Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Analyzing Nintendo's yearly output over the last 22 years, shows they create 2.7 quality exclusives per year.

So, after coming to terms with the fact that Nintendo will only have a single AAA exclusive for all of 2018, I've decided to compare previous years. Maybe this way, I can get some sort of insight into how many high-quality games we can expect Nintendo to make for the Switch. I'm not counting games made by companies that Nintendo no longer owns, so no Goldeneye. I'm using gamerankings, because they have the easiest way to navigate through years. I included all Nintendo developed games with a ranking of 80% or higher, and at least 10 reviews. 

1996
Super Mario 64
Wave Race 64

1997
Starfox 64
Mario Kart 64

1998
F-Zero X
Ocarina of Time

1999
Mario Golf
Super Smash Bros. (Yeah I know it's not rated highly, but it was obviously a hugely influential game. In retrospect a true classic, no matter what critics at the time said.)

2000
Mario Tennis
Poke'mon Puzzle League
Excitebike 64
Mario Tennis
Majora's Mask


2001
Paper Mario
Super Smash Bros. Melee
Wave Race Blue Storm
Pikmin

2002
Metroid Prime
Super Mario Sunshine
Animal Crossing? (Not sure if I should count this one. Isn't it a port of an N64 game?)

2003
Mario Kart Double Dash
Windwaker
F-Zero GX

2004
Mario Power Tennis
Paper Mario: Thousand Year Door
Metroid Prime 2
Pikmin 2
Zelda: Four Swords


2005
Fire Emblem Path of Radiance
Donkey Kong Jungle Beat

2006
Twilight Princess

2007
Super Mario Galaxy
Metroid Prime 3
Super Paper Mario

2008
Brawl
Mario Kart Wii

2009
New Super Mario Bros.
Punch Out!
Wii Sports Resort

2010
Sin and Punishment Star Successor
DKC Returns
Super Mario Galaxy 2
Kirby's Epic Yarn

2011
Kirby's Return to Dreamland
Xenoblade Chronicles
Skyward Sword

2012
NSMBU

2013
3D World
Pikmin 3

2014
Mario Kart 8
Tropical Freeze
Treasure Tracker
Smash 4

2015
Xenoblade Chronicles X
Splatoon
Super Mario Maker

2016
Not. A. God. Damned. Thing.

2017
Super Mario Odyssey
Splatoon 2
Breath of the Wild
Xenoblade Chronicles 2

So what does all this mean? Well there were 60 quality games over the course of 22 years (At least when just counting home consoles). So Nintendo's 1st and 2nd party output on average is 2.7 games a year. Some years only have one game, and other years we get four games. 2017 was a really good year, giving us four great games (and one evergreen port), but 2016 was abysmal, with no games. 

How does Nintendo's merging of it's handheld development studios factor into all this? Well it's really hard to say. Going from making games on 3DS to making games on Switch is a massive leap in workload. I'm sure we'll see all the usual handheld franchises like Fire Emblem, Animal Crossing, and Poke'mon, but beyond that I have no clue. 

Overall, I think we can expect 15-19 new quality exclusives from Nintendo (counting what is already out) for Switch over the course of its 6-7 year life cycle. The math I used to come to this conclusion was 2.7 ((average output) x 6 (years)) + 3 (Those three handheld carryover franchises from 3DS). 

BTW, if you think only getting 2 quality games a year is bad, I advise you not to buy a Switch. Because, historically Nintendo puts out 1-4 quality games a year for it's main system, and it's not guaranteed that all of them will interest you, personally. 

Edit: Bolded the part that tells, how I formed this list. Hopefully that will clear up some confusion. Feel free to make your own lists if you like. 

Edit: Bolded the part that informs people why I didn't include handheld games in this analysis. TIL people don't read the OP. 

Last edited by Cerebralbore101 - on 23 June 2018

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For 2016, there was Paper Mario Color Splash, and although it isn't favored by fans, it's still a very quality game. And what about 2017's ARMS? What really is your definition of Quality in this sense?



2018 is going to have 1 title.



The omissions and inclusions of certain titles...

I mean Pokemon Puzzle League? I feel like what your using to classify as a quality title isn't very suitable. 

Also are you going to just leave out Nintendo's biggest sector, handhelds?



Ljink96 said:
For 2016, there was Paper Mario Color Splash, and although it isn't favored by fans, it's still a very quality game. And what about 2017's ARMS? What really is your definition of Quality in this sense?

According to the OP, he is only counting games above a certain score, barring a few exceptions.I guess both ARMS and Color Splash didnt make the cut.



My (locked) thread about how difficulty should be a decision for the developers, not the gamers.

https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=241866&page=1

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Green098 said:

The omissions and inclusions of certain titles...

I mean Pokemon Puzzle League? I feel like what your using to classify as a quality title isn't very suitable. 

Also are you going to just leave out Nintendo's biggest sector, handhelds?

Well, quality is subjective. I just went off of what gamerankings had listed for my specific searches. 

I might add handhelds later tonight. The problem, though is that I'm not sure how to factor them in. I mean, making a handheld game isn't anywhere near as labor intensive as making a console game. Should three handheld games count as one console game? Maybe four? Or two? I have no clue. :P



The sentence below is false. 
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This list is all over the place and terrible.

You include previous entries of Mario Tennis but exclude the one that just released yesterday from this years list.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

Ljink96 said:
For 2016, there was Paper Mario Color Splash, and although it isn't favored by fans, it's still a very quality game. And what about 2017's ARMS? What really is your definition of Quality in this sense?

Minimum of 10 reviews, and scoring at least 80%. Arbitrary I know, but we've got to start somewhere. 



The sentence below is false. 
The sentence above is true. 

 

So... what is the point of this thread?



Cerebralbore101 said:
Green098 said:

The omissions and inclusions of certain titles...

I mean Pokemon Puzzle League? I feel like what your using to classify as a quality title isn't very suitable. 

Also are you going to just leave out Nintendo's biggest sector, handhelds?

Well, quality is subjective. I just went off of what gamerankings had listed for my specific searches. 

I might add handhelds later tonight. The problem, though is that I'm not sure how to factor them in. I mean, making a handheld game isn't anywhere near as labor intensive as making a console game. Should three handheld games count as one console game? Maybe four? Or two? I have no clue. :P

I know but anyway as for handheld games, quality doesn't always equal how technically capable or how big a budget it has. I'm sure games like Animal Crossing New Leaf had more time effort put into than it New Super Mario Bros U.