don't laugh to hard? 

10-12 million LTD. 

 

Wright said:

While I don't have any specific WW number myself in mind (I'll just state 9m, to leave a prediction behind), there's no chance that a Smash Bros game sells more than the two best-selling games on Switch (two Mario games, more specifically) combined. Not even Brawl could break the 15m barrier.

 

Harkins1721 said:
12 million tops.

 

Mr_No said:
It will probably sell around 10 to 12 million units. Probably even slightly less.

 

Jumpin said:

I don't see that happening.

1. Despite having a full roster, like SB4, there doesn't appear to be much improvement. With Mario Kart, there was a TON of improvement from N64 to Wii; and while there was decline on the Gamecube, people recognized MK Cubed was a stop gap game with all its BS and sloppy design, and that the next real Mario Kart was the Wii version.

2. I don't think the fanbase expanded from Brawl, it seems to have peaked there. It grew between Melee and Brawl, obviously. With Mario Kart, a LOT of non-N64 owners played the game multiplayer, and those gamers later bought DSs and Wiis, and each of them bought Mario Kart.

3. The Switch demographic hasn't expanded significantly in the local multiplayer fanbase from the Wii, despite its increased capabilities for local multiplayer.

That all said, I would say Smash peaked on Wii, and it won't get above those numbers on Switch. At best it will slightly exceed them - and that's only if there's some kind of unforseen renewed interest in popularity. I don't think it'll be far behind, but 13M is a hard barrier, it'll be closer to 10 or 11M, and probably not for a while either, as many of those buys will be "down the road for my collection because I own a Switch" buys.

 

TranceformerFX said:
Not a single fighting game in the history of it's medium has sold 25 Million units lifetime. Not any Mortal Kombats, not any Soul Caliburs, not even Street Fighter 2 sold that many.

10 - 15 Million lifetime would best case scenario.
7 - 9 Million lifetime will likely be the reality.

25 Million though? Yeah, maybe in treeland....


Well, those are probably already all outshipped, if not even outsold by now



The Nintendo eShop rating Thread: http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=237454 List as Google Doc:  https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1aW2hXQT1TheElVS7z-F3pP-7nbqdrDqWNTxl6JoJWBY/edit?usp=sharing

The Steam/GOG key gifting thread: https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/242024/the-steamgog-key-gifting-thread/1/ 

Free Pc Games thread: https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/248138/free-pc-games/1/

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LGBTDBZBBQ on 17 January 2019
Bofferbrauer2 said:

 

TranceformerFX said:
25 Million units? Lol... That's ridiculous dude. Call of Duty barely reaches those numbers now, and that's multi-platform.

I don't know of a SINGLE, platform exclusive fighting game that has reached that kind of milestone.

You're grossly exaggerating Super Smash's brand potential. It'll sell (probably) 10 - 12 million units lifetime.

 

quickrick said:

10-12 million LTD. 

 

Wright said:

While I don't have any specific WW number myself in mind (I'll just state 9m, to leave a prediction behind), there's no chance that a Smash Bros game sells more than the two best-selling games on Switch (two Mario games, more specifically) combined. Not even Brawl could break the 15m barrier.

 

Harkins1721 said:
12 million tops.

 

Mr_No said:
It will probably sell around 10 to 12 million units. Probably even slightly less.

 

Jumpin said:

I don't see that happening.

1. Despite having a full roster, like SB4, there doesn't appear to be much improvement. With Mario Kart, there was a TON of improvement from N64 to Wii; and while there was decline on the Gamecube, people recognized MK Cubed was a stop gap game with all its BS and sloppy design, and that the next real Mario Kart was the Wii version.

2. I don't think the fanbase expanded from Brawl, it seems to have peaked there. It grew between Melee and Brawl, obviously. With Mario Kart, a LOT of non-N64 owners played the game multiplayer, and those gamers later bought DSs and Wiis, and each of them bought Mario Kart.

3. The Switch demographic hasn't expanded significantly in the local multiplayer fanbase from the Wii, despite its increased capabilities for local multiplayer.

That all said, I would say Smash peaked on Wii, and it won't get above those numbers on Switch. At best it will slightly exceed them - and that's only if there's some kind of unforseen renewed interest in popularity. I don't think it'll be far behind, but 13M is a hard barrier, it'll be closer to 10 or 11M, and probably not for a while either, as many of those buys will be "down the road for my collection because I own a Switch" buys.

 

TranceformerFX said:
Not a single fighting game in the history of it's medium has sold 25 Million units lifetime. Not any Mortal Kombats, not any Soul Caliburs, not even Street Fighter 2 sold that many.

10 - 15 Million lifetime would best case scenario.
7 - 9 Million lifetime will likely be the reality.

25 Million though? Yeah, maybe in treeland....


Well, those are probably already all outshipped, if not even outsold by now

Their LTD prediction = 1-month of Smash Ultimate sales number. 



tbone51 on 17 January 2019

This is too bold, pls delete thread



Bofferbrauer2 on 17 January 2019
tbone51 said:
This is too bold, pls delete thread

Hahahaha, nice one



The Nintendo eShop rating Thread: http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=237454 List as Google Doc:  https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1aW2hXQT1TheElVS7z-F3pP-7nbqdrDqWNTxl6JoJWBY/edit?usp=sharing

The Steam/GOG key gifting thread: https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/242024/the-steamgog-key-gifting-thread/1/ 

Free Pc Games thread: https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/248138/free-pc-games/1/

Bofferbrauer2 on 25 April 2019

13.81M, on the way to 25M



The Nintendo eShop rating Thread: http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=237454 List as Google Doc:  https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1aW2hXQT1TheElVS7z-F3pP-7nbqdrDqWNTxl6JoJWBY/edit?usp=sharing

The Steam/GOG key gifting thread: https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/242024/the-steamgog-key-gifting-thread/1/ 

Free Pc Games thread: https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/248138/free-pc-games/1/

Mnementh on 25 April 2019
Mnementh said:
OK, a TBone-prediction. I think it is bold, but that was true for earlier predictions of him. So I say I wait and see. Personally I think Smash can easily break 15M. Maybe it can reach to 20M. 25M seems so much.

It was wise of me to be reluctant to call T-Bone crazy. I was right about how easy it gets to 15M, should be happen even before the holidays. 20M now seems like a good possibility, and 25M doesn't look completely impossible now.



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