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Forums - Sales Discussion - What will PS4 sell through for CY and ship during FY 2018?

The PS4, according to VGChartz has sold 5.1 million so far in 4 months of the year. It's slightly behind last year I believe, which was it's peak sell through year so far with 20.2 million units. It's possible it could even end up selling more this year based on the current sales, but with Sony's recent anouncement that they plan on shipping only 16 million PS4's until March 31st 2019, it begs the question wether they even have faith that momentum will carry on strong for the rest of the year.

Say PS4 sells through 20 million for 2018 (which isn't totally out of the question so far), that would put it's total sales at 93.6 million by January 2019. But if they only ship 16 million this FY that would put shipments at 95 million by March 31st 2019, which actually sounds more like what would have shipped by the end of the CY assuming it sold through the 20 million. Are they low-balling it here?

So the question is, what do you think seems realistic for PS4's sell through this CY, and it's shipments for the FY? I'll go first.

Sell through by December 31st 2018 = 92.6 million (19 million CY)

Shipments by December 31st 2018 = 94 million (18.5 million CY)

Shipments by March 31st 2019 = 97 million (18 million from 79 million Mar 31 2018)

I'm not sure what PS4's traction will be like for the rest of the year, but it definately has bigger releases this year both first and third party which might help push it above 2017 for all we know. But maybe they care more about money, so they won't push deals and price cuts? hence the low-balling shipment estimate?

Your thoughts?

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So far, there is no reason for Sony's projection to send 16 million, even though it has about 2 million extras already on the market.
It's the kind of projection that wants to reveal something, whether it's new hardware in concurrent production or even some production line problem.
The feeling is that if sony put 20 million pieces and follow the 2017 script, it will sell again just the same.
Now, if the sony count is 16 through March 31, 2019 plus those 4 already sold, it would again bring sales close to 20 million annually. So, until January 1, 2019, 90 or 91 million and for fiscal year 2018, 95 or 96 million adding some ps4 lost around the world.

Last edited by gemini_d@rk - on 20 May 2018

I think in PS4 will surpass the 20.2 million mark set in 2017. Right now this is what it looks like for sell through numbers for this CY versus last CY:

calendar year 2017 calendar year 2018
Q1 2.9 million 2.5 million
Q2 3.3 million -
Q3 4.2 million -
Q4 9.0 million -

Yes, as of the end of Q1 (March 31, 2018), 2018 is trailing 2017 by 400k units. 

However, by that time in 2017, Sony's premiere Spring exclusive, Horizon Zero Dawn was already out for a full month, while this year's god of war (which is having a much bigger opening that Horizon) isn't out yet for the same time period for 2018. Q3 will house the much anticipated launch of Spiderman, which is sure help in moving additional PS4's. Q4 will have Red Dead Redemption 2 (first rockstar game this gen), COD Black Ops IIII (biggest sub-brand for the series), Battlefield V, and potentially the Division II and Project Starfield from Bethesda.

Bet with Intrinsic:

The Switch will outsell 3DS (based on VGchartz numbers), according to me, while Intrinsic thinks the opposite will hold true. One month avatar control for the loser's avatar.

I think Sony has something big to reveal with the whole 16M FY2018 projection. There must be an announcement coming sometime in the next few months that is going to distract people from buying the current form PS4. That said, I expect them to hit or slightly exceed the 16M mark they are projecting, in the offcial numbers.

On the sell through side for CY2018, I think we are looking another YoY increase. Nothing significant, maybe 21 - 22M. With God of War, Detroit, Spider-Man, and Red Dead on the games side, and the continued growth of Vue in the broader market, I think there is pleanty to drive new PS4 users. A price drop to $249.99, with Holiday sales at $199.99 or lower along with the mentioned motivators, should put it over.

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