The PS4, according to VGChartz has sold 5.1 million so far in 4 months of the year. It's slightly behind last year I believe, which was it's peak sell through year so far with 20.2 million units. It's possible it could even end up selling more this year based on the current sales, but with Sony's recent anouncement that they plan on shipping only 16 million PS4's until March 31st 2019, it begs the question wether they even have faith that momentum will carry on strong for the rest of the year.
Say PS4 sells through 20 million for 2018 (which isn't totally out of the question so far), that would put it's total sales at 93.6 million by January 2019. But if they only ship 16 million this FY that would put shipments at 95 million by March 31st 2019, which actually sounds more like what would have shipped by the end of the CY assuming it sold through the 20 million. Are they low-balling it here?
So the question is, what do you think seems realistic for PS4's sell through this CY, and it's shipments for the FY? I'll go first.
Sell through by December 31st 2018 = 92.6 million (19 million CY)
Shipments by December 31st 2018 = 94 million (18.5 million CY)
Shipments by March 31st 2019 = 97 million (18 million from 79 million Mar 31 2018)
I'm not sure what PS4's traction will be like for the rest of the year, but it definately has bigger releases this year both first and third party which might help push it above 2017 for all we know. But maybe they care more about money, so they won't push deals and price cuts? hence the low-balling shipment estimate?